Arbusers

All the best everyone, happy 2022!
At a new starting point is always good for us to re-analyze some events we've witnessed in our practice. Let's share a bit of experience from last month or the last two months of the previous year if you want.

When it comes to Volleyball:

Camillo Placì's quality work may give us value in some cases, especially when he leads teams considered as no heavy favorites, and agencies underestimate some pre-match facts about given team. I know very well his working style in the coaching business. It's based primarily on his quality statistician work. For instance, see his work in Fakel(Russia), in some national teams like Russia, Serbia, Bulgaria.

Champions League 2021: Hebar team.
After the win achieved in Piraeus earlier (enormous value there if you were backed them), a possible value was spotted in their home match vs Friedrichshafen. My projected probability for Hebar's win was circa 50%, and there were agencies' odds for them over 2.15 and a bookie over 2.30!

Club World Championship, Final.
At first sight published odds for Lube Civitanova and Sada Cruzeiro were in order, especially if you watched their performance during that tournament. But 24 hours earlier I've seen the best match in that championship - the final before the final! The semifinal LubeBanca vs Trentino caused accumulated tiredness for Lube and a lucky win. Therefore my projected odds for the final game vs Brasilian team were slightly different than published ones, but in favor of Lube.
That final match taught me to give more probability in pre-assessment in favor of the so-called underdog in some specific circumstances, 3:0 for Cruzeiro in the end.

Tennis Fall 2021,

Lack of main events here and spotted big value at two appearances of former top master Pablo Cuevas. He's questionable many times lately due to health problems or something, but some calculated risk was taken twice - huge value caught vs Kovacevic in challenger held in Mexico and first round in Florianopolis vs Alvarez Varona.
Waiting for Australia and future big tournaments

Regardin' Cricket in late 2021:

Let's say the USA are rookies in that kind of sport. On the pitch in Lauderhill, first T20 match vs Ireland (bear in mind, they are Test nation in the Cricket!), in their part of the inning (the USA have chosen to bat first), the US team achieved an amazing 188 for 6! Remember, initial odds in most of the agencies were something like 6 till 8 or above for the US team pre-match.
That was the ideal entry point for some pre-selected strategies.
The Irish attacks in their Innings and the American defense were incredible for cricket lovers, they had some other expectations for end result based on the evolutionary status of the teams so far.
Regretfully, missed the moment to enter the market safely and eventually chose not to take part here... I've learned that my risk tolerance in some special circumstances may vary. Later backtested that event and have found other hypotheses for my further participation in such kinds of events.


Big Bash Aussie Cricket, the only major competition in December (Except "The Ashes" vs England),

Adelaide Strikers' chase vs Brisbane Heat (testin' lots of ideas),
and Perth Scorchers' building points vs Melbourne Renegades, huge tradin' opportunities have arisen.
The Aussies introduced several rules improvements. I'm seeking some advantage of them, for instance how to cash in upon a new rule - splitting the first six overs' Powerplay into an initial 4 plus 2 later in the match after the tenth over. Personally testin' very interesting ideas there, but statistics sample is very small yet...

I find your posts very interested and intriguing.
Also, I am trying to follow your logic in selecting teams and already I am happy with the results, maybe pure luck, who knows?
I have a request from you, could you post your betting selections in real time mentioning the team, the result, the bookmaker and height of stake. Pretty much I am asking you to operate as a sister instead of an analyst. Like this we will all benefit.
Thank you and have a happy new year.

@Neopas,
Thanks for your interest in my ideas.
I share some of them on this site from time to time.
But I'm not interested in picking the winners. My goal is long time cash-in. I'm keen on several sports and their fundaments and also on statistics processing, these ones are the base for my evolution, nothing more. Studying the financial markets and maths, in general, gives us a blessing.
Picking the winners in any market is a short-run race, in my opinion not so profitable in the long run unless you're a betting genius. But bear in mind, every pick gives us more material for analysis.
I am not a very good predictor when it comes to a given market, my aim is systematic capital growing. Don't you notice there are self-critical opinions in my postings? Generally, I'm not very confident in markets I've participated in. That is a mandatory base for self-evolution in my opinion.
I allowed myself to hint at only one "pick" here at this site prior to the event, PAS Lamia'64 vs Volos NFC. Frankly, my pre-analysis underlined to break Volos' losing strike and even to pick Volos' win. Interim coach at the helm and some other facts collected and processed. Almost done, but think, was that would help to you in the short run? Volos was ahead 2:0 as a visiting team and eventually 2:2, but some trading entries were made and profit made done on my side. The reaction was fast on my side, only the experience save my capital from lowering. How may I publish to you sudden turnarounds
and momentarily reactions on my side have taken in real time ?

@Neopas, I'm pretty sure the agencies' reps are reading here in that forum and I don't want to publish my ideas in real time. They may harm all of us. On the other hand, if you're interested in some picks, I just contacted the owners of the site. They may forward to you some helpful thoughts.
I'll think about how to be more helpful to you in the future. Not an easy task, in my opinion. Again, I'm not considering myself as a short-time player. If I was published my "prediction" about Napoli's win vs Spezia and Over 2,5 picks (regardin' my pre-analysis), would that help to you or not? Eventually, Napoli lost at home... I was "wrong" in terms of short-time picks here. I won't harm you at all through short-time picks.

Generally, you may sum your fundamental analysis with a Law of large numbers in terms of Statistics. Active money management is advisable. Read Ralph Vince, John Kelly Junior, and others.
Again, I'll think about how to fulfill your request in the future. On the other hand, some hidden hints are published in the postings for you all. These are only some thoughts, not proven to be right on my side. I'm in my way, maybe, but I'm not so confident yet.
Greetings

P.S. Your posting gives me the idea to publish the events beyond two or three Sigmas in the short run, I will write some things within some days. But I'm going to publish some interesting events from my archives regardin' American football, soccer, and basketball prior to that.

Football in terms of the NFL. Some of them.

In my viewpoint skewed odds attracted my attention to the Bears@Seahawks match, funny odds gave us all the agencies, my pre-analysis gave minimal advance for Seahalk in terms of the Moneyline. Taken minimal part in that event because of a lack of strong triggers. Fourth quarter and 11 for zero shaped the turnaround.
Bookies were right in terms of the implied probabilities provided that the trend of the game of the first three quarters wasn't broken in the fourth quarter. I am going to observe various data samples to improve my model for the NFL. An educational event for me, among other related ones.

Very good for me Steelers@ The Chiefs, but I wonder in case of achieved spread was strongly triggered in the model, is there a reliable agency to participate in. Not to mention at some stage in the 3-rd quarter, the spread touched 30 pts...

Similar question regardin' Ravens@Bengals, very OK for me, but most agencies published projected total somethin' like 42-43 or something. No one gave odds for the final total of 62...

NY Giants@Eagles, I've spotted that surprisingly the visitors slowed down the host's performance and only 3:3 after half-time. In-play analysis triggered strong triggers for various markets.

Jacksonville Jaguars situation observing, after coach change.
And so forth.



When it comes to Soccer,

Italy

Napoli vs Spezia. That event showed me some weaknesses in my pre- and in-play analysis. There was a mix of signals with noises, no good triggers anyway. Post-analysis surprisingly wasn't so productive for me, I believe that it didn't show me the main reasons, but minors for the final score. Personally exclude side factors here, but who knows... So, I have to learn more and more.

Don't get me wrong, personally not a tipster and don't like to predict results, but from the viewpoint of the systematic business, I am seeking to minimize wrong decisions and to improve good ones. Every wrong decision is a cash leak, but on the other hand, every non-successful conclusion may give us a little bit of wisdom when properly analyzed afterward.

Hellenic Super League, U19

Two pre-selected by my criteria events played within several hours.
PAOK Thessaloniki vs PAS Lamia'64 - the match between the senior teams and the event between under19 ones. Very similar odds, but in my view senior PAOK was overestimated by the bookies, no value for me, and eventually I restrained to participate there. Missed a good chance, but the risk/reward ratio was too unacceptable.

But mentioned SL U19's match was an experimental field for testing some new ideas.
Opened positions in some markets, backed by deep fundamental conclusions.
Surprisingly there was a lack of major events on the pitch first 60 minutes of the gameplay.
At this time, I was considering hedging some of my positions due to the good implementation of Papanikolaou's tactic, but avoided that because needed to start a series of data to collect for the experiment.
De facto first serious threat for Tropoulos was converted for 1:0, 4:0 afterward.
Eventually, markets like 1x2, handicaps, etc were OK for me, but the more important thing was the new approach testing.

By the way, when it comes to PAOK, I took part in risky entries in the second leg for the Hellenic Cup, PAOK vs AEL Larissa.
After relatively non-effective PAOK's guns, at a score of 1:0 (AEL's own goal), Lucescu didn't decide to make big tactic changes yet. Potential, but minor value triggered at some time despite attacking oriented substitution against hosts - Acuña's appearance. Moderate risks were taken up in terms of a home win and a goal market. Eventually OK for me, but have to work for some readjustment. Realized that the risk/reward ratio wasn't optimized, because of 4-3-3 and attacking style for AEL at some time...

The material is received from Arbusers, many thanks to both of you and especially @arb12.
Is this material free on internet or is it something personal? I mean, are you any of these authors that I see the names? I understand you are Greek, is that right?
And here it comes my next and more important question: Why spend so much time in crunching the numbers without making any profit from it? I see it as a process, where theory must be confirmed by practice and in this case we are not talking about paper betting, but real money betting.
I m very much intrigued by your posts and I also started analysing Volos deeper as seems to me the team is underrated by bookmakers and there is value there.
Thank you once again.

@Neopas,
Not an Author. Found somewhere on the Internet, as far as I recall, but every time workin' on a specific case myself searchin' for specific literature. I'm grateful to the Authors because of their sharing of the Knowledge they've found. Their names are on the title. In case you meet them someday, say big thanks from all the readers.
Not a Greek, but I know something about that country and culture, and about many other countries and their cultures, either.
A long time ago, a familiar from Greece, sporting fan, informed me about AEK, Dragoslav Stepanović, Dušan Bajević and so on.

Can't understand why you try to shape my work and profits via your vision for them?
Personally using the forum to exchange opinions and viewpoints, not to declare "picks" and profits. Published some of my testings (ideas), and some events in terms of real wagers, some analyses, some self-critics. Walkin' my way. In general, all the info may be helpful, even for a few people. And hope to read wise thoughts and ideas, from the World. Everyone has unique experiences and would be grateful when shared with us. The Knowledge is a Power.

Regardin' my impression of the Volos team, don't follow my ideas, test for yourself. If I'm wrong? Several times used them, only in the moments that value appeared in my model.
Real Madrid is considered as a top team. But you don't involve with them every matchday, do you? That's the same. Volos at the given matchday may be completely different at another matchday. You must analyze when and why. Seek for market assessment different from yours. And don't seek a single market event success (a.k.a. "picking" the winner), use the systematic approach and cash-in due to the general sum of events you've been involved in.

Regards and wish good luck

Euroleague Basketball,

Crvena Zvezda Mts vs Barçelona.
Even Novak Djokovic's appearance in the hall didn't help the host team. I was impressed by the 3-point unsuccessful attempts, produced by Crvena Zvezda Mts. Only three successful from 20 shots...No one was like Steph Curry (BTW, later that day Steph Curry became the all-time NBA's 3-point scorer at Madison Square Garden - Warriors@Knicks). On the other hand, that fact was backed by a nervous and unwary chase when the visitor's advantage lowered to 4 points. I've spotted also Jasikevicius' decisions and immediately backed Barca despite poor odds ( penny profit in the end) and left the handicap market due to stop loss decision. That was the wrong move, afterward, Barça covered the handicap entered earlier!

But two days later successfully was implemented that lesson due to minor change, when PAO covered the spread vs Barça.

A similar lack of successful 3-pts shots was in effect again several days later, when selected by me NCAAB event SouthFLA vs Wyoming. Only 2 made from 12 attempts for Bulls.
And most astonishing similar case - only 4 shots in target from 27 attempts for... Olympiacos vs PAO, domestic championship. WOW!

Wonder how to optimal handle the situation, when a top team within 5 days concedes two meltdowns in the 4th quarter. The match is going to end when the meltdown is confirmed and some variants are questionable for my model yet. In November Olympiacos did that vs Anadolu Efes (3:20 4th quarter, Euroleague) and vs PAO (17:33 4th part, domestic Championship, by the way very, very good Nedović for PAO and Vezenkov for Olympiacos).

Unics vs Zalgiris. Eurobasket generally produces lower scoring games than the NBA, but 42:42 after the third quarter is a rare event even in Europe. Bookies predicted odds for a total of 152 points or something (full time). Started to search some statistics samples for similar occasions, but did not complete that task at all. Not well prepared for some similar future action yet, but aimin' to go for it

Crvena Zvezda Mts vs Olympiacos in Belgrade, at some stage of the match, realized that the event is the ideal platform for observing the idea of how the free throws influenced the odds and the result in the underdog's favor. But the raw data must be processed for no time. More the quicker, the more the probability for value in the odds.

Real Madrid vs CSKA Moscow. Carefully watched how evolving the event, especially the final ten minutes. Very modest positions for some reasons. Not only the madness of the oddsmakers due to absences of Real's main players and even Pablo Laso. Somehow I felt that Itoudis wasn't allowed to realize himself here.

Hellenic Cup, AEK Athens vs Peristeri. Very funny odds in terms of the MoneyLine and the points handicap. In general, AEK team is stronger, but in my opinion, the odds compilers overestimated AEK's defeat vs Treviso several days earlier and gave favorable odds for Peristeri team. Easy value caught by me, but in the first quarter AEK had some problems, indeed.

Honda Governors Cup,
The first loss in that tournament for NLEX was caught, versus Phoenix, surprisingly very clear signals triggered for that, not sure if are all the facts and statistics data processed quality. If not, that was pure luck. Checkings needed.


NBA, lovely NBA!
Poor implemented by my model strategy regardin' spread, Rockets@Cavaliers, 35 pts spread at the end of the match was educational for me. Must readjust some things in my model to avoid similar results.

Very pleased by participatin' in Celtics@Bucks, produced by those strong triggers, caused constantly opened new positions backing Milwaukee despite they were behind Boston almost all the gameplay till the last minute of the match. At some stage Bucks were behind the underdog by circa 18 or 19 points. Antetokounmpo was great as usual.
My task now in post-analysis is to give a much more adequate assessment about risk accepted in that event, related to the very long run when similar events happen.
There are some similarities with the event Barçelona vs Unics. Similar odds pre-match, a similar turnaround for the strong favorite. At some stage, they were behind the underdog by circa 20 points, but I didn't open positions there, lack of signals.

Past events, but a fresh experience. Hope to improve some things in the future. Keep walking on the way.

neopas wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:24 am

I also started analysing Volos deeper as seems to me the team is underrated by bookmakers and there is value there.

Volos paid today. Wondering if bookmakers will also identify how underrated this team is.

@Neopas,
Congratulations for your success and be careful in the future when searching for the fundament.
Ironically, wasn't able to find value here in that match versus PAO pre-match. I am building my model yet.
At this stage, I was diggin' much more on Spurs and Liverpool matches for the FA. But at this time watched Volos NFC versus PAO. Have to stress, that in my opinion before the red card for PAO they were much better despite the goal conceded. In the second half, Volos team was superior! But my model didn't find value to enter the market. Must update.

neopas wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:24 am

The material is received from Arbusers

@ Neopas,
Do you want to accept some material from Arbusers? Let's say 20 pieces more or something.
Regards and good luck.

I got paid massively by Volos against AEK and Aris, these were major surprises. But at the same time suffered a little bit by Ionikos surprise.
Thank you for highlighting.
But now it seems to me after these games bookmakers will expect upsets from Volos and they will change the way they rate this team. I will reduce my exposure to Volos from now on.
The fresh material is received. I will need much time to study.

neopas wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 6:44 pm

I got paid massively by Volos against AEK and Aris, these were major surprises. But at the same time suffered a little bit by Ionikos surprise.
Thank you for highlighting.
But now it seems to me after these games bookmakers will expect upsets from Volos and they will change the way they rate this team. I will reduce my exposure to Volos from now on.
The fresh material is received. I will need much time to study.

Thanks for your answer,
Right now I'm so busy, have some positions on English Premier League, Colombia, Brasil domestic and Euroleague Basketball, after some time I'll reply to you, I have some warnings and recommendations to you.