Tennis arbing question!

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anormal1992
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Tennis arbing question!

Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:30 pm

Hello. I have a question related with tennis arbing. We all know that different sportbooks might have different rules about settling tennis matches. Does it worth to worry about rules that bookies might have in arbs where both odds are around 2 . If in a match a player is retired then obviosly one book may void bet and the other one may settle bet as winner ore loser. But this might happen in your favour too so maybe its better to not worrie about bookie rules ? Give me your opinions.
PS. Once again i am talking about arbs when both odds are near 2 ...for example 2.3 and 1.9 when stakes are not too much different from each side and if the rules go against you might cause you to lose max 1 side stake.
Thanks for your time.
xenix
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 6:24 am

it only takes a minute to check rules b4 betting .. i've made a word file (cheat sheet) for tennis and ice hockey since i lost a tennis bet 2 months ago due to one side abandoning the game early .. its a solid tactic the cheat sheet you can check the rules in a matter of seconds.
To answer your question  i personally worry about rules .. when the rules are totally different but the arb is too good to let go .. i bet small or not at all.

Maybe a more seasoned member then me could answer this question more clearly for ya
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 6:39 am

risilloch
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 7:55 am

When i first started I was ignorant of the effect of tennis rules in the event of a retirement. I made a tidy profit on my first one - purely by accident. This possibly gave me a false sense of security!

From my records I have had 42 retirements only 2 of which have resulted in profit. So that is actually quite a big net loss.

Last year I vowed not to mix after yet another loss.
But the French Open came around and I was tempted by a large mixed-rules arb so I piled in, much more than my normal amounts.

Yes, you guessed it! It was retirement so that was a month's profit gone. (Tursonov - you pr*ck).

So I have a new vow, don't mix rules unless the 'settle after 1 set' bookie is offering odds of 5 or more
(to try and minimise the loss in the event of retirement). And don't touch matches involving players with a russian sounding name - my observation is that they are much more likely to be involved in match fixing.

There was a good thread on the now defunct arbforum site that had a theory that the 'settle after 1 set' bookie had slightly higher odds (and so create an arb) because of the possibility of a retirement falling in their favour.

At the time I thought what a lot of bollocks but my records would seem to indicate that there might be something to it!
BO
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 8:14 am

there's retirements all the time in tennis. mixing rules is not arbitrage as there is risk involved. some players retire all the time some like federer never do.

if a player has is playing with a slight injury and there is a chance he could not finish the match this is worked in to the odds as risilloch said which could make an arb which you could end up losing big on. on the flip side you can make it work in your favour.
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 9:12 am

Keep in mind : in-play rules might be different from pre-match rules..
BO
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 10:07 am

If you blindly take mixed rules tennis arbs without knowing which players are serial retirers (start crying if they break a finger nail), which players are known to match fix and those that are playing while carrying injuries you are going to end up out of pocket.
anormal1992
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:16 am

risilloch wrote: When i first started I was ignorant of the effect of tennis rules in the event of a retirement. I made a tidy profit on my first one - purely by accident. This possibly gave me a false sense of security!

From my records I have had 42 retirements only 2 of which have resulted in profit. So that is actually quite a big net loss.

Last year I vowed not to mix after yet another loss.
But the French Open came around and I was tempted by a large mixed-rules arb so I piled in, much more than my normal amounts.

Yes, you guessed it! It was retirement so that was a month's profit gone. (Tursonov - you pr*ck).

So I have a new vow, don't mix rules unless the 'settle after 1 set' bookie is offering odds of 5 or more
(to try and minimise the loss in the event of retirement). And don't touch matches involving players with a russian sounding name - my observation is that they are much more likely to be involved in match fixing.

There was a good thread on the now defunct arbforum site that had a theory that the 'settle after 1 set' bookie had slightly higher odds (and so create an arb) because of the possibility of a retirement falling in their favour.

At the time I thought what a lot of bollocks but my records would seem to indicate that there might be something to it!
42retirements and only 2 on your favour ? This looks like impossible, i always thought that in the long run you will always have a profit taking this arbs. I know that betting the bookies with same rules is better,obvious, but this thread is about taking or letting go arbs with different rules.In SurebetMonitor blog i read that in the long run would always take a profit from these bets. Do you have any statistics about player retirements ? For example how much is the possibility of a player retirement after set 1 ? Thanks.
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:32 am

In some situations the risk is only on the downside. For example you bet on player A +1.5 ( set handicap) on Pinny against B -1.5 on a soft book that voids set handicaps unless the outcome of the bet has already been  determined at the time of the retirement. Pinnacle will void in case of an early retirement regardless the score. You can never benefit if a player retires in such a match.
Last edited by qbet on Thu Jun 13, 2013 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
anormal1992
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:20 pm

I have at the moment 1090 euro bet on moneyline on pinny and 940 euros on another bookie. Total profit in case of no player retirement is 81 euro with means a 4% arb. In case of player retirement after 1 set I can have a win of 1020 euro or a loss of 1090. I think it worths playing and arbitrage like this because on long term i would always hae a profit playing arbitrages like this one. Let see what happens!
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:17 pm

anormal1992 wrote: I have at the moment 1090 euro bet on moneyline on pinny and 940 euros on another bookie. Total profit in case of no player retirement is 81 euro with means a 4% arb. In case of player retirement after 1 set I can have a win of 1020 euro or a loss of 1090. I think it worths playing and arbitrage like this because on long term i would always hae a profit playing arbitrages like this one. Let see what happens!
When there is even a slight chance to loose your stake it is not called arbing but gambling.
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:20 pm

Tocko wrote: http://rebelbetting.com/faq/tennis-rules

is this correct?
nice, add sportingbet at group 2
anormal1992
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:33 pm

Pesh wrote:
anormal1992 wrote: I have at the moment 1090 euro bet on moneyline on pinny and 940 euros on another bookie. Total profit in case of no player retirement is 81 euro with means a 4% arb. In case of player retirement after 1 set I can have a win of 1020 euro or a loss of 1090. I think it worths playing and arbitrage like this because on long term i would always hae a profit playing arbitrages like this one. Let see what happens!
When there is even a slight chance to loose your stake it is not called arbing but gambling.
I thought you were a newbie -.-" Arbing is not risk free...Even if there is a risk to lose the stake obviosly there is value at this arbitrage. Anyway opinions of some of most experienced arbers would be welcomed.
qbet
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:34 pm

anormal1992 wrote: I have at the moment 1090 euro bet on moneyline on pinny and 940 euros on another bookie. Total profit in case of no player retirement is 81 euro with means a 4% arb. In case of player retirement after 1 set I can have a win of 1020 euro or a loss of 1090. I think it worths playing and arbitrage like this because on long term i would always hae a profit playing arbitrages like this one. Let see what happens!

This is a good bet.
Pesh
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Re: Tennis arbing question!

Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:36 pm

anormal1992 wrote:
Pesh wrote:
anormal1992 wrote: I have at the moment 1090 euro bet on moneyline on pinny and 940 euros on another bookie. Total profit in case of no player retirement is 81 euro with means a 4% arb. In case of player retirement after 1 set I can have a win of 1020 euro or a loss of 1090. I think it worths playing and arbitrage like this because on long term i would always hae a profit playing arbitrages like this one. Let see what happens!
When there is even a slight chance to loose your stake it is not called arbing but gambling.
I thought you were a newbie -.-" Arbing is not risk free...Even if there is a risk to lose the stake obviosly there is value at this arbitrage. Anyway opinions of some of most experienced arbers would be welcomed.
Yes I am a newbie and I sincerely apologize for taking part in the discussion then.

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