Value betting guide.

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon May 16, 2016 5:35 pm

@arber28,
I also studied the changing bet based on strength of pick idea.
Looks pretty good, had it plugged in the spreadsheet the 1st month when I was only tracking and it increased profits about 13% on my end.
It's a 13% increase this month also (versus flat betting) so I may have to change from 2.5% flat bet to a bet based on value %'s.
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PepSLO
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed May 18, 2016 10:48 am

Good to know that someone else is also doing better in this way. That means that it was not only luck.. :)
RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun May 22, 2016 7:17 am

ya go thru ur numbers and see how under dogs and unders perform. My guess is that you'll see a higher ROI with those games.
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RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Wed May 25, 2016 8:58 am

I agree with you seeing others do the same thing and them doing OK at it is a good sign.

Here's a little tool I was playing with when i planning this idea.

http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/
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devito
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:56 am

The idea of comparing softbooks' odds with Pinnacle/Sbo in order to find value bets is quite interesting and, in general, profitable. However, ony must pay attention to two things, which I think need to be clarified if we want to refine this "value betting guide":
1. What if Pinnacle odds and sbo odds don't agree with each other? For example, in a handicap market one has odds 1.80 - 2.10 and the other 2.00 - 1.90. Who should we rely upon in order to identify a value bet? Does it depend on the sport, on the betting limits, or what?
2. What about niche markets with very low limits in Pinnacle?  There are markets with only 100 euros limit. Can we say that those current Pinnacle odds are reliable? Do they represent the actual odds? If I bet 100 euros on one result, I guess the odds in Pinnacle will change dramatically.

I haven't come up to definite answers to these issues yet. Any ideas are welcome.
RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:46 pm

Hey Hey Danny,

I can only speak of what I do and I compare Pinny odds to softbooks.
I'm sure there are better minds on this site that will be able to answer your questions better.
I also avoid niche markets with small caps as the odds aren't as reliable imo.
If they were why only take a $500 max bet?
Basically I look for mlb and soccer at the moment.
There's a calculator out there where you can find out the true odds minus the pinny vig.
I like to keep things simple and easy and just target odds a certain % over pinny and skip the extra step.
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:18 pm

Its interesting reading about value betting....I have never heard it defined before as a concept, its something that i just fell into without realising...... Many many moons ago, I was under a very decent concession rate of 2% at BF yet I still found my profits in the long term profit increasing by laying nothing. The variance of course was at first rather brutal....4 figure losing days hurt but when you see so many of them and you start to focus on the long term you become rather immune to it, to the point it didnt even register.

I had a friend who was a hardcore arber and one month he got stung with the premium rate charge as he had won so much at betfair, he contacted betfair to see if they could waiver it, there reply was along the lines of that it was incredibly rare event for this to happen, implying that arbers will always end with a very sizable negative balance in betfair....i'm not sure about you guys but speaking to others this certainly rings true
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:29 am

Even pinnacle lines could be "soft" max 500usd limit. I have had occasion when i blindly had bets soft books vs pinnacle "strong" line. And pinnacle was suprisengly "soft" line
So it needs common sense whatever you do
RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:44 pm

Good insight.
I only target the big boy leagues so I'm not caught up in that mess.
Basically if they're only taking a $500 max bet, there's a reason for that.
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luctens
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:09 pm

When SBR did an interview with Pinnacle a few years back, the trader guy said on the more obscure sports and markets they often lost money but they do these sports and markets so they offer a full product for the customer.

So Pinnacle most likely do lose money on quite a few of their low volume markets but the profit on the higher volume markets must make up for that and some. The maximum stake a bookmaker will take is a giveaway on how confident the bookmaker is on their odds, so the lower the maximum bet, the lower the confidence Pinnacle has about their odds and the more chance to win off them on those markets.
RoosterDonky
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sat Aug 20, 2016 4:14 pm

Ya those interviews are up on youtube I loved them.
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arbitrageon
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Re: Value betting guide.

Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:16 pm

Hello tell me 2 best sites for arbitrage betting? First we were arbitrage on bet365 but then they limited us. Now i arbitrage with betmaxvalue and marathonbet-pinacle combination and all is perfect. Friend tell me about betmaxvalue site with veryhigh sport odds and i asking where i can do arbitrage and cover max bet on loser on betmaxvalue?
Thanks for advices now i really see that arbitrage is best option for longterm success.
luctens
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Re: Value betting guide.

Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:00 am

arbitrageon wrote: Hello tell me 2 best sites for arbitrage betting? First we were arbitrage on bet365 but then they limited us. Now i arbitrage with betmaxvalue and marathonbet-pinacle combination and all is perfect. Friend tell me about betmaxvalue site with veryhigh sport odds and i asking where i can do arbitrage and cover max bet on loser on betmaxvalue?
Thanks for advices now i really see that arbitrage is best option for longterm success.
Your second post and guess what....it's about the great all singing all dancing betmaxvalue. ::)

The only thing I want a max bet on is that you're a shill.
Last edited by luctens on Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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