Arbusers

hi guys i need to confirm something here.

I think i found a spot where I can arbitrage bet but need some more input since i'm new.

So Bookie A has Argentina -1 corner at 1.8
Bookie B has Croatia +1.25 corner at 2.03

Now if I bet 2000 on both side.
2000 x 1.8 = 1600
2000 x 2.03 = 2060

Basically 4 outcomes.
Equal amount of corners it's +60
Croatia ends with more corners it's +60
Argentina only has 1 corner over Croatia it's +1030
Argentina has 2+ corners over Croatia it's -400

is my thinking correct?
And if it were you, how would you utlize this opportunity (if it's a opportunity at all)

and ps, if i bet 3000 on Croatia 2000 on argentina the result would be +1090 +1090 +1545 -1400

and last question, if there a arbitrage calculater for this kind spot?

thanks in advance!!!

You can call it arb but obviously these two odds produce loss. However, you re aiming to hit precisely Argentina more by 1 corner. Therefore, it is a bet so-called Middle. Morefurther, you re looking whether is there value in Argentina more corners by 1 but we'll come to that.

First you can do is to rethink staking plan. In similar cases I would personally apply the following:

100/1.80=55.55
100/2.03=49.26
Total staked=104.81

There are few possible outcomes, like you already wrote.

Equal : Return=100; Profit=-4.81
Croatia more : Return 100; Profit=-4.81
Argentina more by 1 : Return=130,18; Profit=25.37
Argentina more by 2 or more : Return=100; Profit=-4.81

So, risking 4.81 to hit Argentina more corners by 1 makes you a profit 25.37 respectively @5.27 (25.37/4.81).

The main question here is: does @5.27 present fair, overpriced either underpriced odd for Argentina to have exactly 1 corner more then Croatia.

I'm not a corner expert but looking at first I would have doubts that this specific bet occurs in 18.96% or more situations, which is needed to have a value.

Maybe I'm wrong. I guess a historic data might help a bit.

hi first of all, thanks for your detailed reply!

But there’re a few problems with the reply

Consider we bet 1 unit per side
It’s 0.8 unit
And 1.03 unit payout

At equal we 1.03 - 1 = +0.03 unit
Croatia has more corner we are 1.03 - 1 = +0.03 u
Argentina has exact 1 over, it’s 1.03/2 = +0.515
Argentina has 2 or more it’s 0.8 - 1 = -0.2 unit

Or am I delusional lol

Regarding the calculation you re not delusional.

You risk 0.2 to win 0.03 for two scenarios (in other words, backing @1.15), or to win 0.515 in third scenario (backing @2.78)

So be aware that aproach is not delusional.
Good luck

Btw, check your bookie which offers Argentina -1.
It might be a so-called european handicap which is then actually -1.5 ah

dataofsport wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:12 pm

Btw, check your bookie which offers Argentina -1.
It might be a so-called european handicap which is then actually -1.5 ah

Hi yes it's -1 corner asian handicap

matter of fact the odds rose to -1.5 corner @1.9 the very next day

I hedged it today with 3000 bet on +1.5 corner @1.95 (2000 on argentina)

basically 4 outcomes
Draw i'm +850
Argentina +2 i'm -1400
Argentina +1 i'm +2850
Croatia wins i'm +850

finger crossed for tomorrow

also probably have to figure it out how to hedge in live game......

in the past I would have had a bet on Argentina +2 given the situation, my friend, don't give gifts, I hope you close your bet but this is not smartbetting in the medium to long term