Arbusers

Update: A rare event called Super Over usually causes agencies to declare Full Void like today.

But the joy of the game, watched today and the lessons learned from this match, applicable in future cricket markets are far more priceless than the canceled profits today.

I'd love to read opinions about this tournament and your views on the markets if anyone has participated there.

The opening match of IPL 2023 is underway, Chennai Super Kings @ Gujarat Titans.

Obviously, the surprise from Stephen Fleming is Ruturaj Gaikwad, full of Sixes today for him and over 200 S/R now.
I am amazed that apart from the duo of Rashid Khan and Shami, no bowler today is performing superbly at the level of the defending champion team. These two facts and some other minority facts noticed on the pitch led to a small change in the trading plan.
The next pending things in the trading plan are Hundred for Gaikwad and MS Dhoni's approach (if Batsman number 7 in the batting order appears today). The range between the odds of 1.5-1.8 for CSK is very likely, but if some sharp CSK attacks touch the dropping odds of 1.4 or the Bowling dept for Titans removes at least three more CSK batsmen, pre-defined triggers are awaited.

Let's see what happens.

Alzarri Joseph save the match for the Titans in the Death stage for CSK batting. Jumping odds during the last Overs due to him and Khan.
Now at odds level of Evens is the best market entry, provided that you have a minimal idea for the tactical approach variants (last year's Stats and Data imply some info) and of course, the flow of the game and the level of risk management, suitable for the opener day IPL'23 as today.

The IPL 2023, Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians, the second part of the game is in progress now.

I wouldn't comment in detail on the sporting stuff on the Bengaluru ground right now, it seems like a very limited number of people trade in the cricket markets and love that kind of sport.
Instead, I would like to ask if anyone notices a slight change in the behavior of the market makers when it comes to the Mumbai Indians team. I know that market makers pay special attention to Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians teams, but Mumbai Indians absolutely always have slightly different curves both in pre-match mode and in-play mode. I'm also amazed that those market makers have been right in the long run in a monstrous number of such cases compared to other IPL teams (the big exception being IPL 2022).

Today I spotted the same during the Mumbai batting portion of the match, but in addition, these curves introduced by the market makers today were both adequate for the large time frame and surprisingly very weak for the short time frame. Here I am referring to some specific instances on the pitch in the first part of the match, for example, the poor batting performances of Rohit Sharma and Ishan Kishan, the prolonged batting performance of Tilak Varma, the exceptional bowling performance of Siraj and not for Glenn Maxwell, and many more.
Therefore, the calculated probabilities of wrong relations for the curves' behavior in several time intervals were the most important thing during the first part of today's game.

In the second part in Bengaluru, I am especially looking forward to the bowling behavior of Jofra Archer. Virat Kohli and Faf du Plessis in the batting attack could hardly surprise us.
Let's see what happens.

Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants is in progress now.

What a welcome at Chepauk for the brief appearance of MS Dhoni (200 S/R), those thousands of led lights from the supporters, and those 85+ meter-long Sixes by Dhoni say it all!

In terms of market behavior today, those two more probable expected time series patterns have re-emerged and the slower batting of the Death Overs stage should be rectified in some way by Stephen Fleming in the very next game. Apparently, Andy Flower had inspected very closely the Gujarat Titans' Death bowling in the previous match against CSK…. Market makers couldn't put value traps in the major live markets today.

Chahar's successful or not bowling appearance will be the focus of the quality bowling today for my model and additionally, I'm curious about the current Marcus Stoinis' form.
The first crucial mark for some probabilities is expected before the 8th or 9th Over for the Super Giants. Pandya's future performance later is an asterisk for the model also.

What a beauty minutes ago! I mean Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders minutes ago in Ahmedabad.
The 100 million mark was broken again, so the liquidity was of course brilliant. The fact that absolutely every IPL clash has brilliant liquidity gives us freedom for more experimental strategies to develop more things in the markets like an additional joker.

The milestones today were extremely much, and some of them caused very important triggers in today's settings in the model, for example:
- A strong fight after the break for KKR despite being underdogs at the time according to the agencies;
- What a strong mark in terms of wrong odds (you'll understand that only if you follow IPL matches regularly in recent years).
- An additional point for probability calculations: Andre Russell's dismissal at a very delicate moment of the match for the KKR team.
- The four Wickets taken between 15.5 and 16.3 Over, did the extremely dropping odds here for GT catch your eye? Here I mean not the raw data but the calculation of some probabilities and the real value for KKR or possible errors in those calculations... Here I mean the maximum adverse risk taken according to the latest settings of today's model.
Again, if you have had a good Stats eye for IPL recently, those computations aren't so hard, but the maximum risk and therefore the appropriate market risk isn't so constant in every setting in the model here.
- The great five consecutive Maximums for the KKR team during the last batting Over for them - this fact confirmed the calculations from the previous paragraphs above, but again the long-term risk-reward ratio and the hypothetical variable setup of the model are very, very questionable (long-term)...

That's why I'm asking you if anybody changed their model today or participate in market appearance through the traditional model (probably causing a loss in the last KKR's batting Over).

How exactly to compute the exact probabilities for that great swing of odds in future cases like today, having in mind the lack of big massive of similar data? Today's model's settings relied on the KKR behavior according to the data in the last several years, the GT tactical appearance today (as a very young team, no big samples of data for them) and others.
Again, due to the lack of very big samples of similar data, I wonder if today's calculations, (relying on KKR past data and GT tactics) of those big swings in Ahmedabad odds were lucky or close to perfect. If you've participated here, I'll be glad to read your opinions.

Has anyone noticed the new odds-making model in the IPL 2023 in the last few days? Strangely, Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians fit perfectly in creating T20 Blast-like odds patterns, but the Royal Challengers Bangalore team absolutely does not!
So even though the new probability model is in place and there is no massive data at this point regarding the current odds creation model, the new risk market instruments are more than acceptable right now.

Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad now.

Brian Lara's people are perfectly prepared for the batting portion of the game, as expected. But so unexpectedly today is their first mass IPL 2023 scoring festival at Eden Gardens!
Lara's tactics before the break included some precautions against specific KKR bowling. Russell achieved three wickets while Narine bowled a simply perfect ECON but no wicket was taken. Some graphics and data curves reacted out of the pattern in the bowling duo of Narine and Russell. The next plus was very valuable Brook's estimated batting Stats for the visiting team, rated as an underdog before the game.
So, even though the trading plan was surpassed, I am curious about KKR's tactics and how they will mitigate the ongoing chaos at Eden Gardens after the break. On the other hand, I will note how exactly Lara will overcome some weaknesses in Sunrisers' bowling.
After this analysis, some additional probabilities will be constructed on the fly. However, right now the odds have no value...

Let's see what happens.

Again and again, the prominent IPL performance in effect, Lucknow SG vs Gujarat Titans minutes ago.

Did you spot in general the Kings 11 Punjab's former players' influence?

In the pre-match generated model, the probability of both Bowling departments deciding today's match was minimal, but that happened in the end today!

The Lucknow wasted chances are a big lesson to many, including myself, thanks for that. Too many to learn and backtest...

Amazingly, Shami's bowling was used by the coach of Gujarat as a trap for the LSG team and they were caught! Mohit Sharma was used for the general task at the dead Bowling, WOW!

I think today's lesson improved a big gradient of some data for the probabilistic model in general.

Your opinions?

IPL 2023. Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians at the moment.

Chawla and Archer's bad performance is just a big great present at the moment.

There are a lot of strange odds posted right now, but the real odds are not what they are right now. Now it's time to attack some things based on model influence... Sam Curran is batting at the moment but remember that his better job is bowling...

Cameron Greeen's Wicket and his ECON Rating at the moment are more valuable than Shokeen's performance.

I'm wondering, is Arjun Tendulkar (Mumbai Indians) related to Sachin Tendulkar? ECON of over 16 at the current moment is not good at all...

Those five Sixes lately (and Jitesh Sharma's 400 S/R) guess quite a different pattern after the Break-time...

Well, the Kings' have about 1.4 odds at the moment vs the initial about 2.5 pre-match and that is triggering the additional things according to the model.
Let's see what happens.