Arbusers

guys, you know bitcoin is not an solely investment, right?
please watch andreas antonopoulos, and you'll learn more about bitcoin.

bitcoin is a revolution, it's the redpill against coming cbdcs and slavery.
bitcoin is freedom. dont see it as an investment only.

always keep some btc in corner for future.

governments print money like crazy.
bitcoin is the exit from system

We have some developments with Bitcoin’s price action that I would like to discuss.
At this stage I selected EWT as my best tool to interpret the market. Have a look at the graph, before keep reading.


Since we are in a bull market, any correction should have an ABC style. The A wave has a length of 10500. The B wave made a push upwards breaking confidently the 50% level of the A wave. The next level to watch is the 61.8% which stands at approximately $45000. We then have the 78.6% level at $46770, but this is not the most preferable according to theory, because the 61.8% level is stronger and most visited compared to the 50% of 78.6% levels. A visit in the 61.8% level opens the possibility of a flat correction, meaning that wave C could very well end at the same price like wave A. This is $38500.

However, we now have to think of other alternative scenarios according to EWT and I will present them according to the possibilities of becoming true.
1. Wave C is equal to wave A, bringing the price at $34500.
2. Wave C is 1.618 of wave A, bringing the price at $28000.
3. Wave C is any other Fibonacci analogy of wave A, which creates a bigger number of alternatives bellow $28000.

And what if all of my hypothesis about the ending diagonal is wrong? What if the price keeps moving above the recent local top of $49000? That will tell me that the trend is in a terrible hurry and it will question my overall theory about the October 2025 top. If this is the case, the top will come much sooner and I will have to rethink about the overall situation in the market. Probably the SP500 scenario will need a revisit as well. Again, there is nothing wrong taking some profits to the bank.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Thanks for the update.

With those scenarios you present, do you still keep your 80% of your overall Bitcoin investment in the market right now? Why not sell some more, when a correction is expected?

Lumberjack wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:18 am

Thanks for the update.

With those scenarios you present, do you still keep your 80% of your overall Bitcoin investment in the market right now? Why not sell some more, when a correction is expected?

Yes, I announce my buys/sells here.
This is risk assessment. There is always the possibility of being wrong, and in this particular case If I am wrong and the market keeps running upwards I would have missed a big opportunity.

guys, you just buy and hodl bitcoin, that's it.
what if all 4-year cycles change?
what if usa president declares they tied dollar to bitcoin and we switched to bitcoin standard?

read some about bitcoin, watch andreas antonopoulos. he has a great insight and knowledge about bitcoin

current fiat system is a ponzi and not sustainable.

bitcoin will be so much valuable in future, it's so precious, dont take risk to buy 3-4k lower. just buy and hodl.
in future, it wont matter if you had bought bitcoin at 44 or 39.

let me share you an andreas video about bitcoin with you.
here you go
enjoy!

What do you think about the ETH/BTC price?
It's approaching fast 0.05 level which haven't broked to the downside last 3 years!!
To me seems lucrative !

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:59 pm

What do you think about the ETH/BTC price?
It's approaching fast 0.05 level which haven't broked to the downside last 3 years!!
To me seems lucrative !

ethereum became a centralized shitcoin after switching to proof of stake consensus system, sacrificing decentralization. it lost the magic. even an etf would be more disastrous for eth. if you're an ethereum investor, you better pray for etf to get rejected. there's a good chance it will be rejected btw.

ethereum is bleeding against bitcoin since merge!

remember guys,
there's bitcoin and there's shitcoins.

@ arbusers thanks for the analysis as always.

As you mentioned the correction must have an ABC form. I am not an expert in EWT but I notice this:

Can the momentum in a corrective wave be so strong to push the RSI above the resistance? It seems it broke out.

Therefore can we assume we are in a wave 5?

Sonny wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 09, 2024 7:07 pm

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:59 pm

What do you think about the ETH/BTC price?
It's approaching fast 0.05 level which haven't broked to the downside last 3 years!!
To me seems lucrative !

ethereum became a centralized shitcoin after switching to proof of stake consensus system, sacrificing decentralization. it lost the magic. even an etf would be more disastrous for eth. if you're an ethereum investor, you better pray for etf to get rejected. there's a good chance it will be rejected btw.

ethereum is bleeding against bitcoin since merge!

remember guys,
there's bitcoin and there's shitcoins.

I am not sure about this!
I am not by any mean a maximalist not a BTC one , nor ETH.
having said that i agree with you that 99% of coins will fail in the longterm and in this respect i understand the term "shitcoin" however i strongly disagree that ETH can be fell in this category.
I close my argument here since it's not relevant to the subject of this thread

I will be very much surprised if BTC keeps running upwards from here. Of course, I will welcome any push-ups as it will add to my profits, but for now the odds are for a strong pull back.


Why do I say this?
1. After yesterday's weekly candle, we now have a negative divergence on the weekly time frame too. Of course, negative divergences could go on for long, but in the end they revert to the mean.
2. We have a very strong resistance line coming from 2021, and we now met it for the 2nd time. The previous resistant line we broke was at $32000 and this battle took for BTC 6+months to win. The $48.000 resistance is stronger, and I really don't see any reason why it could prove fake. Quite the contrary.
3. I am noticing similar patterns in sh.tcoins accompanied by the usual pump and dump who.es.

It seems to me the ETF announcement was anticipated as a sell the news event by many, as it became obvious, and probably sellers weren't that quick, and they didn't achieve their desired selling price at once. If price keeps running upwards from here, I will have to count the speed, and see if my overall scenario for an October 2025 top is still valid. Maybe the market is trying to tell me something else.

And of course, not a financial advice, do your own DD.

It is now time that you accept being wrong for selling 20% of your portfolio!

Only someone who is not convinced in his hands and has a very high AVG price could be wrong for selling 20 or 30%.

balls of steele wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:06 am

It is now time that you accept being wrong for selling 20% of your portfolio!

You miss the big picture once again.

As many others who read this thread, we got on at 20k and even 15k and we are very greatfull for 200%-300% gain on our capital.

We can still gain if btc rises more and doubt anyone regretted selling 20% of his holdings for 300% gains.

balls of steele wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 14, 2024 11:06 am

It is now time that you accept being wrong for selling 20% of your portfolio!

Thank you for providing this opportunity. It is time consuming and costly for me but I will pick up the gauntlet!

If I am right or wrong in my decision making depends largely on the angle that you see things. So there are 2 angles here that I will examine and both of them are correct:

1st. I sold this 20% of my BTC portfolio with a positive performance of approximately 150%. In any investment office anything above 30% is a reason for lavish bonuses to be paid and champagne to run like a river. Many offices organise orgies with call girls (and call boys to be politically correct). So in that angle, I am correct.

2nd. A 150% performance might be humble if the overall performance in retrospect appears to be something much bigger than that. As I am typing the lines, the performance of the BTC market is 170% and for sure keeping that part of my portfolio would add more profits. So in that angle you too are correct.

But now, allow me once again to educate you with some Greek history. Guys, I know I am breaking your balls, but someone has to break them if they are not already broken from school.

Croesus was the first ''richest man in the world'' documented in History. This habit of finding the richest man in the world, stopped for 2500 years, and came back again in modern times with Aristotle Onassis.

Croesus was once visited by the ancient Athenian philosopher Solon. With the conceit of the East, Croesus asked Solon who was the happiest person in the world. Solon spoke about 3 Athenians who were already dead, but they died in happiness. Of course, Croesus’ pettiness was not able to catch the meaning of Solon’s words. Before leaving Solon told Croesus to ''call no man happy till he dies''. In English, today, they say ''It aint over till its over'' and in the markets they say that ''it ain't over until the fat lady sings''.


Many years later Croesus was attacked by Cyrus the Great, another barbarian King of the East. Cyrus was so Great that he decided to burn alive Croesus. When the fire was lit, and moments before his death Croesus shouted ''Solon, you true seer! Solon, Solon!'' Cyrus was curious enough to know what his slave was calling for and decided to spare his life. Croesus described his meeting with Solon, and Cyrus the Great understood the meaning and spared his life, keeping him as an advisor.

This history tells us to never judge anything before you see the endgame.

None of the investing disciplines comes with certainty. No rational man, ever, had certainty in any investing decision. There will always be a possibility not covered. However, investing disciplines are used to determine the possibility of an outcome to come true. My judgement and my skills in investing dictated that I should sell 20% of my portfolio, which I did.

Even at today’s $52.000 BTC price, there is a possibility that I am still correct, and only time will tell If I am correct. Who knows, maybe I am correct.

Now, please remind me, when did you buy your BTC?

I believe nothing wrong about taking some profits along the way.
You're keeping the %80 after all and a pullback below 48k is still possible.

I appreciate arbuser's technical knowledge and skill but please correct me if im wrong, do you research, read and study about fundementals of bitcoin too?

Bitcoin is not a solely investment. It's a freedom tech. Do you know Andreas Antonopulos? Please, take a look at his videos and articles, i'm sure you'll find it interesting.

Bitcoin is seperation of state and money.
Don't miss the bigger picture in lure of money!

Few million bucks you make along the way are just a bonus, seriously.
Bitcoin is freedom. It's red pill against current corrupt financial sytstem and upcoming CBDCs. (central bank digital currencies)

There will be a war.
We will be slaves
Or we'll be free.

I choose freedom. I choose Bitcoin.

Let's end the fed, let's give the money to its true owner, THE PEOPLE!
FOR ONCE AND ALL!!

ps: i always appreciate your analysis arbusers. please keep'em coming and nevermind the trolls.