Pinnacle lean gone?
- Littletroll1
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 4
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Pinnacle lean gone?
Has any other valuebettors noticed that the Pinnacle lean is almost gone? They are not as sharp as they used to be and for the past 5-6 months I have maybe made 0.05% profit on turnover. This is over more than 50.000 livebets, so there is no variance in it. Before that I used to make 1-2% on turnover.
- mrJustice
- Has experience
- Karma: 5
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Yes Pinnacle lean no longer works like it used to. Now you need to take value bets with a big EV safety margin and that makes accounts limited fast. Getting really tough to make money using the old ways.
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 27
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My recomendation is to make an study of your betting, dividing by sport, competition, and markets....
Maybe the mistakes are just in some markets and not in all af them.
Take the data in an excel and make some filter and numbers.
If you need help extracting conclussions, just tell me.
Cheers.
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Did you bet manually or with bots?Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:18 pmHas any other valuebettors noticed that the Pinnacle lean is almost gone? They are not as sharp as they used to be and for the past 5-6 months I have maybe made 0.05% profit on turnover. This is over more than 50.000 livebets, so there is no variance in it. Before that I used to make 1-2% on turnover.
My recomendation is to make an study of your betting, dividing by sport, competition, and markets....
Maybe the mistakes are just in some markets and not in all af them.
Take the data in an excel and make some filter and numbers.
If you need help extracting conclussions, just tell me.
Cheers.
- Littletroll1
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 4
Post
I've kept detailed track of more than 20.000 of the bets. They all perform about the same unfortunately. I thought that maybe some of the lower leagues or ITF would be prone to valuetraps, but they perform just as well as Premier League and ATP/WTA.
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Most with bots, some manually.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:27 pmDid you bet manually or with bots?Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:18 pmHas any other valuebettors noticed that the Pinnacle lean is almost gone? They are not as sharp as they used to be and for the past 5-6 months I have maybe made 0.05% profit on turnover. This is over more than 50.000 livebets, so there is no variance in it. Before that I used to make 1-2% on turnover.
My recomendation is to make an study of your betting, dividing by sport, competition, and markets....
Maybe the mistakes are just in some markets and not in all af them.
Take the data in an excel and make some filter and numbers.
If you need help extracting conclussions, just tell me.
Cheers.
I've kept detailed track of more than 20.000 of the bets. They all perform about the same unfortunately. I thought that maybe some of the lower leagues or ITF would be prone to valuetraps, but they perform just as well as Premier League and ATP/WTA.
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
That’s great news for modelers though…
I think that the process so far has been: too much sharp money -> sharp books start shutting down -> pinnacle is the last man standing (see article by the man) -> pinnacle reduces limits -> smart bettors start manipulating the pinnacle price so that the books which stupidly copy it will give them better prices -> pinnacle is not so sharp anymore, but now it’s in the business of making money from sharp bettors who purposefully bet it the wrong way.
I think that the process so far has been: too much sharp money -> sharp books start shutting down -> pinnacle is the last man standing (see article by the man) -> pinnacle reduces limits -> smart bettors start manipulating the pinnacle price so that the books which stupidly copy it will give them better prices -> pinnacle is not so sharp anymore, but now it’s in the business of making money from sharp bettors who purposefully bet it the wrong way.
- polema
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
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I have seen a lot of this manipulation in volleyball games where the limits on pinnacle are very very low
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Thisex-hft wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:06 pmThat’s great news for modelers though…
I think that the process so far has been: too much sharp money -> sharp books start shutting down -> pinnacle is the last man standing (see article by the man) -> pinnacle reduces limits -> smart bettors start manipulating the pinnacle price so that the books which stupidly copy it will give them better prices -> pinnacle is not so sharp anymore, but now it’s in the business of making money from sharp bettors who purposefully bet it the wrong way.
I have seen a lot of this manipulation in volleyball games where the limits on pinnacle are very very low
- kustef
- To become a Pro
- Karma: 26
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Hi can you give me example of how bettors can manipulate lines? i need just one match to check it in history off oddspolema wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 9:08 pmThisex-hft wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:06 pmThat’s great news for modelers though…
I think that the process so far has been: too much sharp money -> sharp books start shutting down -> pinnacle is the last man standing (see article by the man) -> pinnacle reduces limits -> smart bettors start manipulating the pinnacle price so that the books which stupidly copy it will give them better prices -> pinnacle is not so sharp anymore, but now it’s in the business of making money from sharp bettors who purposefully bet it the wrong way.
I have seen a lot of this manipulation in volleyball games where the limits on pinnacle are very very low
- polema
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
Post
I remember this game, limits were as low as 20-30€ in pinnacle. Oddsportal didn't record well the odds movement thought, there was a lot of movement.
They dropped pinnacle's local line as low as they could and bet the other team in the softs before match started. A good example of how all the softs follow blindly pinnacle even with extremely low margins.
On this kind of events with very low liquidity in pinny I'd never valuebet since you don't know who is telling the truth. I arb (surebet) and move on.
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
https://www.oddsportal.com/volleyball/a ... o-rPZGunKakustef wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:54 amHi can you give me example of how bettors can manipulate lines? i need just one match to check it in history off oddspolema wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 9:08 pmThisex-hft wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:06 pmThat’s great news for modelers though…
I think that the process so far has been: too much sharp money -> sharp books start shutting down -> pinnacle is the last man standing (see article by the man) -> pinnacle reduces limits -> smart bettors start manipulating the pinnacle price so that the books which stupidly copy it will give them better prices -> pinnacle is not so sharp anymore, but now it’s in the business of making money from sharp bettors who purposefully bet it the wrong way.
I have seen a lot of this manipulation in volleyball games where the limits on pinnacle are very very low
I remember this game, limits were as low as 20-30€ in pinnacle. Oddsportal didn't record well the odds movement thought, there was a lot of movement.
They dropped pinnacle's local line as low as they could and bet the other team in the softs before match started. A good example of how all the softs follow blindly pinnacle even with extremely low margins.
On this kind of events with very low liquidity in pinny I'd never valuebet since you don't know who is telling the truth. I arb (surebet) and move on.
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apoel81
- Pro
- Karma: 43
Post
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
There are people who drop pinnacle odds only to bet on the opposite with pinnacle from other agent that has higher pinnacle limits and odds are not moving that much etc.polema wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:18 amhttps://www.oddsportal.com/volleyball/a ... o-rPZGunKa
I remember this game, limits were as low as 20-30€ in pinnacle. Oddsportal didn't record well the odds movement thought, there was a lot of movement.
They dropped pinnacle's local line as low as they could and bet the other team in the softs before match started. A good example of how all the softs follow blindly pinnacle even with extremely low margins.
On this kind of events with very low liquidity in pinny I'd never valuebet since you don't know who is telling the truth. I arb (surebet) and move on.
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
It sounds interesting......
Which agents have more liquidity than the proper pinnacle?
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
apoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:45 amThere are people who drop pinnacle odds only to bet on the opposite with pinnacle from other agent that has higher pinnacle limits and odds are not moving that much etc.polema wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:18 amhttps://www.oddsportal.com/volleyball/a ... o-rPZGunKa
I remember this game, limits were as low as 20-30€ in pinnacle. Oddsportal didn't record well the odds movement thought, there was a lot of movement.
They dropped pinnacle's local line as low as they could and bet the other team in the softs before match started. A good example of how all the softs follow blindly pinnacle even with extremely low margins.
On this kind of events with very low liquidity in pinny I'd never valuebet since you don't know who is telling the truth. I arb (surebet) and move on.
It sounds interesting......
Which agents have more liquidity than the proper pinnacle?
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apoel81
- Pro
- Karma: 43
Post
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Bfb247, Psports from vodds. Would be very cautious with both. Bfb247 paid before limit tbf but that was about a year ago, no idea how is the situation now. Psports limited very fast and many nonsense voids.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:14 amapoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:45 amThere are people who drop pinnacle odds only to bet on the opposite with pinnacle from other agent that has higher pinnacle limits and odds are not moving that much etc.polema wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:18 am
https://www.oddsportal.com/volleyball/a ... o-rPZGunKa
I remember this game, limits were as low as 20-30€ in pinnacle. Oddsportal didn't record well the odds movement thought, there was a lot of movement.
They dropped pinnacle's local line as low as they could and bet the other team in the softs before match started. A good example of how all the softs follow blindly pinnacle even with extremely low margins.
On this kind of events with very low liquidity in pinny I'd never valuebet since you don't know who is telling the truth. I arb (surebet) and move on.
It sounds interesting......
Which agents have more liquidity than the proper pinnacle?
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Because you need very low liquidity in Pînnacle to have a big move. Maybe a 20 to 100€ liquidity.
How much liquidity have those agents in those concrete markets?
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
When you say more liquidity, in which terms are we talking about?apoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:06 pmBfb247, Psports from vodds. Would be very cautious with both. Bfb247 paid before limit tbf but that was about a year ago, no idea how is the situation now. Psports limited very fast and many nonsense voids.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:14 am
It sounds interesting......
Which agents have more liquidity than the proper pinnacle?
Because you need very low liquidity in Pînnacle to have a big move. Maybe a 20 to 100€ liquidity.
How much liquidity have those agents in those concrete markets?
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apoel81
- Pro
- Karma: 43
Post
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
double pin limits but odds move much less, lets say 0.02 instead of 0.20 . So obviously agent takes around 90% position on your bets. Sooner or later they will kick you and the ideal scenario is to pay you first.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:18 pmWhen you say more liquidity, in which terms are we talking about?apoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:06 pmBfb247, Psports from vodds. Would be very cautious with both. Bfb247 paid before limit tbf but that was about a year ago, no idea how is the situation now. Psports limited very fast and many nonsense voids.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:14 am
It sounds interesting......
Which agents have more liquidity than the proper pinnacle?
Because you need very low liquidity in Pînnacle to have a big move. Maybe a 20 to 100€ liquidity.
How much liquidity have those agents in those concrete markets?
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CharlieSheen99
- Pro
- Karma: 27
Post
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
If odds does not move accordingly it's impossible to take value with this strategy.apoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:29 pmdouble pin limits but odds move much less, lets say 0.02 instead of 0.20 . So obviously agent takes around 90% position on your bets. Sooner or later they will kick you and the ideal scenario is to pay you first.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:18 pmWhen you say more liquidity, in which terms are we talking about?
Because you need very low liquidity in Pînnacle to have a big move. Maybe a 20 to 100€ liquidity.
How much liquidity have those agents in those concrete markets?
- mrJustice
- Has experience
- Karma: 5
Post
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
In this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
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