What % is it advisable to make value bets?
example:
if I find a value bet and it has a value of 2% can I lose money in the long run? Is it advisable to start from 2% 3%?
% value betting
- AlexNotman1
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Re: % value betting
If it is value bet you wont lose money long run no matter what, if its 0.5% +EV you wont lose long run BUT it may takes time you make a profit eventually. Go for at leat 3% to avoid bad runs. Odds matters a lot as well, higher odds = you will be exposed to variance which means you will earn in the end but dont be surprised experiencing few hundred/thousand bets without any profit.
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arb12
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A slightly different point of view, if I may.
Considering that the agencies are striving to make the odds against you (i.e. margin in their favor), one of the main objectives here is how to accurately calculate the true value - negative (most probable occasion), zero, or positive and the exact parameter if the EV is in a positive zone.
Although all my sympathy for the value search services (due to the clever hard working algorithms embedded within those), I personally decided to go my own way and relied on my own array of Stats and Data, and self-invented far-from-perfect-status but constantly evolving Model, processing all these carefully selected input variables.
So there are ways to pay for those services to find and calculate the exact variable EV as a percentage (given that they calculate the EV based on the agencies' business decisions, i.e. parameters published and calculated by agencies, are basically staked against you), OR not to pay them and calculate through your imperfect model the desired variables not manipulated by agencies and odds compilers.
A matter of choice.
The further objectives are risk and money management.
Risk management is a very long and interesting science, so it is impossible to write short text here.
When it comes to money management, research John Kelly as a basis for your further development and try your own approach. There are much more elegant approaches, based on Kelly.
Avoid the Full Kelly approach at any cost! That's why: lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly
The next two main threats are inside: the Kelly-based position is proportional to the exact positive value and inversely proportional to the odds.
That's why it's much better to calculate your own variables (EV and odds) than the offered and margined (against you) by someone ones.
And so on, and so forth.
Re: % value betting
A slightly different point of view, if I may.
Considering that the agencies are striving to make the odds against you (i.e. margin in their favor), one of the main objectives here is how to accurately calculate the true value - negative (most probable occasion), zero, or positive and the exact parameter if the EV is in a positive zone.
Although all my sympathy for the value search services (due to the clever hard working algorithms embedded within those), I personally decided to go my own way and relied on my own array of Stats and Data, and self-invented far-from-perfect-status but constantly evolving Model, processing all these carefully selected input variables.
So there are ways to pay for those services to find and calculate the exact variable EV as a percentage (given that they calculate the EV based on the agencies' business decisions, i.e. parameters published and calculated by agencies, are basically staked against you), OR not to pay them and calculate through your imperfect model the desired variables not manipulated by agencies and odds compilers.
A matter of choice.
The further objectives are risk and money management.
Risk management is a very long and interesting science, so it is impossible to write short text here.
When it comes to money management, research John Kelly as a basis for your further development and try your own approach. There are much more elegant approaches, based on Kelly.
Avoid the Full Kelly approach at any cost! That's why: lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly
The next two main threats are inside: the Kelly-based position is proportional to the exact positive value and inversely proportional to the odds.
That's why it's much better to calculate your own variables (EV and odds) than the offered and margined (against you) by someone ones.
And so on, and so forth.
- francesco
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
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Re: % value betting
if i knew the basics of making a statistical model, now i could study to make a statistical model. unfortunately if I don't really know where to start from I can't create the statistical model. no one here writes at least the basics on how to start creating it, we see that the information is really secretarb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2023 5:29 am
A slightly different point of view, if I may.
Considering that the agencies are striving to make the odds against you (i.e. margin in their favor), one of the main objectives here is how to accurately calculate the true value - negative (most probable occasion), zero, or positive and the exact parameter if the EV is in a positive zone.
Although all my sympathy for the value search services (due to the clever hard working algorithms embedded within those), I personally decided to go my own way and relied on my own array of Stats and Data, and self-invented far-from-perfect-status but constantly evolving Model, processing all these carefully selected input variables.
So there are ways to pay for those services to find and calculate the exact variable EV as a percentage (given that they calculate the EV based on the agencies' business decisions, i.e. parameters published and calculated by agencies, are basically staked against you), OR not to pay them and calculate through your imperfect model the desired variables not manipulated by agencies and odds compilers.
A matter of choice.
The further objectives are risk and money management.
Risk management is a very long and interesting science, so it is impossible to write short text here.
When it comes to money management, research John Kelly as a basis for your further development and try your own approach. There are much more elegant approaches, based on Kelly.
Avoid the Full Kelly approach at any cost! That's why: lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly
The next two main threats are inside: the Kelly-based position is proportional to the exact positive value and inversely proportional to the odds.
That's why it's much better to calculate your own variables (EV and odds) than the offered and margined (against you) by someone ones.
And so on, and so forth.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
statisticshowto.com would be a good entrance to the theory, and when you read that resource, later you could build your own model. The bookies make the same while compiling their odds.
Re: % value betting
francesco wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 6:12 pmif i knew the basics of making a statistical model, now i could study to make a statistical model. unfortunately if I don't really know where to start from I can't create the statistical model. no one here writes at least the basics on how to start creating it, we see that the information is really secret
statisticshowto.com would be a good entrance to the theory, and when you read that resource, later you could build your own model. The bookies make the same while compiling their odds.
- francesco
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Re: % value betting
tonight I read the site a bit and I already have an idea of how to create a statistical model. can i send you a private message?arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 11:00 pmfrancesco wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2023 6:12 pmif i knew the basics of making a statistical model, now i could study to make a statistical model. unfortunately if I don't really know where to start from I can't create the statistical model. no one here writes at least the basics on how to start creating it, we see that the information is really secret
statisticshowto.com would be a good entrance to the theory, and when you read that resource, later you could build your own model. The bookies make the same while compiling their odds.
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