Arbusers

I'm from Portugal
Because I've already do Value betting and I didn't like the variance (Although I made a profit)
I'm not a roller coaster, Nikos

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:13 pm

I mention all the softwares - BetAngel, GeeksToy, there is also Gruss, FairBot, and others. I am simply sharing what I believe to be a useful information. I am not selling anything. I dont even use them because I dont have access to the real Betfair anymore and I have no choice but to use agents/brokers... I can only hope one day they make it possible to use these software on Orbit, Piwi and the other exchanges. I guess I should keep quiet from now on, sorry to bother you with my posts.

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:13 pm

... I guess I should keep quiet from now on, sorry to bother you with my posts.

Dear Ms Angelova,
Please, don't move into radio-silence mode.

I assure you that here in this wonderful forum there are users who are willing to contribute and willing to share and accept any different opinion and discuss it in a constructive manner, aiming for further development for all users. Those existent constructive users, sharing and exchanging various opinions are de facto the real core of the Arbusers community, they are neither passive-aggressive heroes nor nihilists (but they are not as vocal in the Forum as some hidden manipulators.)

Those genuine users are driven by the passion for sport and the wisdom of the business. They enjoy communicating and sharing various useful ideas. They'll never ask someone to jeopardize her/his own business in various ways via various manipulations, so:
- They'll never ask someone to share details of her/his own methodology, invented through hard work after thousands of working hours.
- They'll never insist that anyone publish bet slips, statements and other documents, also exact market positions, exact "predictions", triggered by her/his model and similar, and they generally won't insist that you should provide your "evidence".
- They'll never urge for personal data, including financial status, profits achieved, and many more data and similar.
- They'll neither indirectly attack anyone's personality (via hidden disrespect etc) nor attempt to harm the psychological state of any forum user in any "hidden" manipulative way.
- And so on, and so forth.

That kind of forum users value all the Knowledge, hidden in the topics and various Authors. Those Authors hinted at various ideas in a semi-hidden way. That's the only way that these Authors make it possible for some ideas and observations to be shared to some extent, while at the same time, the Authors protect their own intellectual products and techniques from being jeopardized. That's the only way those Authors treat other respected members of this wonderful community not as foes in the business, but as Colleagues. I'm pretty sure, that many clever members are more than benefitted from the rare sparkling ignitions, provided by Prometheus. In other words, the paradox is that partial openness on some sensitive topics makes the Forum's existence possible in that intelligent status. But the real respect between some different Authors, spotted in that Forum is a necessary and existing basis here. That's why, here on that website, the Owner provides us with a high level of Forum ethics. Unlike some other internet resources, which have de facto become a mixture of Tik-Tok-similar madness, everyday quarrels/ego-mania metering between users and advertisements of famous fraudulent bookies from the most famous constellation of crooks - that's everything but helpful info. Naturally, if you post on topics along with some negative types of characters, you'll benefit from endless observation, preparing for your Ph.D. in psychology or something else.

Dear Ms Angelova,
There are existing users who appreciate the goodwill, willingness to help and friendliness of your postings. That's visible from space.
You'll probably be surprised, but the potential of versatility and the density of the transmitted info in your postings, in Claude Shannon-similar style (fully opposed to the Tik-Tok-like style), is impressive.
You could also post opinions in your own-created threads if you want.

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:13 pm

...
I dont have access to the real Betfair anymore and I have no choice but to use agents/brokers...

Is it a problem or a blessing? If you are a system trader, having access to the original exchange could hypothetically sooner or later make you consider fees as a Premium Charge of 20%, and what do you think about the funny 60% nonsense called Super Premium Charge? On the other hand, some of their white labels have added liquidity (not OK), lower commissions, with the absence of those ridiculous 20 and 60% fees, but the hidden cost of all this? Is a potential shutdown possible for you in terms of heavy profit or it depends on the agent?
And additionally, does the equation (Betfair odds minus commissions are very similar to Pinnacle odds) hold for some markets or not exactly? But a large number of markets are missing from Pinny, and the liquidity offered…

TjTaker wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 14, 2023 12:34 pm

It's a real shame how much power bookmakers have and how much they make our lives difficult (And getting away with it)
Transforming our industry and those who depend on it working on a drip

Let's face tough reality. The UK is still a leading country when it comes to betting. Bookmakers managed to storm all governments these last years, and they dictate everything according to their needs. Have a look at the last white paper. Looks like being drafted in a Bet365 office.

I read all the gambling act in the uk
The affordability checks are so bad that it becames comical
125£ in a month and 500£ in a year
I just need 2 seconds to wager that
With more detailed credit-check-like measures for those spending 1,000£ a day
A survey conducted by European Gambling concludes that:
From 1007 bettors, they found that 21.8% of bettors had already been asked for documents by at least one bookmaker
Of these, 74.3% had provided them, but 17.9% had refused and started playing with a different licensed operator instead
Of the remainder, 4.1% refused and moved to an unlicensed operator, while 3.7% stopped betting entirely
Of the 78.2% of punters who had not yet faced affordability checks, 37.3% said they would refuse and simply stop betting, 35.0% said they would move to a different licensed operator and 4.1% said they’d go to an unlicensed company
Only 23.5% indicated they would be willing to provide the documents

arb12 wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:45 am

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:13 pm

...
I dont have access to the real Betfair anymore and I have no choice but to use agents/brokers...

Is it a problem or a blessing? If you are a system trader, having access to the original exchange could hypothetically sooner or later make you consider fees as a Premium Charge of 20%, and what do you think about the funny 60% nonsense called Super Premium Charge? On the other hand, some of their white labels have added liquidity (not OK), lower commissions, with the absence of those ridiculous 20 and 60% fees, but the hidden cost of all this? Is a potential shutdown possible for you in terms of heavy profit or it depends on the agent?
And additionally, does the equation (Betfair odds minus commissions are very similar to Pinnacle odds) hold for some markets or not exactly? But a large number of markets are missing from Pinny, and the liquidity offered…

For me probably is not a huge difference when it comes to placing the bets... although I miss GeeksToy (it was my favorite software), because it was so simple and quick and you can see the whole market in the ladder mode. But for many users speed can be crucial and this kind of software gives you an edge in certain situations. And by the way, you cant always make a bet on Pinnacle and lay it on Betfair, I mean you can but the profit will be less because on the exchange you make money for every single tick that goes in your direction. For example if you bet 2.40 on Betfair is not the same as backing 2.32 on Pinnacle (you lose 4 ticks by taking this price) , because if you trade out for example on 2.10 in the first case you win $138 with 3% commission (with a bet of $1000) and in the second case you win $105 without commission for Pinnacle, of course. So in other word trading just isnt as profitable with a bookmaker. But a lot of markets are actually quite close, I often Back early odds with Pinnacle when I believe they are wrong and they I Lay it at the exchange before kick-off. You said there is Super Premium 60% commission.. I never heard about this, it sounds crazy. 20% I would be ok to pay for top quality service, I would still be satisfied with the profit I make for me... but 60% is insane. What did you mean by a potential shutdown? I dont think I understood the question. (And thanks for the kind words.)

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:03 pm

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 4:29 pm

my info shows no significant changes in the liquidity on betfair for football (I dont know about horses), so the exchanges are not dead, especially Betfair. Actually I am surprised by the liquidity for some South American leagues and a lot of MLS games too. European leagues always have more than enough liquidity for any strategy to work. You must be a really big player if the exchanges cant handle your bets

I recall some CL games 10 years ago with volumes of 120.000.000 euros. Now these volumes are down to 4-5 Mn, but again, as you say this is more than enough to float and hide whenever needed.

its possible... maybe in the final stages of the tournament. The World Cup always have huge volumes, especially the semi finals and the final, but I doubt there was ever a similar amount matched on a game from the Premier League or La Liga for example. But as you said, the liquidity is more than enough to make a good profit if you have an edge... you probably wont become rich and buy a private jet, its more like a job with a normal or above average wage (depends on your bankroll, edge etc.).

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:59 pm

For me probably is not a huge difference when it comes to placing the bets... although I miss GeeksToy (it was my favorite software), because it was so simple and quick and you can see the whole market in the ladder mode. But for many users speed can be crucial and this kind of software gives you an edge in certain situations. And by the way, you cant always make a bet on Pinnacle and lay it on Betfair, I mean you can but the profit will be less because on the exchange you make money for every single tick that goes in your direction. For example if you bet 2.40 on Betfair is not the same as backing 2.32 on Pinnacle (you lose 4 ticks by taking this price) , because if you trade out for example on 2.10 in the first case you win $138 with 3% commission (with a bet of $1000) and in the second case you win $105 without commission for Pinnacle, of course. So in other word trading just isnt as profitable with a bookmaker. But a lot of markets are actually quite close, I often Back early odds with Pinnacle when I believe they are wrong and they I Lay it at the exchange before kick-off. You said there is Super Premium 60% commission.. I never heard about this, it sounds crazy. 20% I would be ok to pay for top quality service, I would still be satisfied with the profit I make for me... but 60% is insane. What did you mean by a potential shutdown? I dont think I understood the question. (And thanks for the kind words.)

I remember the Terms & Conditions published by Betfair in the early years before they expanded (before the collaboration with Paddy Power, PokerStars, TVG, FanDuel, Flutter and so forth and so forth).
Briefly, their older Terms&Conditions were as follows: If you reside in the UK, you compete with other UK users on the Exchange, but if you reside outside the UK, you compete with TheSportingExchange Limited, Gibraltar (a subsidiary of Betfair). If I'm wrong in my recollection, let the Administrator of the Forum Mr. Arbusers correct that.
In other words, 15-20 years earlier, UK players seemed to have tapped into the real idea of the founders of the exchange, but all other users across the world de facto were competing against Betfair itself, so the exchange for them is an imitation at some extent, controlled by Betfair, as mentioned in the older version of the T&C in an indirect way.

When a critical mass of players became profitable, around the 2010s, they introduced the funny Premium Charge to partially cover the loss of their own liquidity entered into the exchange as a massive counterparty to bets, especially in Horse Racing markets. On one hand, they immediately collect some percent of the winning bets during the settlement and later collect an additional Premium charge.

I've remembered some suspicious insider trading tricks practiced by own Betfair traders/bots, for example, some accepted bets at a price set by them and sold to you at prices set by them, no matter your positions in the "ladder view" of the waiting positions. In other words, they traded in-house in a hidden way some positions before publishing them again for you.

Later, around the era of Flutter, PokerStars, TVG & FanDuel, they became shady and many winning players' funds were confiscated like never before. The introduction of a 60% Super Premium is a clear sign that they fund their own liquidity in some "exchange" markets and want to co-own your business if you are not closed and confiscated by them for playing in "suspect" markets.
For example, If you play via your own Statistics methods and spot very wrong prices on the first and second Hellenic Tier (i.e. the Almopos Arideas, Panserraikos, Volos, PAO, PAOK &Aris Thessaloniki, Makedonikos Neapolis teams and so on) and become profitable, they could stop you if they want. But they're not shady as the Orbit is.
That's only an example, you could substitute the mentioned teams for some teams in Brasileiro Série B, Slavia Sofia, Sesvete, Milton Keynes Dons, some Vietnamese soccer teams and so on. In other words, beware!

A very important statement here: I only mean legitimate play, a value determined by Statistics through the Probability Theory, neither any shady play, nor fund passing! I practiced some sports as an amateur in the past and hate the unfair game! In addition, Statistics and Data can greatly indicate some potential irregularities, so that you don't enter the suspicious markets at all! The trained eyes of the beholder...

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:59 pm

...
And by the way, you cant always make a bet on Pinnacle and lay it on Betfair, I mean you can but the profit will be less because on the exchange you make money for every single tick that goes in your direction. For example if you bet 2.40 on Betfair is not the same as backing 2.32 on Pinnacle (you lose 4 ticks by taking this price) , because if you trade out for example on 2.10 in the first case you win $138 with 3% commission (with a bet of $1000) and in the second case you win $105 without commission for Pinnacle, of course. So in other word trading just isnt as profitable with a bookmaker. But a lot of markets are actually quite close, I often Back early odds with Pinnacle when I believe they are wrong and they I Lay it at the exchange before kick-off.
...

When it comes to high-frequency trading, picking up visible from space mispricings and trading them with short and medium-term probability in mind in the trading activity, ready to put the monstrous trade and repetitive hard work, continuously adding the constant advantages in your trading in the long-term, you're absolutely right! Here the Exchange is irreplaceable, no matter the percentage of Charge by them in the settlement. But they could stop you at some stage of your journey for no argument as an end participant and counterparty of your positions. At that point, neither the FCA nor the IBAS & UKGC will help you. Hope I'm wrong here...
I read that Peter Jackson may review some decisions of the Escalation Department, but isn't that a crisis PR on the Betfair end?
Remember the blocking market positions & players' funds of some markets circa 2019 (Soccer, Champions League, Europe?) and the disappearance of the Lay positions of the Horse markets at that time.
Isn't that evidence that they use their own funds in the horse races and other market positions as a counterparty?

Aneliya Angelova wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:59 pm

...
What did you mean by a potential shutdown? I dont think I understood the question. (And thanks for the kind words.)

When some Betfair white labels are risking their own funds, taking positions against you and adding their own liquidity to Betfair's one, that isn't a good sign at all if you're a long-term profitable system trader... Hope I'm wrong here...

Imagine the case when in the Forex there are Pool A and Pool B for the players...

Hope the Owner of the Forum, having a very great experience will comment here on all the cases that I describe in my last postings.
Thanks in advance.

Various types of licenses were (maybe still?) allowing Betfair to act in various ways, some of which are not disclosed. We can only make various hypothesis here but maybe it is valid to say they interfered one way or another among the players who were betting against other players.

I can't prove it, but it is hard for me to believe that Betfair added any liquidity to any market from its own pocket. I know Smarkets did that for years.

Premium Charges manifested their greed and their bad management mentality who was(is) ready to kill the hen with the golden eggs in exchange for some good balance sheets for a year or so. But what happened after that year?

As for white labels like Orbit, 9wickets etc, this is a completely different story.

Thank you for your opinion, Mr Arbusers.
Years ago (perhaps circa 2017 or so) I read on Betfair's own blog a statement by a senior Betfair official that they would guarantee a minimum of £500,000 or so in terms of liquidity guaranteed for a UK race, if I'm not mistaken.
Then I realized what that meant and partially withdrew from the horse markets.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 19, 2023 4:25 pm

Thank you for your opinion, Mr Arbusers.
Years ago (perhaps circa 2017 or so) I read on Betfair's own blog a statement by a senior Betfair official that they would guarantee a minimum of £500,000 or so in terms of liquidity guaranteed for a UK race, if I'm not mistaken.
Then I realized what that meant and partially withdrew from the horse markets.

You can never be sure what that statement might be. Betfair receives volumes from bookmakers, agents and other exchanges.

GNMbg wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:49 pm

Trevorr wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:14 pm

Just a thought. When I started betting 20 years ago, I earned more than ten times the average salary in my country, and now I don't even earn an average salary. Fortunately, I have some investments that bring me money.

what is the reason? the markets are too small for your bets ? or they are too sharp for the strategies now? Are you arbitrage betting or what?

It's a completely different environment. Over time, everything changed. Competition between betting companies and work with odds, verification, legislation, taxes, deposit methods.....

Surely there will always be new ways. But Betfair is simply a different game. you are among the sharks. You have to learn a lot of new things and maybe it's just not worth the effort and you can do a "normal" business.

Trevorr wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:09 pm

GNMbg wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:49 pm

Trevorr wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:14 pm

Just a thought. When I started betting 20 years ago, I earned more than ten times the average salary in my country, and now I don't even earn an average salary. Fortunately, I have some investments that bring me money.

what is the reason? the markets are too small for your bets ? or they are too sharp for the strategies now? Are you arbitrage betting or what?

It's a completely different environment. Over time, everything changed. Competition between betting companies and work with odds, verification, legislation, taxes, deposit methods.....

Surely there will always be new ways. But Betfair is simply a different game. you are among the sharks. You have to learn a lot of new things and maybe it's just not worth the effort and you can do a "normal" business.

yeah Betfair is not for everyone. Many people wont be willing to put in the work and if you are actually able to make good money doing something else, its probably not worth it as you said. For me its the only things I want to do long term. I took me thousands of hours to get where I am now and I am still learning new things... The most dangerous thing in this business is to believe you know everything.