Arbusers

South American Soccer Leagues have their own characteristics, including unusual odds compiling in some occasions. From time to time some Brazilian and Argentinian matches producing value in similar moments, provided that we recognize and avoid doubtful markets.
Sometimes there are obective sport reasons for these odds. Sometimes hardly discover the reasons, but the market is not shady. Post factum analysis reveals that.
Other occasions indicated shady events through moving odds maybe based on cash flow by insider info. Post factum analysis may reveals if game ok.

My question is about two events. I am curious of your opinion about these initial odds: Gremio vs Bragantino - held several days ago,
Cuiaba vs Palmeiras - finished minutes ago.

My simulation triggered Palmeiras value, but not good signals for Bragantino. I have to readjust some things.
Thanks.

On which platform did you find these odds?

@ Ex-hft,
In general, used odds from most well known bookies' platforms, exchanges and odds aggregators. I needed their range of the odds and the movement in time as well.
In those two Brazilian events I've tested some ideas, no real wagers, no taking positions, no trading. In Argentinian leagues some good signals, but in Brazil competitions sometimes I had mixed results. That's why I've selected these two events for test (those ones fullfill predefined criteria by me) and in first one triggers weren't good, unlike second one. I won't participate in similar selected events there for some time. Readjustment and more testing needed.

That's fascinating. I treat all leagues exactly the same, they're just numbers to me...
One day I might learn to do more of what you're doing - I'm sure that there's much to learn there.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:26 am

Cuiaba vs Palmeiras

I took the bet at Palmeiras 4.61 when there was a sudden drop in the market in the afternoon before the match. Pinn went momentarily down as low as 3.6 as far as I recall. Generally, the Brazilian serie A is among a handfull of leagues where I don't suspect shady play - so I have no concerns taking the value bets here.

As a side note, I remember being a bit puzzled about Palmeiras high pricing against Cuiabá and I had just watched them beating my favorite team in the copa libertadores finals last Saturday, the latin champions league. I never search for news explaining the movements, but now I am wondering: why did the odds on Palmeiras move steadily from 2 to 5 (closing odds) during the three days up to the match? Anyone with a fundamental analysis explaining this? - if there are no missing players on either team or other major events, Palmeiras is a favourite against Cuiabá and their win should have a value close to 2, not 5.

Palmeiras played with U20 team, they won anyway and I lost my bet

S3kt0r wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:47 am

Palmeiras played with U20 team, they won anyway and I lost my bet

Oh dear, I should have seen that. Thanks.

VidaBlue wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:35 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:26 am

Cuiaba vs Palmeiras

I took the bet at Palmeiras 4.61 when there was a sudden drop in the market in the afternoon before the match. Pinn went momentarily down as low as 3.6 as far as I recall. Generally, the Brazilian serie A is among a handfull of leagues where I don't suspect shady play - so I have no concerns taking the value bets here.

As a side note, I remember being a bit puzzled about Palmeiras high pricing against Cuiabá and I had just watched them beating my favorite team in the copa libertadores finals last Saturday, the latin champions league. I never search for news explaining the movements, but now I am wondering: why did the odds on Palmeiras move steadily from 2 to 5 (closing odds) during the three days up to the match? Anyone with a fundamental analysis explaining this? - if there are no missing players on either team or other major events, Palmeiras is a favourite against Cuiabá and their win should have a value close to 2, not 5.

Palmeiras gave vacations to the main players after the Libertadores Cup title, other teams should do that in these last 2 rounds of the brasilerão. atletico mg (was champion today) and flamengo no longer have interests in the championship.

Sorry for delayed response. Rarely write here, haven't got much time these days.

@VidaBlue,
@S3kt0r,
@Acaciomacedo21,
Thank you all, I realized my serious mistake not to observe all the fundamental news for these two events before kick-off. My input facts in pre-analysis (fundamental part only) were not bad except these ones:

Palmeiras main team resting after Copa Libertadores final.
Post factum,yesterday I was told that Bragantino main team were awaiting for Copa Sudamericana decider match at Centenario...
I've remembered Liverpool vs Aston Villa case in December 2019, while first team were on their way to WorldCup win vs Flamengo.

@Ex-hft,
If I'm not wrong, you once told us somewhere in the forum, that you're a financial trader. I'm sure your style of positions making, technical analysis using, reliable signal making, stats processing and so on are high class ones. Probably you're better than me. My advice: add a nuance to your tech, such as fundamental analysis. You'll give more complexity, but if your interpretation is good, your sight for value might be sharpen. You need own quality approach for success. Those considering NYSE and FTSE positions while reading WSJ and FT probably lose points...
Look at these astonishing cases:
Basketball Euroleague: Olimpia Milano vs Olympiacos. Some signals insisted that this event have strong similarities to 2017 event Valencia basket vs Crvena zvezda mts. Downside is that Olympiacos' victory away eliminated potential prematch value for them before match vs Unics away...
A hint for you, if you try basket games. I've spotted some indications (for my future testing before real play) that there are possibilities for good entries in Olympiacos' games when future genius Vezenkov has no good shape ( he is NBA draft participant picked by Nets, and now by Cavaliers as far as I know). That potential value is not comfirmed by my model yet .
Or if you prefer soccer, let's see another case. There was value confirmed by real wagers. Yesterday held Greek Cup event Gamma Ethniki-7's member Agios Nikolaos hosted Super League2's member Anagennisi Karditsas. Very, very strong value in these markets Under 1,5 pre game and one or maybe two Asian Handicap markets in-play. These triggers were generated mostly due to fundamental part of the analysis. If you work only with technical one, you're pretty OK in the very long run, thus you work with cold trading / price action approach. In that case you think the fundamental analysis is included in the odds. Thankfully quality fundamental data into analysis may improve the results. Bear in mind, pre-odds implied Over 1,5 yesterday!
Or, in terms of Volleyball if you prefer, Champions League event Dinamo Moscow vs Projekt Warsaw. Pre odds were total absurd! Poland team and Andrea Anastasi HUGE underdogs? Sounds like Flamengo and Mario Zagallo HUGE underdogs... In my opinion, in that event no logical reasons for these odds were spotted pre match. Initial odds recovered somewhere when Dinamo lead 5:2 in 5-th set...

Thanks @arb12!

I wholly agree. And I do a lot of fundamental analysis - but all of it is automated, and there still are a lot of things that I miss, especially related to motivation (the last two rounds of the Serie A are a very good example), lineups (which I don't incorporate yet, even when the information is publicly available) and other news.

Also for cup / international games - I have no idea how to price them yet. Like your examples with the Champions League games - when there is no history of the teams playing at the same league, I don't know how to do fundamental analysis (so far).

I hope to learn more about the parts that I'm missing in the future. I'm sure that the more different viewpoints you combine, the better off you are in the end.

In the near future in my short list are selected many South American soccer matches . For instance, I watch closely Chilean Primera División events. Mostly the big three in Chile. Colo Colo, Universidad de Chile and Universidad Católica.
Don't you think that Gustavo Quinteros surpassed his teacher Xabier Azkargorta? Extraordinary things happen sometimes. In previos championship most successful team Colo Colo was almost relegated, when hired Quinteros (many titles holder in South America) done the magic in the final play-off and they avoided Primera B.
In current championship Quinteros' Colo Colo skyrocketed first at the top, miles better than their rivals, but currently second, behind Universidad Católica.
Nowadays Universidad de Chile struggling avoiding relegation, such as Colo Colo during last championship.
Many entries are possible here, provided that risk taken is calculated properly.

Chilean Primera División returned. The Big Three also. Quinteros' Colo Colo several days ago won the Supercup vs Universidad Católica (team, rebuilt by him years ago), but the agencies regretfully early prematch removed the value for Colo-Colo's win.
After Universidad de Chile's "magical salvation" (enormous value if you were caught it) at 95th minute of the last match of the last championship vs Unión La Calera, at the moment they are playing their opener vs the same opponent.
General statistics data set from the last championship was reset, the new data flow is coming, but in that División many data models and behavioristic models are sustainable during the years, only the performers are different.

Could anyone from Brasil share some info, about the Copa do Brasil event Altos (competing in Serie C) vs Flamengo? Exchanges blocked the event in in-running mode, and some bookies blocked the event partially, mainly during the second half. I haven't watched the event, but the result doesn't imply irregularities. Maybe some strange wagers or rumors? Thanks.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon May 02, 2022 7:17 am

Could anyone from Brasil share some info, about the Copa do Brasil event Altos (competing in Serie C) vs Flamengo? Exchanges blocked the event in in-running mode, and some bookies blocked the event partially, mainly during the second half. I haven't watched the event, but the result doesn't imply irregularities. Maybe some strange wagers or rumors? Thanks.

I'm Brazilian, I believe that nothing unusual happened in this game valid for the copa of Brazil, maybe some connectivity problem has caused it.

acaciomacedo21 wrote: ↑

Mon May 02, 2022 1:12 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon May 02, 2022 7:17 am

Could anyone from Brasil share some info, about the Copa do Brasil event Altos (competing in Serie C) vs Flamengo? Exchanges blocked the event in in-running mode, and some bookies blocked the event partially, mainly during the second half. I haven't watched the event, but the result doesn't imply irregularities. Maybe some strange wagers or rumors? Thanks.

I'm Brazilian, I believe that nothing unusual happened in this game valid for the copa of Brazil, maybe some connectivity problem has caused it.

@ Acaciomacedo21,
I considered some entries in that market, but many platforms were inactive, and as far as I remember, somewhere on that forum I read that Orbit and Betfair blocked some accounts due to participation in a Serie B event (suspected irregular match according to them), and later those amounts were returned to the players.
Thanks for the info and many profits in your work.