Arbusers

Hi!
I'm about 3 months into valuebetting, and in the last 8 days I have experienced the single worst series of losses in that time. I get that these things will happen, but I'm obiously concerned about my methods, and if they actually are good. I'm chasing pinnacle lines on soft bookies, you already know the drill, and these are the results from the last 8 days with about 400 bets placed: That is a chart with each and every of my placed bet and it's outcome. So I'm currently at 20 single bets loss. My yield is -4.3%, which is far away from my EV of 8.6%. I'm concerned because I ran tests for about a month and I got some fairly nice results (but not unexpected in terms of EV) which gave me confidence, but the last 8 days are actually starting to bug me. I know that 500 games isn't a lot, and 8 bad days can and will happen, and with my strategy where my average odd is high compared to most valuebettors, this could be just a case of bad luck. There are a lot of high odds (high for traditional valuebetting from my knowledge) which the soft bookies just don't mind letting past, and thus my EV is so high if you were wondering, actually the average probability of my placed bet is only 21%. I ran a monte carlo simulation, and got some, lets say, believable results: Am I in the wrong, or is this actually probable? What are your biggest series of losses? I'm really new into all of this and do not have a reference point regarding streaks, and I'm a bit confused. Is the answer as easy as variance? Do other people place low probabilty valuebets?

I'm aware that my yield and EV won't be a 1:1 match, and I'm not trying to do that (for now), but anyways -4.3% is kinda bad. I'm also aware that valuebetting is a long game, and I have been since the start, and I do think that this strategy is the right thing for me. If I were 99% sure after 2 months of testing, I'm now about 95% sure about my ways. For now it's just placing more bets, and hopefully getting my yield up. I will for sure post results in about a week time, after another 500 bets I hope. Thanks in advance for sharing your experiences and thoughts. Cheers!

Sorry for my writing, got to say it's horrible in the post above, I just rushed to write when I got the time to do it. Don't grade it

@ Marko Kostic,
I have some hypothetical assumptions regardin' the graphic, drawn by you about the Monte Carlo results, but if possible, show and name the axis X, axis Y, the red line (or zone), and the pinnacle of the curve, the dimension, and the values of them.
Accordin' to your info, the median decimal value of the odds, you've participated in, is circa 5.
Regarding the first graphic, I suppose that you have various odds on the events you've participated in, and/or the money management (staking method) is not the same in all the bets. And what's happened after let's say the 210th bet till the 430th or 460th bet? Change of the approach by you, or worsened conditions? The optimistic assumption is, that is only variance and that the negative result will be overcome by time if you achieve a real and sustainable positive EV. Events with about 20 percent probability (odds circa 5), are very hard to be "caught" as many times as you want. If the achieved and mentioned by you positive EV is computed correctly, and that one is proven sustainable in the time, then at first sight the result between 210th till 460th event probably is a variance for unacceptable long time? And most of the time you're below zero, is the EV real? The number of events so far is insufficient to make general conclusions, not to mention the high odds in your model.
Are you mastering the evaluation of the sports you've participated in? Or do you simply accept the odds, offered to you by the bookmakers? I mean are the offered odds real in every situation or have you accepted them without fundamental and technical reasons?
A possible trap for you is to be limited by the soft bookies at that odds when achieving a positive strike, and if you accept bonuses at that odds your accounts will be limited at the soft bookmakers.
If that negative percent of the yield continues further, that may indicate some problems with the real assessment of the EV.
Is it possible for you to make parallel betting at several lower odds and to compare their results? If you have not mastered the circumstances at the pitch, linked to odds of 5, and the EV is not computed correctly, then the leaking of capital is possible.
See on the net how the horse racing bettors manage their bets, in that sport such a range of high odds is usual.
Advice you to master the usual low odds, provided that you have +EV and later return here.

Of course it could be variance nut I m wondering if you could break down your bets into smaller pieces and then see if there are specific markets/sports that drag you down. Maybe your filtering is not that good, to maybe something changed from Pinnacle's side?

If - as you say - there is a lot of high odds, you shouldnt be surprised about variance. Do you realize how bad variance can be considering betting high odds? You mentioned about "8 days", days doesnt matter at all, its all about number of bets placed that time. I used to do valuebetting a while before, taking average odds of 1.3 (which means possibility of bad run reduced a lot) and still was down around 20 units after 2000 bets in one bookie. So even considering your decent +EV I guess few good thousands bets being down isnt sth weird. If you are sure about calculating your +EV of course.

Hi again,

I have followed your simple advice of filtering the odds by smaller intervals, and I got to say, I'm more confident now. The average values really don't show the big picture here, for now at least, and I have been fooled by a losing streak, and small number of bets placed combined. When you take into consideration my odds range, the numbers are actually really small, smaller than they seem at first. As much as I would like to post more results and raw data, I sadly must not. I will for sure tho post my average results when my number of bets ramps up, so others can learn from my mistakes. I am confident that my evaluation is decent (not negative at least), but anyways in the meantime I will learn new and more sophisticated ways of doing so. Anyways thanks for the replies. Sometimes you need a reality check, and that was what I was hoping for with the posting above. I am now more confident about my play, and it's kinda funny that the most simple solutions often get overlooked. Thanks again, cheers!

@ Marko Kostic,

Thank you for sharing your experiences. You might want to have a look at our experiences too. A little bit old, but all factors are still the same. the-arbusers-value-betting-index-t5599/