Negative Middle\Side

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
risilloch
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 24
Posts: 124
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:54 pm

Negative Middle\Side

Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:47 pm

hi guys,
    can anyone give me a steer on how I can factor in the probability of a middle landing when deciding whether to take a negative middle.

At the moment I have a blanket rule that applies to all situations - if the loss is greater than 1% of total stake then ignore.

But it has occurred to me that I should be trying to factor in the likelihood of the middle landing
  eg Totals
          O(3)  vs U(3.5)          in soccer

          O(174.5) vs U(175)        in volleyball

Even though the range between the two limits is 0.5 in both situations, it is obvious that there is a much better chance of the soccer middle
landing than the volleyball. Consequently I should be reckoning to accept greater losses as the likelihood of the middle landing is much greater.

So something like if loss is < 10% in soccer go for the middle, if loss is <1% in volleyball go for the middle.

I am wondering if there is a useful algorithm I can use.

Also is there something similar for handicaps (spreads)?
ajeto
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 22
Posts: 207
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:30 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:27 pm

Just quick thought, its obvious that the factor is connected to statistic. Question is how many times in a long run will case A hit and how many times in long run will case B hit. If the middle cost less(in %) than its the potential win (in %) based on statistics. Than you have EV+ middle.
User avatar
Cretan
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 11
Posts: 50
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2011 9:50 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:30 pm

I agree with ajeto, it's all about stats.

If supposed that exactly 3 goals has about 25% (it's just a number, the real stat changes on every game), then if you find a middle of -3% for 0,5 goal, this middle has a great value. Of course there is important if the winning odd (in your example the under 3,5 side) has big odds
bernie74
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:21 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:56 am

Personally my rules :

For soccer :
AH or OU : 0.25 point ->  -3,-4%

For basket :
AH : 0.5p ->  -0.5%
AH : 1p -> -1%
AH : more 1,5p -> more -3%
OU : 0.5 p - 1.5p -> positif middle
OU : more 2p -> -2%

For foot american : same basket

Currently ,that s work !
bernie74
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:21 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Thu Dec 29, 2011 7:31 pm

Some "expert" can give some idea about middles ? :)
bernie74
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:21 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:47 pm

no return about middles ?
I want  to know if i went in the good way.

example : go or not go ?

Hemofarm vs Crvena Zvezda OU: -159 1.909
Hemofarm vs Crvena Zvezda OU :+ 157 2.03
Return - 1.6%

result : 154

In fact, i need to know if my rules are too large or too tight ! :)
Thanks
Last edited by bernie74 on Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
uknow
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 15
Posts: 140
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2011 6:40 am

Re: Negative Middle\Side

Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:30 pm

I think that is really hard to say. Personally I only play +0.0% middles. I don´t know how many middles you have played already, but with a good amount (~1000) you could make some good calculations. Just calculate how often a line was hit exactly, with 1 point difference, 2 points and so on. Then you could evaluate how long the middle is value.

Return to “Arbing, matched betting and trading talk”