This is not intended to offend nor brag, I just want to shed some light and give some personal thoughts.
I've made over 400k GBP betting on niche markets via modelling (i'm a data scientist)
Everytime I check this forum the only thing I see people talk about is Arbing and value betting.
In my opinion this is not "sharp" activity which this forum claims to be about. Why? well its just simply a waste of accounts, you wont typically make more than a few hundred euros doing these strategies before getting the account restricted.
I consider arbers/value bettors to be not much ahead of "mug punters"
If you want to make a living in betting you need to find your niche, think outside the box and backtest, backtest and backtest more.
My unpopular opinion as a successful esports bettor
- jroyales
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arbusers
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First, I had to modify your post a little bit, to protect you and the forum. I am sure you understand why.
Secondly, I have huge respect for data and computer science. That would be my field If I was starting today.
A number of members mentioned several times that esports come with a lot of chances, and I believe them (and you of course) being true. However, this type of betting didn't find much popularity in our members, partially because of their (our) mindset. At the same time we did not observe any mass influx of members who are active in esports willing to talk about it.
I encourage you to describe your experiences and share your knowledge in this field.
Even though arbing and value betting are indeed many steps ahead the square bettor, we never said they are the crest of smart betting. Of course there are other ways of smart betting too.
A very distinct member of the old forum had a signature saying ''who cares who wins''. That was/is rare wisdom that I later found in Ben Graham's book. The challenge for the smart bettor is not to find the technique to beat the bookmakers, but rather to prevent himself from being his own worst enemy. To be a smart bettor, (or should I say Intelligent), you must also refuse to judge your success by how a bunch of total strangers are doing. The arber and the value bettor is not one penny poorer if someone like you beats the bookmaker in esports. Smart betting is not about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.
That said, I thank you for your post!
Re: My unpopular opinion as a successful esports bettor
jroyales wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:11 pmThis is not intended to offend nor brag, I just want to shed some light and give some personal thoughts.
I've made over 400k GBP betting on niche markets via modelling (i'm a data scientist)
Everytime I check this forum the only thing I see people talk about is Arbing and value betting.
In my opinion this is not "sharp" activity which this forum claims to be about. Why? well its just simply a waste of accounts, you wont typically make more than a few hundred euros doing these strategies before getting the account restricted.
I consider arbers/value bettors to be not much ahead of "mug punters"
If you want to make a living in betting you need to find your niche, think outside the box and backtest, backtest and backtest more.
First, I had to modify your post a little bit, to protect you and the forum. I am sure you understand why.
Secondly, I have huge respect for data and computer science. That would be my field If I was starting today.
A number of members mentioned several times that esports come with a lot of chances, and I believe them (and you of course) being true. However, this type of betting didn't find much popularity in our members, partially because of their (our) mindset. At the same time we did not observe any mass influx of members who are active in esports willing to talk about it.
I encourage you to describe your experiences and share your knowledge in this field.
Even though arbing and value betting are indeed many steps ahead the square bettor, we never said they are the crest of smart betting. Of course there are other ways of smart betting too.
A very distinct member of the old forum had a signature saying ''who cares who wins''. That was/is rare wisdom that I later found in Ben Graham's book. The challenge for the smart bettor is not to find the technique to beat the bookmakers, but rather to prevent himself from being his own worst enemy. To be a smart bettor, (or should I say Intelligent), you must also refuse to judge your success by how a bunch of total strangers are doing. The arber and the value bettor is not one penny poorer if someone like you beats the bookmaker in esports. Smart betting is not about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.
That said, I thank you for your post!
- VidaBlue
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I am sure that many will not find that neither unpopular, nor bragging nor offensive.
I made scrapers of unpublished esports odds some years ago. I found the bookmakers' models very inaccurate as they would often vary so much compared to eachother. Much more than in other traditional sports.
My "career plan" was to end up doing modelling as well (I'm a data scientist), but I got stuck with shop betting for much longer than I had anticipated. Simply because (thinking outside the box) perfectioning and streamlining this branch seemed to be an easy way to profits with the environment at my disposal. Whether this was a good decision compared to going straight to modelling is impossible to tell.
Re: My unpopular opinion as a successful esports bettor
It is great to hear from someone who is making profits in esports via modelling. Would you be so generous as to provide some stats? (number of bets, yield, which esports, which bettypes, live or prematch, etc...). And where do you place your money?jroyales wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:11 pmThis is not intended to offend nor brag, I just want to shed some light and give some personal thoughts.
I've made over 400k GBP betting on niche markets via modelling (i'm a data scientist)
Everytime I check this forum the only thing I see people talk about is Arbing and value betting.
In my opinion this is not "sharp" activity which this forum claims to be about. Why? well its just simply a waste of accounts, you wont typically make more than a few hundred euros doing these strategies before getting the account restricted.
I consider arbers/value bettors to be not much ahead of "mug punters"
If you want to make a living in betting you need to find your niche, think outside the box and backtest, backtest and backtest more.
I am sure that many will not find that neither unpopular, nor bragging nor offensive.
I made scrapers of unpublished esports odds some years ago. I found the bookmakers' models very inaccurate as they would often vary so much compared to eachother. Much more than in other traditional sports.
My "career plan" was to end up doing modelling as well (I'm a data scientist), but I got stuck with shop betting for much longer than I had anticipated. Simply because (thinking outside the box) perfectioning and streamlining this branch seemed to be an easy way to profits with the environment at my disposal. Whether this was a good decision compared to going straight to modelling is impossible to tell.
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arb12
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Very well said.
Although I can't comment professionally on your markets (you mentioned e-sports), let me share some thoughts.
- The backtesting is vividly tracing the viability and sustainability of newly created ideas by you and rejecting poor ideas. New iterations follow - to test your further new ideas and so on;
- So far so good, but the main problem here is that this is purely retrospective "confirmed" and nothing is guaranteed in the foreseeable future. That's why all approved ideas are simultaneously tested in practice (I mean future events) through the Alpha and Beta stages of the Models you create. New iterations are coming and so on;
- Those almost parallel stages described above generated an extremely large RAW database. The main problem here is creating further extremely reliable estimations based on the initial and further Statistical processing;
- An extremely high level of expertise in a given kind of sport (fundamental analysis) and the related dozens of markets (technical analysis) are indispensable nowadays;
- The Pareto Principle and other quick methods help here due to lack of time, but you pay the price here, i.e. lost jewels every now and then. That's visible retrospectively, of course.
Naturally, the ideal occasion is when you have all the unlimited time to pre-analyze, backtestings, Stats processing for every given occasion and so on;
- Another problem is when exactly you are absolutely sure that the Beta Model should turn into a proven working Model and load the markets to the brim;
- Not to mention, when the core of some of the Models in use are obsolete. Here is when you have to make lots of decisions - if your newly invented Model is still in Alpha/Beta testings (i.e. not so reliable) , would you load the old Model with new tune-ups, or take the risk and change the Model core? Again the eternal lack-of-time-problem, and so forth;
- The unusual delta/difference of some Stats parameters you've gathered should be deeply analyzed - is it time to change some of your methods, or even the delta in some specific parameters - is that a possible warning for a possible fixed market (you should avoid that market at any cost), and so on;
- When you mention niche markets - each niche is like no other and each player can write a PhD thesis based on her/his observations and specifics. But I'm sure one of the most important Stats tools for every player is one that can detect the very early change associated with that niche.
And so on.
Re: My unpopular opinion as a successful esports bettor
Very well said.
Although I can't comment professionally on your markets (you mentioned e-sports), let me share some thoughts.
- The backtesting is vividly tracing the viability and sustainability of newly created ideas by you and rejecting poor ideas. New iterations follow - to test your further new ideas and so on;
- So far so good, but the main problem here is that this is purely retrospective "confirmed" and nothing is guaranteed in the foreseeable future. That's why all approved ideas are simultaneously tested in practice (I mean future events) through the Alpha and Beta stages of the Models you create. New iterations are coming and so on;
- Those almost parallel stages described above generated an extremely large RAW database. The main problem here is creating further extremely reliable estimations based on the initial and further Statistical processing;
- An extremely high level of expertise in a given kind of sport (fundamental analysis) and the related dozens of markets (technical analysis) are indispensable nowadays;
- The Pareto Principle and other quick methods help here due to lack of time, but you pay the price here, i.e. lost jewels every now and then. That's visible retrospectively, of course.
Naturally, the ideal occasion is when you have all the unlimited time to pre-analyze, backtestings, Stats processing for every given occasion and so on;
- Another problem is when exactly you are absolutely sure that the Beta Model should turn into a proven working Model and load the markets to the brim;
- Not to mention, when the core of some of the Models in use are obsolete. Here is when you have to make lots of decisions - if your newly invented Model is still in Alpha/Beta testings (i.e. not so reliable) , would you load the old Model with new tune-ups, or take the risk and change the Model core? Again the eternal lack-of-time-problem, and so forth;
- The unusual delta/difference of some Stats parameters you've gathered should be deeply analyzed - is it time to change some of your methods, or even the delta in some specific parameters - is that a possible warning for a possible fixed market (you should avoid that market at any cost), and so on;
- When you mention niche markets - each niche is like no other and each player can write a PhD thesis based on her/his observations and specifics. But I'm sure one of the most important Stats tools for every player is one that can detect the very early change associated with that niche.
And so on.
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