Arbusers

I use Surebet dot com to get value EV bets.

They list several value bets at Pinny. However, I tought that Pinnacle was a sharp bookies so it couldnt be beat..

I'm confused.

Are Surebet dot com value bet legits?

Fred b wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 9:45 pm

I use Surebet dot com to get value EV bets.

They list several value bets at Pinny. However, I tought that Pinnacle was a sharp bookies so it couldnt be beat..

I'm confused.

Are Surebet dot com value bet legits?

I thought most similar services use Pinnacle to compare odds.... what are Surebet using ?

They dont say. Only they mention that they are using a statistical method to source their valuebets.

Fred b wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:12 pm

They dont say. Only they mention that they are using a statistical method to source their valuebets.

you can tell how confident Pinnacle are in their odds judging by the Max bet limit on the game you are interested in and the margin on their odds

Fred b wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 9:45 pm

They list several value bets at Pinny. However, I tought that Pinnacle was a sharp bookies so it couldnt be beat..

They are in high-liquidity markets. In minor pre-ko games, when odds can be smashed by 0.5 by someone betting 500 or even 200 euro, they can be easily beaten.

So this website shows values in Pinnacle correctly? Is it better to play the opposite of these values at soft bookmakers?

This is simple example of what I just said. You presented low liquidity markets, do you know what are limits there? 50 euro? One person lumping 200 euro there will cause fake value bet which happens a lot last years since Pinnacle slashed pre-ko limits in loads of minor games to just 22 euro. I dont know what to answer if you ask if you should take other side or not, it depends, there isnt one rule so you can blindly follow it. Pre-ko games in Pinny (low liquidity markets) may be bet for various reasons so I wouldnt bet other side blindly for sure. The point is you cant just rely on valuebet services if you want to take value bets in low liquidity markets and you want to bet blindly pre-ko. It may cause you even losing money long run if you hit many "fake-ones". Saying again - when Pinnacle opening odds for such markets were 200-300 euro it was much more reliable comparing to these days when you are extreme lucky seeeing even 90 euro there.

So this website shows values in Pinnacle correctly?

It shows difference in odds. You cant say for sure these days for such games if it is value or not or what side of bookie holds the value.

AlexNotman1 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 13, 2023 6:45 pm

This is simple example of what I just said. You presented low liquidity markets, do you know what are limits there? 50 euro? One person lumping 200 euro there will cause fake value bet which happens a lot last years since Pinnacle slashed pre-ko limits in loads of minor games to just 22 euro. I dont know what to answer if you ask if you should take other side or not, it depends, there isnt one rule so you can blindly follow it. Pre-ko games in Pinny (low liquidity markets) may be bet for various reasons so I wouldnt bet other side blindly for sure. The point is you cant just rely on valuebet services if you want to take value bets in low liquidity markets and you want to bet blindly pre-ko. It may cause you even losing money long run if you hit many "fake-ones". Saying again - when Pinnacle opening odds for such markets were 200-300 euro it was much more reliable comparing to these days when you are extreme lucky seeeing even 90 euro there.

So this website shows values in Pinnacle correctly?

It shows difference in odds. You cant say for sure these days for such games if it is value or not or what side of bookie holds the value.

wise words for any beginner to understand..........also worth thinking about if you are going to use these alert services for pinnacle dropping odds etc you are basically telling the soft book 'please limit me' as you will be betting same line and time as all the same service subscribers...............only small hope to make soft accounts not limit fast these days is unique betting models and method you develop or find so soft book does not understand your modus operandi

In relation to this topic...

My maximum stakes on Pinnacle are 20€ for all minor league games
And for all markets with low liquidity....

I honestly don't know where this is going to take us

TjTaker wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 14, 2023 7:59 pm

In relation to this topic...

My maximum stakes on Pinnacle are 20€ for all minor league games
And for all markets with low liquidity....

I honestly don't know where this is going to take us

Probably take us to a world where Pinnacle gets new competitors

It's what the industry need.
Although I don't believe it...

AlexNotman1 wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 13, 2023 6:45 pm

This is simple example of what I just said. You presented low liquidity markets, do you know what are limits there? 50 euro? One person lumping 200 euro there will cause fake value bet which happens a lot last years since Pinnacle slashed pre-ko limits in loads of minor games to just 22 euro. I dont know what to answer if you ask if you should take other side or not, it depends, there isnt one rule so you can blindly follow it. Pre-ko games in Pinny (low liquidity markets) may be bet for various reasons so I wouldnt bet other side blindly for sure. The point is you cant just rely on valuebet services if you want to take value bets in low liquidity markets and you want to bet blindly pre-ko. It may cause you even losing money long run if you hit many "fake-ones". Saying again - when Pinnacle opening odds for such markets were 200-300 euro it was much more reliable comparing to these days when you are extreme lucky seeeing even 90 euro there.

So this website shows values in Pinnacle correctly?

It shows difference in odds. You cant say for sure these days for such games if it is value or not or what side of bookie holds the value.

If Pinnacle is not as correct anymore like it used to be. Then it's also not that Pinnacle should have much better odds then the average of all the liquidity in the market over many games. I would actually argue value betting tools should work even better now. But i do agree with what you said, with a tool you don't know which side has the value. So you can't bet big just because the tool shows it as a value bet.

The guys from rebelbetting have been doing value bets on sharps. But the results seem mixed.
community.rebelbetting.com/t/update-value-betting-on-sharp-bookmakers/4918/55

Pinnacle is not what it used to be 5-10 years ago. There are cracks to its authority. This doesn't mean that it gets worse in terms of performance. It means that some players are getting smarter than Pinnacle traders. The typical alert service trying to exploit these cracks will not perform equally to these smart players. There is a decision, and an observation elements here that alert service can't offer.
Pinnacle has many lines of defence to reduce risks. Pulling out of markets and lowering limits would be the obvious ones. Both of these are already happening. Another one is profiling and discouraging wise players.
Some more light here: portal/last-man-standing-pinnacle/

Completely agree. I haven't paid much attention previously, but last 2 months I have been managing successfully arbing directly between the Betfair and Pinnacle manually. Especially on basketball games IN-PLAY ,like Euroleague where 5+ point runs are the norm. Some games are just awful - nobody knows what to do: Real - Madrid - Barcelona during the weekend where the result was some 43:17 as I recall.
Yesterdays' Crvena Zvezda - Zadar was another great example. I don't know where the values is, I don't care which side is wrong but the discrepancies in the odds are huge sometimes.

Ofcourse you have to watch the game itself LIVE (fastest picture possible), and have to be arbing one game at the time to keep focus and placing/canceling bets. No services are possible because arbs last 5-10 seconds at most, and you have to know (or at least guess/suspect why) it appears. That is our main advantage - Bookies traders rely on data feeds (numbers, odds), I do read the game - when there is foul, a technical, video review, etc. and adjust accordingly.

All you need is volatility in the game, no actively managed game (Tennis, cricket, basketball, rugby, all except soccer) and to know your games rules.