Arbusers

Hi everyone,
Its my first time betting on basketball and I was wondering how do I calculate the value on handicaps?
For example, if I have 2.1 odds for +3.5 hc and I think the true chance is 50%, is this a 5% value? Is it the same value if the handicap was +32.5 and odds were the same?
How about over/under? Is there a value if odds were 2.10 for over 125.5 and a base bookie offers 1.93(2.00 without juice)?

Thank you!

ludako wrote: For example, if I have 2.1 odds for +3.5 hc and I think the true chance is 50%, is this a 5% value? Is it the same value if the handicap was +32.5 and odds were the same?

Yes

ludako wrote: How about over/under? Is there a value if odds were 2.10 for over 125.5 and a base bookie offers 1.93(2.00 without juice)?

Yes

But consider this. Even if the base bookie is the best reference, odd 2.00 may not really be the true odds. Suppose that the bookie odds were changed from 2.15 to 1.93 due to a bet activity from a sharp bettor. 2.15 was value, but maybe 2.10 is not. So I would recommend, if possible, to look at how the odds ended up at 1.93 and from that make assumptions about value.

if we max bet on +32.5 it will go to +30.5
if we max bet on +2.5, the line will probably stay the same, only the odds will change.

then how it has the same value for both lines if we find better odds?

@ Ludako,

Excellent response from VidaBlue as usual. His opt-in in the threads in the forum is causing mental evolution for every forum member, sorry that he publishes too rarely.

Let me mention additional nuances here.

The baseline for calculating value odds should be your own, not made by the bookie or software. This will provide your current true positions at a given time (initially many of them losing and many of them winning, and one day, due to your raised experience, most of them will be dominantly winning entities) and therefore build some basis for further development. Of course, this advice is 100% valid only if you love the core of your business and have devoted all your energy to it (i.e. you play basketball now or have played it in the past). The possibilities in any case on the field can be correctly calculated if you know the sport very well or even if you study it thoroughly later until achieve some expertise. Otherwise, your probability calculations will rely on unknown factors outside of your control, as VidaBlue hinted here. The same analogy as stock trading - it's much better to know the core technology of company X in detail, instead of reading FT/WSJ and blindly following their "base" as a reference for value to your trading positions regarding that company's stocks... Additionally, that ability will save you spending thousands of bucks on redundant and unnecessary software. Buffett only uses a pen and calculator.

Additionally, bear in mind those things:
- Use very carefully the true proportions and links between MoneyLine and Point Spread, Totals, HT, FT, etc., etc.; The bookies broke them intentionally. If the value exists in ML, broken links could remove it from the wrong ATS line and vice-versa, etc, etc;
- The Math and Stats in your probability calculations SHOULD BE OFF FOR A LITTLE TIME when the coach decides/orders something different or when there are injuries, something unusual happened and so on. Later, however, these events become mathematically and statistically processed records in your model, via defined by your strategy, objects from Α to Ω, having different characteristics observed by you from α to ω, and so on. This will be so helpful in future cases on the pitch; Naturally, backtests are needed.

NBA 2017 - have you watched that classic - Cavs@Hawks? Defending NBA Champions super team Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James somehow wasted a 26-point lead. 93:67 after 3rd quarter and...125:126 AOT! The fear and the underestimating of the Cavaliers' end were obvious.

On the contrary, in the Euroleague Basketball 2023, the fifth game of Real Madrid against Partizan Belgrade in the Play-Offs, the "magical" overcoming the (-18) point difference of Real at the end of this game (no resistance from the visiting team, led by Obradović) wasn't their merit at all, and it is a shame for the game and a humiliation for the neutral fans of the game... The pre-ordered victory for Real was visible from space... But I could be wrong...

Also, the (+2.5) and (+32.5) you mentioned are very different cases and many hidden and visible factors can apply here. The eye of the beholder and only the experience of the beholder can help you avoid the pitfalls of bookies' lines in the long run. For example, what is your opinion on the impact of Sasha Vezenkov's injury in the last two matches between PAO vs. Olympiacos for the Hellenic 2023 title? Here I mean Point Spread odds.

And last but not least, study the case of Tyler Herro's injury as Spoelstra's Miami Heat contend in the 2023 NBA playoffs. With the exception of Miami's matchups against the New York Knicks, would you see any value in some matchups against the Bucks, Nuggets and Celtics in the NBA 2023 Play-Offs? Why exactly? Remember Spoelstra's ability to bounce back from the death stage... The probability of Miami's reaching the NBA 2023 final at all?

And now study Oladipo's case...