Arbusers

Lancashire vs Durham has just ended,
The batting approach of Jack Blatherwick is awesome!
After 1W and 5W within the 19th Ov. the ML market resurrected to some extent, the minimum offered amounts at some prices were pretty OK for some value positions.
What a Vitality Blast game was that one today, 218 for 3 vs 216 for 8!
The thin difference was 10.80 vs 10.90 RR after the last Over...

Let's mark the near the "Pakistani batting collapse" state with Alpha.
What about the quality re-assessment of that stage again and again in the last 20 years?
Today, Rizwan, Ayub, Zaman, U. Khan, S.Khan, Wasim vs an opponent like Ireland???
What about a slightly different "classy" Alpha in 2023/24 matches?
Why does that happen again and again?
PCB?

Naturally, Abbas Afridi was dropped in "Alpha 2".
I just don't quite understand why this expenditure of energy is necessary for Pakistan against easy opponents, let alone against proven class ones.
If India's approach on the pitch is like a Lotus Elise on the road, Pakistan's approach is akin to a 1970s Maserati Ghibli…
PCB, why?

World Cup T20, Super Eights, the USA vs the Proteas at the moment,

The odds compilers killed the value in the ML market but the Runs markets, the Dismissal and some other markets are vivid, for example:
- Saurabh Netravalkar 5.25 E/R and Wckts vs Reeza Hendricks (Multan Sultans, PSL) (2.4 Ov) and vs Aiden Markram ( 2023 SunRisers Hyderabad) (14.6 Ov);
- Harmeet Singh 6.00 E/R and two fast consecutive Wckts in 12.2 & 12.3 Ov. vs Quinton de Kock (former Mumbai Indians member and other IPL teams) and vs David Miller (Gujarat Titans);

The Model tune-ups generated additional triggers today for some other markets where the calculated probability versus the implied probability of the proposed odds is very good.

Similar specifical expectations for the second part of the game after the break.

By the way, will we see the Indian-American Bowling Powerhouses Netravalkar and Singh in the IPL 2025?
Singh was with Rajasthan Royals at the same time Pravin Tambe was competing there.

T20 Cricket World Cup, India vs the Aussies right now,

The first Death Overs stage is coming now. A very quick re-assessment was introduced into the Model due to plenty of discrepancies in Gros Islet today. One minority example is the Aussie Bowling Dept today in Powerplay & Middle Overs - Mitchell Starc (Kolkata Knight Riders) - circa 11 E/R and removing of Rohit Sharma & Suryakumar Yadav, compared to former Royal Challengers Bangalore's Josh Hazlewood - circa 3 E/R and removing of Virat Kohli.

And plenty of other major discrepancies on the pitch so far.

Hardik Pandya's performance on the pitch is an enigma for me today...

Shivam Dube's overall performance under Stephen Fleming in Chennai Super Kings vs that under Rahul Dravid in India are described with various arrays and graphics that help to guess different probabilities when Dube is on the pitch under respective tactics.

A very interesting thing spotted by me today was the change in some "forecast on the fly" triggers in the batting partnership of the Pandya-Dube duo, attacked by the bowling effort of Marcus Stoinis (LuckNow SG) in a close time interval.

Let's enjoy the second part after the break time.

The killing Batsman Travis Head (SunRisers Hyderabad) is on the pitch right now vs the killing Bowler Jasprit Bumrah - one of the most profitable moments in terms of the triggered probability interval that helps in the right intervention on the markets.

What a moment we are witnessing now!

By the way, while watching the Head vs Bumrah competition, I remembered Mr. Boom-Boom: Shahid Afridi in both his perfect performances as a killing Batsman and a killing Bowler.
Do you remember Shahid Afridi's appearance in the very first IPL?

ICC T20 World Cup Semi-Final #1 will start very soon, the Proteas vs Afghanistan in Tarouba;

Are there factors that would prevent the favorite South Africa from reaching the World Cup Final?
Yes, there are a few, provided that the Proteas lose their tactical self-control and/or the South African team starts making inexplicable errors and somehow surprises itself. South Africa as a very good team has historically performed "well" in this regard.
For example, if you have watched several hundred T20 International top-notch Cricket matches, you probably spotted the "surprising" losses of Pakistan, South Africa and New Zealand from favorable positions. However, there are significant differences in when and why those teams sometimes fail:
- In my view, the Shaheens under some captains have less adaptive tactical approaches when opponents put some pre-determined things in motion, and the famous Pakistani batting collapses are highly likely by BATc>>YY% when those pre-determined things in the array {Zn} are in effect. My observations have shown me that the Shaheens' bowling failures are triggered by quite different tactical circumstances on the pitch when they occur, but let's say the probability interval here is BOWLc∈{Y, ..., YY}% in most cases.
- The Kiwis' recent lack of success has been caused by dozens and dozens of things spotted by me in the last months, but let's mention New Zealand's conservative and predictable coaching approach plus the very unusual decision of the Kiwis not to play warm-up games before the World Cup.
- The quality leakage of the Proteas team from a favorable position is quite different from the aforementioned two teams when this happens.
While the failures of Pakistan and New Zealand follow some systemic Logic and are therefore predictable to some extent under the classical probabilistic methods, the Proteas can fail much more often when no one expects (the reverse is also true - to profit from a hopeless situation) and these failures are asymmetrically distributed in the timeline compared to Pakistan and NZ. Therefore, your construction of specific well-chosen matrices covering much more well-chosen specific variables and elimination of other elements that in the classical approach are not eliminated, helped by some non-classical probabilistic approaches very well describes the performance of the South African Cricket team on the pitch provided that you really can choose very well the initial variables for that game specifically. That's hard, errors are inevitable, but when South African Cricket is full of talents similar to the Indian one, but under a different management system, these non-standard ideas for calculating probabilities are much more acceptable despite the much greater time required.

It can be seen from space that South Africa has a plethora of hyper-talented players from different generations playing together in various starting combinations and while the SA selectors have drawn different starting line-ups in recent years in different types of tournaments and tours, I don't think the conditional stability in the time has been achieved at all, despite the hidden talented Cricketing gems in every generation that the Proteas' coaches have at their disposal last decades. Here I mean not only the most famous South Africans, playing in the IPL, but also those hidden bijous, competing in the domestic tournaments.

It's neither possible nor am I willing to disclose publicly the approaches to building the Model's tune-ups for today's match drawn from thousands of sheets of my analyses and observations, so let me stress a few minority components only:
- The pre-estimations and probabilities for Rahmanullah Gurbaz (the Kolkata Knight Riders Owners know why rely on him) vs the South African Bowling Dept as a whole, and additionally as a crucial subtask here was my triggered "predictions" of exactly who will deliver the toughest SA Bowling attack against Gurbaz and what are the corresponding outcome probabilities;
- There were triggered two or a maximum of three most probable tactical approaches to mitigate Rashid Khan's Bowling and the corresponding forecast for the outcomes Khan-vs-X, vs Y and so on;
- I expect to see an unexpected role in the performance of a South African non-leading player if Afghanistan starts well;
- It's extremely important who exactly will be as close as possible to Kagiso Rabada's top-notch play today at every stage the respective South African bowler performs.
- The unusual moments of usual South African nervousness in the game accuracy will probably be in the... XX and YY overs?

In brief: I'm pretty sure all the activities on the pitch today depend mostly on the South African team. The SA team members will shape their own destinies in the Semi-Final.
The Afghanistan Cricket team is predictable in their usual high-efficiency one-style game, but the Proteas...

Less than an hour and a half until the start of the match.

Let's enjoy the game.

South Africa's golden team awaits their opponent in the World Cup Final.

ICC T20 World Cup Semi-Final #2 is goin' to start within a few minutes, the blue team of Bharat vs the three Lions in Providence.

The "inventors" of the Great game of Cricket vs India.
On the one hand, the "inventors" of Cricket were recently revived by Aussie Coach Matthew Mott (also by Kiwi Coach McCullum in Tests) and that help from other countries stopped the ECB lethargy and put the Englishmen back among the best Cricket nations. On the other hand, India surpassed their Cricket teacher England a long time ago. Naturally, short-term Indian errors are quite possible, but long-term lethargy is impossible - in contemporary India, everyone's Heart pumps great passion for Cricket in their veins, and everyone's Mind is Cricket 24/7/365 - what a beautiful sporting Country!

IPL, lovely IPL!!!
See the English squad playing in India: Jos Buttler (Rajasthan Royals), Jonny Bairstow (PBKS/KXIP), Harry Brook (SunRisers Hyderabad in the past), Phil Salt (Kolkata Knight Riders), Sam Curran (PBKS/KXIP), Moeen Ali (Chennai Super Kings), Will Jacks (Royal Challengers Bengaluru), Liam Livingstone (PBKS/KXIP), Jofra Archer (Mumbai Indians in the past), Chris Jordan (Mumbai Indians in the past), Adil Rashid (SunRisers Hyderabad in the past), Mark Wood (LuckNow SG in the past), Reece Topley (Royal Challengers Bengaluru).
Ben Duckett - No IPL so far, Tom Hartley - No IPL so far, but remember how many Wckts he took vs India in Hyderabad (Test, 2024).

In other words, the abundance of IPL matches and the endless instances where almost all modern-day Indian and English players have played against each other in various combinations/teams not only in recent IPL tournaments but also in T20 Internationals have been well observed and analyzed, so my Model tune-ups today triggered the respective probability intervals in the respective markets with ease.

Let's enjoy the sheer Cricket now, courtesy of Sky Sports Cricket!

By the way, a very quick re-evaluation on the fly may be required at some stage due to the hypothetical application of the DLS method due to the wet terrain...

Your opinions?

Apparently, the cricket field between the wickets, and also the cricket oval's conditions in Providence have deteriorated since the first Powerplay. I guess the Super Sopper didn't dry the outfield very well before the toss. A rapid reassessment of field conditions is now required. The slight change in India's batting approach after the second Wckt taken by Curran tells us something important about updating the trading plan.

That 84-metre boundary from Axar Patel at the end of the first part will add further psychological burden to England, whose bowlers were gunning to restrict India to under 160 runs before the break at all costs.
I'm trying to forecast exactly when the Indian Bowling Dept (and Bumrah of course) will force England Batting Dept to leave their comfort zone and take much bigger risks.

The T20 World Cup, La Grande Finale India vs South Africa has just started, OMG what a Final today will be!!!

No matter that all the long-time Cricket observers know almost all the particulars about the Indian and South African players in the T20 tournaments, there are many critical details regarding today's clash.
Based on my observations from watching dozens and dozens of T20 matches of India and South Africa National teams in various tournaments and also observations of the real abilities of their players, I personally decided to build my pre-match positions and the in-running trading plan on a mix of conservative approaches and well-selected newly generated ideas based on my recent impressions of what I have seen from the ongoing T20 World Cup 2024.

Among some of the main milestones in generating useful market ideas for today are:
- The hugely increased weightage in the preliminary analyses of both the Indian and South African bowling departments for a couple of reasons;
- According to me, the South African coaching staff will prepare a special emergency plan to try to dismiss primarily Rohit Sharma as soon as possible. The other batsmen can wait.
On the one hand, I see great opportunities in the MoneyLine market as well as some non-core markets. On the other hand, additional long stop-loss points must be placed, but the exact positions must be triggered after an additional matrix solution;
- Various data analyses and oscillating graphics pointed us that Marco Jansen's floating bowling performance will be much more productive vs a pre-selected list of Indian batsmen and his Economy Rate Leakage is quite possible vs other pre-selected Indian batsmen.
To my surprise, after re-doing the in-depth most recent bowling analysis of Marco Jansen for SunRisers Hyderabad in the IPL, additional secondary conditions appeared to calculate the exact probabilities of Marco Jansen's future performances;
- Unlike the aforementioned, the in-depth IPL re-analyses of Tristan Stubbs (Delhi Capitals), David Miller (Gujarat Titans), Aiden Markram and also Heinrich Klaasen (both in SunRisers Hyderabad) are one-way and categorical in terms of triggered probabilities for today;
- From what I have watched from Coach Rahul Dravid so far, I have an idea of ​​exactly which bowlers and exactly how they will attack Quinton de Kock;
- Again, Coach Rob Walter is heavily dependent on the South African power bowlers and their current form. The crucial basis here is the current performance of Kagiso Rabada on the pitch. If he fails, the overall probability for South Africa will be changed in terms of current odds;
- Unlike Rob Walter, India has the luxury of extremely strong Batting & Bowling Depts. All of you know the personal characteristics of their members very well;
- Both teams today are unbeaten so far in the current World Cup tournament, but the Proteas will be relatively relaxed as very few "predictions" put them in the final before the start of the World Cup and the main psychological burden will be on India. That gives us market participants hidden advantages in the markets;
- There is a one-digit chance of this match turning into a heavy-scoring one, but I have personally prepared a contingency plan should that become a reality. Rob Walters' coaching ideas are quite different from Daniel Vettori's ones despite the almost same players in SA and SRH, but who knows...
To prepare my market plan if this case holds, I did some re-analysis of South Africa vs West Indies 259/4 : 258/5 in Centurion(2023) and also West Indies vs India 245/6 : 244/4 in Lauderhill a few years ago;
- And so on, and so forth...


Let's enjoy the art on the pitch in Barbados now.


Okay, come on. Let's share long-term observations, impressions, and current opinions about this wonderful game.
I would like to read your opinions about India and South Africa in the big World Cup Final.