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What about hedging?

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What about hedging?

Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Ok, I am pretty sure that many of you have thought of what I am about to say, but I wonder if anyone has actually tried to do it.

I think that when you arb there is a certain fact, in the long run (lets say 3-4 months of arbing) the most of the money will end up in the normal bookies' side, and not in the basebooks.  That's epxected to happen, since the value bets are always the ones found in the normal bookies.

Since we accept the thing mentioned above...
What I 've been thinking, is whether it's worth giving a try to hedge the bet on the basebook's side. By that I mean that I 'll be betting in a way, that in case my bet is won in the basebook, I 'll have a zero profit, but if my bet is won in the normal bookie (the value bet) my profit will be double (compared with the profit I 'd have in case I arbed normally).

What do you guys think ? Has anyone tried it and if yes could he give the results he had?

I am all ears for your opinion, experienced arbers  :)

p.s. : Some will say, why even bother hedging the bet at the basebook, just bet only the value bet. I guess that argument has also a basis, but then again, it's the risk you are willing to take...
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Re: What about hedging?

Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:31 pm

I think many people do it that way. I mostly put the stakes so that I get 80-90 % win on the bookmaker side, but only because I dont like it to place an arb and have one side with zero profit. :D So I would recommend it to everybody.

You need to have in mind that every normal bookie will limit you, sooner or later. So to get the maximum out of it you should always make sure you get the most profit on the normal bookie side, in my opinion. When the bet at basebook wins, you make no or less profit, but you will probably not be limited so fast at the normal bookie.

When I register with a new bookie with hard terms and conditions I always "underlay" my bet. For example I get a 50% up to 200€ bonus. I search a good match and place 600€ bet at the bookie. I lay so that I lose for example 50€ when the bet at exchange wins, but I win 80€ more when the bet at the bookie wins. It always depends on the bookie and situation, but when I think the bookie is a bit risky I will be happy to bust out in one bet and get 150€ of the bonus instead of having to bet through rollover and maybe have a couple of thousands stuck in that risky book.

Regarding only placing the value bets, I dont have enough balls. ;D I think you would probably make more money in the long run, as you save the commission and juice from basebooks, but on the other side how do you know that the bet on normal bookie side is always value?

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