There is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pmIn this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
Pinnacle lean gone?
- Littletroll1
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Could we know this two independents odds feeds?Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:28 pmThere is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pmIn this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Then I am not sure what is the issue with your bad performance. My average EV when using Pinnacle for reference is 5% and my yield is about 2-3%. My yield used to be around the same as EV but recently it has gone down. I don't know maybe it is just a variance but I also place a lot of bets regularly and so it shouldn't be a problem. So I have a feeling that Pinnacle is no longer very reliable source of true odds but there doesn't seem to be any better alternative.
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Average line, maybe?mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:42 pmThen I am not sure what is the issue with your bad performance. My average EV when using Pinnacle for reference is 5% and my yield is about 2-3%. My yield used to be around the same as EV but recently it has gone down. I don't know maybe it is just a variance but I also place a lot of bets regularly and so it shouldn't be a problem. So I have a feeling that Pinnacle is no longer very reliable source of true odds but there doesn't seem to be any better alternative.
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
I think all bookies more or less follow Pinnacle so average line will probably be similar. Personally I never tried doing value betting using average line and it would be interesting to learn more about it if any member of this forum would like to share their experience with it.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:50 pmAverage line, maybe?mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:42 pmThen I am not sure what is the issue with your bad performance. My average EV when using Pinnacle for reference is 5% and my yield is about 2-3%. My yield used to be around the same as EV but recently it has gone down. I don't know maybe it is just a variance but I also place a lot of bets regularly and so it shouldn't be a problem. So I have a feeling that Pinnacle is no longer very reliable source of true odds but there doesn't seem to be any better alternative.
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Can you help with the data scraping process? I want to build myself one too as the services are too expensive and their odds are already gone usually, however I do not have much information about that. Would be so happy if you could help a brother out.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:28 pmThere is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pmIn this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:48 pm
Interesting enough there is also no proof in the results that it's better to take a 10% valuebet than a 4% valuebet. They also perform about the same.
- balls of steele
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Plus our so-called "enemies" are getting stronger everyday with their AIs, computers, analysts and collaborations, while you're wasting time telling me we're not bros. Good work man, keep it up.
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
I am not asking anyone to just hand me all their work they've accumulated over months, even years. I would appreciate just a bit of a help in terms of guiding me through the path. I have lots of question marks in my mind that I am trying to resolve and some I have already done. My point of being in this forum is to ask for help for things I haven't been able to resolve and help people with the ones I have. This is what the forum is for.balls of steele wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:19 am
Some of you guys are really funny. Helping a brother means the destruction of your own business. And what makes you think that a forum post makes you a brother? Or should I say Bro?
Plus our so-called "enemies" are getting stronger everyday with their AIs, computers, analysts and collaborations, while you're wasting time telling me we're not bros. Good work man, keep it up.
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
Sorry, I can't say that. But there's definitely no issue with the feeds.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:37 pmCould we know this two independents odds feeds?Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:28 pmThere is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pm
In this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.
- ex-hft
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
The typical user of this strategy would move pinnacle price to where it's way off - and then bet the fixtures on as many soft books as possible: not necessarily copying pinnacle 100%, just enough that you made them all move 5-10%CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:00 pmIf odds does not move accordingly it's impossible to take value with this strategy.apoel81 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:29 pmdouble pin limits but odds move much less, lets say 0.02 instead of 0.20 . So obviously agent takes around 90% position on your bets. Sooner or later they will kick you and the ideal scenario is to pay you first.CharlieSheen99 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 12:18 pm
When you say more liquidity, in which terms are we talking about?
Because you need very low liquidity in Pînnacle to have a big move. Maybe a 20 to 100€ liquidity.
How much liquidity have those agents in those concrete markets?
- Littletroll1
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
If you think the alert services are too expensive, then you won't be able to afford building scrapers. If you don't have the knowledge yourself, you'll have to hire someone and if it has to work properly you can expect to spend at least 10-20k euro for the setup and then another 1-2k per extra bookmaker you want to add to it. Then on top of that comes costs for odds feeds, servers, proxy IPs etc.Mete wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 12:16 amCan you help with the data scraping process? I want to build myself one too as the services are too expensive and their odds are already gone usually, however I do not have much information about that. Would be so happy if you could help a brother out.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:28 pmThere is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pm
In this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.
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arb12
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But the crucial difference is the increased margin policy on the published odds when the hidden real owners of the Pinnacle syndicate have dictated the operative policy of the "property" of the so-called "owner" Magnus Hedman. Compare some leading Pinnacle margins before 2015 and now.
A similar case was under so-called "owner" Paul Phua when SBO & IBC were instructed from behind the scenes to raise the margins (in addition, they voided large bets from leading market positions many years ago).
But if you somehow remove the margin, some pre-selected US and European markets are very well predicted by Pinnacle's implied odds, while some Asian markets are not at all (like pre-selected Cricket markets and others requiring in-depth understanding). Take a close look at which agencies are active in Pinny's unpredictable markets and when they are active.
I have to stress that here I turn off all so-called alert services. First of all, I compare the own modeled odds with those of Pinnacle and Asian Minotaurs. Otherwise, the above is not guaranteed to be a valid case.
According to many Enlightened Minds (ancient Philosophers, etc.), mutual aid and cooperation ensure the progress of the World (through Knowledge) and sustain Humanity as a whole.
Remember Prometheus who helped people instead of keeping Knowledge to himself.
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
If you mean Pinnacle's implied probabilities through their published odds for an event, the case is the same as years before.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:18 pmHas any other valuebettors noticed that the Pinnacle lean is almost gone? They are not as sharp as they used to be and for the past 5-6 months I have maybe made 0.05% profit on turnover. This is over more than 50.000 livebets, so there is no variance in it. Before that I used to make 1-2% on turnover.
But the crucial difference is the increased margin policy on the published odds when the hidden real owners of the Pinnacle syndicate have dictated the operative policy of the "property" of the so-called "owner" Magnus Hedman. Compare some leading Pinnacle margins before 2015 and now.
A similar case was under so-called "owner" Paul Phua when SBO & IBC were instructed from behind the scenes to raise the margins (in addition, they voided large bets from leading market positions many years ago).
But if you somehow remove the margin, some pre-selected US and European markets are very well predicted by Pinnacle's implied odds, while some Asian markets are not at all (like pre-selected Cricket markets and others requiring in-depth understanding). Take a close look at which agencies are active in Pinny's unpredictable markets and when they are active.
I have to stress that here I turn off all so-called alert services. First of all, I compare the own modeled odds with those of Pinnacle and Asian Minotaurs. Otherwise, the above is not guaranteed to be a valid case.
Agreed.Mete wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:20 am...
I am not asking anyone to just hand me all their work they've accumulated over months, even years. I would appreciate just a bit of a help in terms of guiding me through the path. I have lots of question marks in my mind that I am trying to resolve and some I have already done. My point of being in this forum is to ask for help for things I haven't been able to resolve and help people with the ones I have. This is what the forum is for.
...
According to many Enlightened Minds (ancient Philosophers, etc.), mutual aid and cooperation ensure the progress of the World (through Knowledge) and sustain Humanity as a whole.
Remember Prometheus who helped people instead of keeping Knowledge to himself.
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Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
I also "compare the own modeled odds with those of Pinnacle and Asian Minotaurs.". I would recommend anyone who is into soccer betting to do that as well. At least use the bookie odds data as somekind of indicator. However they can't be trusted as a true odds provider.arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 12:30 pmIf you mean Pinnacle's implied probabilities through their published odds for an event, the case is the same as years before.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:18 pmHas any other valuebettors noticed that the Pinnacle lean is almost gone? They are not as sharp as they used to be and for the past 5-6 months I have maybe made 0.05% profit on turnover. This is over more than 50.000 livebets, so there is no variance in it. Before that I used to make 1-2% on turnover.
But the crucial difference is the increased margin policy on the published odds when the hidden real owners of the Pinnacle syndicate have dictated the operative policy of the "property" of the so-called "owner" Magnus Hedman. Compare some leading Pinnacle margins before 2015 and now.
A similar case was under so-called "owner" Paul Phua when SBO & IBC were instructed from behind the scenes to raise the margins (in addition, they voided large bets from leading market positions many years ago).
But if you somehow remove the margin, some pre-selected US and European markets are very well predicted by Pinnacle's implied odds, while some Asian markets are not at all (like pre-selected Cricket markets and others requiring in-depth understanding). Take a close look at which agencies are active in Pinny's unpredictable markets and when they are active.
I have to stress that here I turn off all so-called alert services. First of all, I compare the own modeled odds with those of Pinnacle and Asian Minotaurs. Otherwise, the above is not guaranteed to be a valid case.
Agreed.Mete wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:20 am...
I am not asking anyone to just hand me all their work they've accumulated over months, even years. I would appreciate just a bit of a help in terms of guiding me through the path. I have lots of question marks in my mind that I am trying to resolve and some I have already done. My point of being in this forum is to ask for help for things I haven't been able to resolve and help people with the ones I have. This is what the forum is for.
...
According to many Enlightened Minds (ancient Philosophers, etc.), mutual aid and cooperation ensure the progress of the World (through Knowledge) and sustain Humanity as a whole.
Remember Prometheus who helped people instead of keeping Knowledge to himself.
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Lets say you want odds and live event data from soccer. Then I would
1. Browse to bet365.com
2. Open up the "web developer tools" windows in firefox, similar developer tool exist in chromium forks, alternatively use Fiddler to sniff packets.
3. Filter XHR and Websocket connections and review them to find out if the response contains JSON, if so prettify it and review the data else continue looking up the request/response data sent between the bookmaker and your machine (browser), with the objective to decipher odds and event data.
4. When you've a clear picture of how and what data is being provided and can partially simulate whatever the browser does then you can 'scrape it'
Step 3 requires some understanding of protocols, data structures, web-based authentication, client/server paradigm, and preferably some basic knowledge of javascript (not necessary though). Either way you need to know some programming language to execute step 4.
I dont know of any point and click web-scraping tools, which accepts a configuration as input and outputs desired scrapped data (maybe I should create one and SaaS, such a solution!
)
Re: Pinnacle lean gone?
I can give an example:Mete wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 12:16 amCan you help with the data scraping process? I want to build myself one too as the services are too expensive and their odds are already gone usually, however I do not have much information about that. Would be so happy if you could help a brother out.Littletroll1 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:28 pmThere is no issues with it, as I built it myself and do supervision on it every day. I even use 2 independent odds feeds to eliminate delays/errors. I don't bet on any low liquidity markets, only soccer and tennis.mrJustice wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:15 pm
In this case there is probably something wrong with your value bets feed, it is probably delayed. 10% value bet is a lot and you should have decent results unless the markets you bet on have super low liquidity or odds are very high. If you bet a lot on fast paced sports like tennis then most likely it is your odds feed problem. You probably take value using BB alert service, right? Their feed is too unreliable for fast paced sports in my opinion.
Lets say you want odds and live event data from soccer. Then I would
1. Browse to bet365.com
2. Open up the "web developer tools" windows in firefox, similar developer tool exist in chromium forks, alternatively use Fiddler to sniff packets.
3. Filter XHR and Websocket connections and review them to find out if the response contains JSON, if so prettify it and review the data else continue looking up the request/response data sent between the bookmaker and your machine (browser), with the objective to decipher odds and event data.
4. When you've a clear picture of how and what data is being provided and can partially simulate whatever the browser does then you can 'scrape it'
Step 3 requires some understanding of protocols, data structures, web-based authentication, client/server paradigm, and preferably some basic knowledge of javascript (not necessary though). Either way you need to know some programming language to execute step 4.
I dont know of any point and click web-scraping tools, which accepts a configuration as input and outputs desired scrapped data (maybe I should create one and SaaS, such a solution!
)
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