Winning Betfair Strategy
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arbusers
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Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
The previous post is modified to protect the forum and the poster.
- ex-hft
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What about betting on other exchanges where there are no premium charges? Is that not an option?
Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
Thanks for the explanation - I never considered this!Miguel wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 11:34 amCharges of winning, 20%,40%
Betfair is mafia camuflated.
What I mean loosing is loosing on one account big winner to another or to bookies,
...
but thats a short term solution, I have been doing that and bf is closing in a lot of countries year to year, its hard to get , what I do is arbs without profit, there is a lot of super fav on bookies in my country where the odds are equal to betfair like 1.4 odd on bookie and 1.4 or 1.39 on bf, laying bf, hoping fav wins, the bookies here you can bet 5000 to 7000€ on that matches stake each bookie, if fav wins you loose 5000 for example in one match betting 10k or something on bookies, but that thing only helps one week or more, the most luck I had it was 2 months , even if you loose one bet and win 10k on bf you can try all week until sunday to loose that…but soon or later it happened to me every time, there is one week super favs loose the games like 3 matches or 4, and that account bf is busted, next week the charge is thousands because that 15k winnings are not profit, but to bf is.
Betting in all outcome is not a solution , even assuming the loss of comissions on bf when you win the bet, the propose is loosing the thousands every week, it needs to be lost in a 7 days period, you can make 10 bets or 50, but in 7 days period I need to loose the money won on trading or break even .
Other solution friends of mine tries to do with issues is betting a lot on a 7 days period on a even odd event like lines on basket etc, to generate comissions or using lot of arbs with small stakes to loose and win to increase the comissions, because we traders… loose just a few races and small losses, like 20 races you loose 3 or 4 and what you loose you profit on 2 or 3 races, so the comission generated is under 5% of the week winnings, bf every Wednesday charge plus15% of the thousands eur winnings for that week, and if you keep betting that account of a period of months, bf increases the charge to 40%.
Even 15% extra every week is many salaries on my country.
The question remains the same…how to loose money when you grow the account a couple thousands every single week and you have only 7 period day of variance to end up loosing.
The loosers beed luck to win and the winners needs luck to loose big lol
Sorry for this, i know the shady ways of doing, but thats not a long term solution too,
The odds are fair or close to it, maybe backing horses or correct score on odds above 10…maybe the account lasts long but I doubt, never tried high odds to achieve losses, but I’m scared if an odd 15 or 20 hits on the first 5 or 10 bets, lots of trouble if hits and you only have couple days to loose that
What about betting on other exchanges where there are no premium charges? Is that not an option?
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arbusers
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- Miguel
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Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
Live trading on horses you need liquidity, only bf has it, the others like betfaq just have pre race liquidity, I was a pre race trader many years ago when peter webb and jimmakos came famous, I did well on that but the bankroll to make the same I do live racing is huge, and nowadays you have lots of risks having big bankroll if not original, I know some of the biggest traders personally on soccer here, and you don’t imagine the troubles they have almost every 2 months, and they are original if you know what I mean, even that bf every couple of months asks them for documents and proof of money, they have even a personal vip manager from bf to talk fast and easy with them, but bf systems suspend their accounts very frequently because the amounts in play and bankrolls 100k+, they cannot escape to the charges because the bankroll needed, what they do is that kind of lots of bets on even odds or close to that to generate comissions with small bets, but thats a lot of work and just reduce a little what they have to pay.
In the case of live racing you don’t need that bankrolls because there is no liquidity to trade with thousands eur of stake lol, if market goes against because the horse stop speeding, good luck on hedge 50% loss of 2k stake , you don’t have a chance, market drifts in seconds.
Betdaq etc for live racing is a waste of time.
Even bf 3 or 4 years ago you had 500k liquidity every race almost, now is like 200k exception of festivals…but in live market you have decent stakes moving around, its possible to make good profit yet, the issue is bf wants more than 3 to 5% of your winnings
In the case of live racing you don’t need that bankrolls because there is no liquidity to trade with thousands eur of stake lol, if market goes against because the horse stop speeding, good luck on hedge 50% loss of 2k stake , you don’t have a chance, market drifts in seconds.
Betdaq etc for live racing is a waste of time.
Even bf 3 or 4 years ago you had 500k liquidity every race almost, now is like 200k exception of festivals…but in live market you have decent stakes moving around, its possible to make good profit yet, the issue is bf wants more than 3 to 5% of your winnings
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arb12
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Let me introduce some side thoughts here, outside the context of the trading process.
Absolutely every odds compiler uses Math calculations, but after the odds calculation stacks the real odds against you through margin.
The real issues here for individuals (not for agencies) are many, for example, the reliability of the Statistical data fed into the Math algorithm, and the fine settings of the data processing.
The primary initial task is to calculate (or to know) the real odds vs the offered at any moment, that's the main tool at your disposal, guaranteeing you not entering the wrong market. Here at that stage Math is irreplaceable in my opinion and the positive expected value is determined that way.
From that moment on, the next usual everyday tasks are in effect for the individual market investor, such as risk/money management for longevity of market presence and stable earnings, etc.
Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
Let me introduce some side thoughts here, outside the context of the trading process.
Absolutely every odds compiler uses Math calculations, but after the odds calculation stacks the real odds against you through margin.
The real issues here for individuals (not for agencies) are many, for example, the reliability of the Statistical data fed into the Math algorithm, and the fine settings of the data processing.
The primary initial task is to calculate (or to know) the real odds vs the offered at any moment, that's the main tool at your disposal, guaranteeing you not entering the wrong market. Here at that stage Math is irreplaceable in my opinion and the positive expected value is determined that way.
From that moment on, the next usual everyday tasks are in effect for the individual market investor, such as risk/money management for longevity of market presence and stable earnings, etc.
- Miguel
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Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
From what I know, in live yes there is big margin between odds offered and what is the fair odd, that’s what every live trader do in any sport, but pre market before off the odds even with math stastistics, the error is small, in a 7 days window to make all the bets to end the week losing the money won on trading is luck…the best I could do was betting on heavy fav, but when the bad luck arrives, lots o super favs loose the game and I have the account full of money to be charged and that thousands of eur are not profit.the 7 days window is short
Thanks anyways,
Thanks anyways,
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arb12
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Hiya again Miguel,
I advise you to consider well-thought stop-loss points to mitigate what you call "bad luck". I think hedging current negative positions at some point can actually be a good decision for the account. Proper money management (for example, Kelly-based) is an account savior.
In Probability Theory, there is no such thing as "bad luck", absolutely every outcome is possible, and therefore an accurate calculation of the probability (if high accuracy is possible to some extent) for each outcome is very important. Statistical variance can look like this "bad luck". Additionally, the combination of the Stats variance relative to your market position plus the inappropriately accepted market odds (negative Expected Value according to the Math) can kill your account. In addition, the worst odds in terms of accumulated agencies' margin are those offered in favor of the heavy Favorite, so it's not often that the heavy Favorite has offered + EV odds if you calculate that.
The perfect recent example here in terms of negative EV for the heavy Favorite's offered odds would be the Internazionale vs. Sassuolo Calcio 1:2 match played on September 27th.
Both in terms of the Stats variance and the absurdly large negative EV of the heavy Favorite's odds, see almost the whole season of PSG 2022/2023 under Christophe Galtier's management.
And one of my most interesting projects is based only on the season of Chelsea 2022/2023. About one billion total investment, chaotic results throughout the season...
Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
Hiya again Miguel,
I advise you to consider well-thought stop-loss points to mitigate what you call "bad luck". I think hedging current negative positions at some point can actually be a good decision for the account. Proper money management (for example, Kelly-based) is an account savior.
In Probability Theory, there is no such thing as "bad luck", absolutely every outcome is possible, and therefore an accurate calculation of the probability (if high accuracy is possible to some extent) for each outcome is very important. Statistical variance can look like this "bad luck". Additionally, the combination of the Stats variance relative to your market position plus the inappropriately accepted market odds (negative Expected Value according to the Math) can kill your account. In addition, the worst odds in terms of accumulated agencies' margin are those offered in favor of the heavy Favorite, so it's not often that the heavy Favorite has offered + EV odds if you calculate that.
The perfect recent example here in terms of negative EV for the heavy Favorite's offered odds would be the Internazionale vs. Sassuolo Calcio 1:2 match played on September 27th.
Both in terms of the Stats variance and the absurdly large negative EV of the heavy Favorite's odds, see almost the whole season of PSG 2022/2023 under Christophe Galtier's management.
And one of my most interesting projects is based only on the season of Chelsea 2022/2023. About one billion total investment, chaotic results throughout the season...
- Miguel
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Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
I understand that, most bookies on my country offer heavy fav odds equal to bf or better, but on draw and underdog they cut a lot, like bf has odd 3.7 and bookie has 2,8 or worst, because majority bets on heavy fav, they are generous on fav side.
good point of making hedging positions when market goes against me, locking loss, sometimes of that matches I’m in… fav was winning in some point of the game but I didn,t hedge and on the final the fav looses.
The issue here is time, one week to end loosing , even today I have tried to loose the money won this day….guess what lol I ended up winning more on the account, odds 5 to 10 hits a lot, I cleared 3 stakes…until the next one odds 5.4 hits…back to point zero.
good point of making hedging positions when market goes against me, locking loss, sometimes of that matches I’m in… fav was winning in some point of the game but I didn,t hedge and on the final the fav looses.
The issue here is time, one week to end loosing , even today I have tried to loose the money won this day….guess what lol I ended up winning more on the account, odds 5 to 10 hits a lot, I cleared 3 stakes…until the next one odds 5.4 hits…back to point zero.
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arb12
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Imagine how extremely helpful it will be for us if he writes some thoughts here on the Forum someday.
Re: Winning Betfair Strategy
Any news on Jim Makos?
Imagine how extremely helpful it will be for us if he writes some thoughts here on the Forum someday.
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