Arbusers

Hello to all the connoisseurs of South American soccer,
That weekend I strived to pursue some valuable entry points, triggered by my calculations, regardin' some South American soccer markets.
Several Argentinean soccer matches were very comfortable in terms of probabilities for attacking the "Under XXX goals" markets. So far OK (the computed probabilities and Reward/Risk ratios worked pretty OK here), but when it comes to the following two clashes, described below, I have learned some valuable lessons:
- Brasil, Série A, São Paulo vs Goiás:
My leading calculated probability insisted on a lesser difference between these teams at that moment, unlike the implied probabilities by the initially published odds. However, I was wrong in terms of the expected goals. The six goals case was so far from my initial calculated outputs. My business plan for that game pursued the "Under XXX goals" market in terms of pre-match position. Another error was the lack of correct estimations of the teams' starting line-ups and the right estimation for the influence of the substitutions. In the time interval between the fifth and the sixth of the scored goals, both the coaches made 9 substitutions. Other underestimations on my side were about some possible side effects of the tempo of the play, and also the underestimation of the high efficiency of the attacks, performed by the Goiás team, no matter that two of the substitutions were performed by the São Paulo team, aiming for defensive approach. The six saved goals from the opponent's defense department, when much of the major Stats were slightly negative for the Goiás team, shows very clearly the Goiás' efficiency in the offensive plan in that game away. Last, but not least, there was an error on my side in the live estimation of São Paulo's defense dept that day - all the goals for the visitors were made when all the defensive players were in their own penalty area.
- Chile, Primera División, Colo Colo vs Huachipato:
Having in mind, that el entrenador Quinteros has some problems in the defense dept (easy goals conceded lately, for instance, those vs the Audax Italiano and Everton teams, unwanted red cards, etc), and also counting the struggling in the attacking phase vs Ñublense recently, I decided to change my plan and to build my entries against implied probabilities in terms of the number of the expected goals and the spread, offered by the agencies. The business plan required some positions for a win for the Colo Colo team, but below the widely offered by the various bookies' area of Over 2,5 - Over 2.75, and also below AH from -1.5 or -1.75, predicted by the odds compilers.
My lesson here was that the unexpected Huachipato's approach started at a score of 0:0, somewhere after the 60th minute. Until the late goal, somehow luckily scored by Colo Colo via shooting from 25 meters across all the defenders in the penalty area, the visitors quite successfully neutralize the Colo Colo attacks and the home team practically had no goal chances. A similar approach was successfully implemented by the much more classy Ñublense team on that venue recently. Very risky from my side, but I decided not to put hedge positions after the 60th minute, despite I had spotted the very quality new defensive performance of the visiting team in the last third of the runtime.
I'd love to read some points of view from players, who participated in those South American betting markets, described above, or similar ones. Especially the opinions of residents there. I'll be glad if there are South American soccer lovers, practicing the on-the-fly quality analysis and tending to turn that one into quantitative analysis.
Thanks in advance.

Argentinean LPF. Monitored by my model some families of curves, describing the behavior of some teams, are starting to change recently, while some other data regarding these teams are not exactly synchronous with these curves. That puzzled me. In my view, some possible changes are coming, but no strong reliable triggers for the betting markets have yet emerged. To varying degrees of the above, I mean the following teams: Boca Juniors, Gimnasia La Plata, River Plate, and Atlético Tucumán.
While I await the upcoming pitch behavior of monitored teams, other ideas are now being tested. I'm diggin' into the Reserva LPF matches, and estimate some possible ideas for strengthening the awful defense dept of the Boca Jrs team. I'm also trying to model the situation of possibly raising the quality of the attacking dept and overall synchronization between all the departments of the River Plate team. For instance, the cases when counterattacks are in progress against them. Or the cases when despite the superiority of River Plate's midfield, they easily allow dangerous attacks from the opposing team with a few passes. And so on.
River and Boca teams are currently 13th and 15th respectively, while their teams in the Reserva LPF are 1st and 5th respectively, and I'm trying to pre-estimate some implementations of Boca and River with other players in the first teams in the very near future if that happens.
I spotted very few, but relatively strong signals against the Gimnasia La Plata and Atlético Tucumán teams. I mean overall their performance on the pitch. I'm striving to pre-assess these few signals, combined with their present quality of play, and further build probabilities for their appearances in the new interval of matches.
Additionally, the most important thing is how exactly to play the future matches of these teams, for example, to extract some value from the odds I calculated vs the ones, offered by the market.

Chilean Primera División. The coach Quinteros in the previous Championship after the initial leadership lost the title in the last three rounds. Knowing his manner of work in his coaching career so far, I have constructed the probabilities of winning in some markets, relying on his delicate trend to fine-tune his team, Colo Colo. He overcame the team's mini-crisis pretty well due to some erratic behavior in the defensive department, achieving better defense but sacrificing better attacking behavior for his team. Therefore, I have noticed some very likely cases of attack in some markets when the Under and Against the Spread markets have been profitable recently. I'm wondering exactly how to make a profit when it comes to the other historically great teams in Chile - Universidad Católica and Universidad de Chile. Now I am testing some scenarios whether avoiding the possibility of relegation is possible or not regarding the team with good results from the last championship - the Antofagasta team. A lot of materials and data to evaluate, several rounds to the end of the current championship.

If there are some researchers of the forecasting methods, described in the literature (for example, Prof. Spyros Makridakis' methods), some further developed by you non-standard applications based on that processing might be used in the business.

For instance, when it comes to the River Plate team in the last conditional time interval (accounting for the peculiarities of Marcelo Gallardo's working style is a must), the progress on that team fits pretty well here (I mean the standings progress lately, after the mediocre past conditional time interval, as well as game behavior too). There are some early indications of increasing stressors on the Gimnasia La Plata team (well positioned in the simulations, low extremums are projected soon) and especially on the Atlético Tucumán team (the simulations suggest that if the defensive superiority remains to the same quality, then performance in situations rarely clean to score a goal must rise sharply, otherwise the team's leadership position may be threatened earlier than expected by the model). In the short future interval the three complex curves, describing the aforementioned teams, may be steady with low expected extremums (Atlético triggers some warnings here), but the potential progress for River Plate still won't skyrocket like Enzo Francescoli's River Plate era.

However, for the Boca Juniors team, due to their big fluctuations in the LPF (mainly away, poor defense dept), the medium-term and long-term estimations are on hold via these methods - I think some changes are coming. Their perfect team is not here, but in Reserva LPF - 20:3 goal difference for July and August, a few hours ago very pleasant performing on the pitch and won 6:0 away.

By the way, recently more agencies are offering very good limits for the Argentine Torneo Federal A, even four-figure offers have been seen, there are many live video streams, but I'd like to hear from residents playing in these markets. Non-Argentines don't know these footballers and coaches in detail. Any recommendations by your side?
Thanks in advance.

I'm not so sure if the River Plate team has launched temporarily a kind of tactical retreat at the beginning of the second half, or due to Montes's entrance the Central Córdoba team tried more possession and some attacking options, but the River Plate team after the 65th minute decided to return to the more quality way of playing. That initial period in the second half has to be reanalyzed again. The next step is accounting for the Tigre's team attacking peculiarities, they have two faces vs classy teams so far, for example, the attacking behavior vs Atlético Tucumán, and that spotted vs Racing club recently. These and some other steps (defensive departments estimations and so on) will help to build some variants for Handicap lines, other markets, and also their probabilities prior to the future clash on 28.08 - Tigre vs River Plate.

By the way, I was so impressed with Santos vs São Paulo, just finished, and the away team applied enormous press but Joao Paulo's door was locked. No triggered positions for me here, but some data and statistics were collected for further analysis.

I've remembered Néstor Apuzzo's successful Atlético Huracán (Copa and Supercopa winner). They're currently third in the table points.
Prior to the match vs Arsenal de Sarandí away, Atlético Huracán has the best visiting team so far, with one-point advantage. But the Stats data and playing style as a visiting team revealed no superiority as a visiting team, but hard tactical struggles. Those facts gave me good probabilities to construct some rationales for Atlético Huracán's Handicap lines prematch.
Also, a potential penalty situation in the 44th minute and over 70 percent possession for the visitors so far, combined with a goal just scored by Arsenal, set the stage for some strong extra points going into the final third of the game.

The Reserva LPF super show River Plate vs Boca Juniors at the moment. The players perform pretty well under the Argentinean sun now. There were good pre-match markets in many agencies, but why in in-play mode many agencies are absent? Somethin' is suspected on and out the pitch, money flow patterns, or something else shady? I spot a very good battle on the pitch at the moment.

Second day in a row derby between Xeneizes and River Plate. After yesterday's Reserva LPF match between these teams, today's LPF match is quite different.

The next stage of Argentine's title battle has been underway for some time now. Those who carefully build their own odds in this league are prepared for the likely occasions when the defensive departments of the teams Atlético Tucumán and Gimnasia La Plata will be under the gun. The teams currently in first and second have relied on superb defense so far (Atlético Huracán, currently third, and Godoy Cruz, currently fourth, are completely different stories). Regardless of if and when Atlético Tucuman and Gimnasia La Plata's defense may fail, their current attacking department cannot make up for it and the title attack could fail if the attacking tactical approach remains the same. Probabilistic scenarios are ready to use.

In the first half, Boca and River just attacked cautiously, nothing more. Very soon in the second half, +0 AH will appear among the baselines, and depending on the current tactical approaches and some substitutions, additional predefined entries/exits will be possible. A tie will stop both teams from making early attacks for the title.

The Xeneizes team just scored. A slightly classier game by River was wasted due to more attention to defense in terms of the number of defenders. Let's see if River Plate distributes the weapons more judiciously going forward.

La Primera División de Chile is closer to the last stage.

Among the teams, struggling to avoid relegation, I'm keeping a close eye on the triad of the Universidad de Chile, Antofagasta, and La Serena teams. The flow of data regarding those teams is very interesting right now. There are opportunities to use probability theory on this group of teams until the end of the championship. If we've selected a group of events, let's say a group of teams and a group of matches until the end of the competition, that theory can help us construct some probabilities for some observed outcomes, provided that the data analysis is carefully selected.
So, according to the aforementioned, plus what is observed as their behavior on the pitch so far, those selected teams can form the XYZ probability matrix for a UVW result (probability ranking after 30 rounds). Of course, that's a very dynamic state and carefully selected data (including qualitative data transformed into processed data) should be updated accordingly after each round.

In my view, according to the generated outputs by the model, as of today, there are some discrepancies in various markets' odds like BTTS, AH, 1x2, and so on. I mean discrepancies between some future pre-games published odds as of today and the calculated ones. But that's a hypothesis only, judge for yourself.

There're some assumptions, supported by my observations in that División so far.
I think that for the purposes of the computation of the probability of successfully avoiding the relegation regarding the Universidad de Chile team, you simply have to look out for the quality of the activities of the defensive dept of that team till the end of the Championship.
No matter that Universidad is among the Big Three in the country, the historic data analysis nowadays is not what it used to be, be careful in the computations of your odds after the relegations of the teams such as Schalke'04 (2021) and River Plate (2011). Nevertheless, they need only a careful defense dept till the end.
My advice is - Look at the defensive players and their behavior at every moment of their performance from now on and judge it on the fly.

The task is much more difficult for the teams of Antofagasta and La Serena, so very complex evaluations must be present from now on for each department, the tactical behavior, etc. However, some calculations are not that difficult if you know that league and those teams. As said earlier, some odds discrepancies regarding some markets are visible on all sides. If you've never watched them, and you're only processing the last relevant data, you'll probably notice something. However, it is highly recommended to watch them regularly on the pitch and you're about to see the deep picture.

And finally - you can choose to divide the total remaining period and the total probability into smaller intervals and calculate their odds. See their interactions and update your interventions in the markets. For example, after an hour or something will start Universidad de Chile vs Audax Italiano, which is fighting for the Copa Sudamericana entrance. The analysis implies, that the possibilities for events A and B, in markets C and D, are E and F respectively.
Let's target some fluctuations of the probabilities regarding the future clash of La Serena vs Universidad de Chile - as of today, your early computed probabilities for A1, B1 in C1, D1 are E1, F1. Ok, but imagine that after a few hours, Audax beat Universidad. The aforementioned variables E1, F1 become questionable to some extent and must be recalculated. Additionally, imagine, that Antofagasta also overcomes Palestino (probability S). Therefore, due to Chile's "score difference, if points are equal" rule and other factors, these variables may change to E2, F2, or even Y1, Z1, depending on your model. And so on. The hypothetical cases and inputs are almost endless, and you need to set some adequate, time-proven filters.
Ultimately, a recalculation is required in terms of the new remaining period to the end, if you have chosen a breakdown of smaller events. Next iterations to come, etc.
I'd love to read opinions and viewpoints from the followers of that División.

Today is the title-decider round of la LPF Argentine, isn't it?

In a few time, those clashes are goin' to start:
- Boca Juniors vs Independiente;
- Racing Club vs River Plate;
- Patronato vs Atlético Huracán.
So, a possible business plan may contain a complex market exposure as the main task.
One of the subtasks here is to calculate different game strategies and their possible implementations for 2 out of 4 teams (I mean Boca vs. Ind and Racing vs. River matches) so that in the end, we calculate the probabilities that Boca Jrs team or Racing Club team will eventually finish as Champions.
An auxiliary subtask here is to "predict" some team strategies and their implementations for 2 of the 4 teams (the Racing vs. River and Pat vs. Atl H. group of matches) so that we can construct the probabilities of a maximally good LPF finish regarding the River Plate team and the Atlético Huracán team as well.

Naturally, from the latest and most relevant Statistics and data, it's possible to calculate the initial weights for all six mentioned teams before the final round. The incorporation of the starting motivation for all six aforementioned teams into the initial odds also. Do you see anything unusual here, in the "motivation" rating?

Among the factors that can help me manage my market positions in relation to Boca Juniors are the following:
I'm not sure if Dario Benedetto will be in the starting line-up, but I get the impression that in the last conditional explored period, the Xeneizes' coach is exploring how to reduce Boca Jrs's heavy reliance on Benedetto's current form.
The Boca Juniors team logically overcame 15th place some time ago, but a terribly poor start for the defensive department has not been completely overcome in the end. Do you remember the recent game against Newell's Old Boys a few days ago?

What exactly is the reason Pinnacle is missing right now in the Copa do Brasil Cruzeiro vs Náutico clash?

The Argentinean "Copa de la Liga Profesional" first Semifinal has just ended, Godoy Cruz A.T. vs Atlético Platense.

Can't believe it - 9 penalties were missed during the penalty shoot-outs.
Uno,dos, tres, ... , nueve!
What a show!

Waiting for the next Semifinal in Córdoba after a while - River Plate vs Rosario Central...