Arbusers

Addendum in terms of analogy to the case of the 2019 ICC's World Cup Final:
Exactly the same situation as Hotspurs vs Liverpool in terms of soccer days ago in the EPL. Liverpool's opening goal was disallowed due to a referee's error, but people in the VAR room didn't tell the referee that the goal was absolutely regular, so...

When it comes to the live markets, I think the best value came a few Overs after Moeen Ali's dismissal, no matter the triggers appeared before the 20th Ov.

Also, the markets during the time window after Sam Curran was caught by Latham to the 50th Ov were filled with a lot of emotional two-way money entries, not matching the leading probability of them not crossing the line of published odds of 2.5 for England at the end of their batting part.
Now at the break time, the odds are almost equal to Evens and that's the best entry value in this match so far, provided that Rachin Ravindra & Devon Conway last longer than average (according to the Stats) vs England's bowling department.
At the last moment, triggers appeared for William Young.
And again Curran's role might be much more important today as a Bowler, if the achieved economy rate is steadily below 5.00 in the crucial parts of the game.

Let's see the second part.

While Young's early dismissal by Curran was not a surprise at all, I didn't expect such a big difference in the performances of current bowlers Woakes & Curran. Hence a further emergency correction in the Model was done plus some additional market entries as per the medium-term and long-term forecast.

If someone had entered the market very late during the break time today at the offered quota of Evens for the Kiwis and sold that position at odds of 1.15 the moment Rachin Ravindra and Devon Conway hit the Fifties, 54 and 50 Runs respectively, the gross profit here is approximately 73.9 percent of the contract specifically for this transaction.

But I worry about the Model's errors in estimating England's bowling department, with the exception of Sam Curran...

That was it! The Kiwis won vs the Three Lions in the ICC World Cup 2023 initial match.

I have to start another Stats project, inspired by some weaknesses of the Model today. No matter the chosen settings, I had no real computed likelihood of those factors, that happened today in Ahmedabad:
- Almost wicketless England bowling department and additionally poor Economy Rate as a whole (with the great exception of Sam Curran);
- Above Hundred achieved by both batsmen Ravindra (123) and Conway (152) at a stable Strike Rate of above 125;
- How exactly to use that info, provided that the aforementioned cases are rare at the top-notch clash, and if they happen, the value disappears very fast from the markets. Win by 9 Wkts and 82 balls to spare in such a Colossusses clash???

The ICC World Cup'23 tournament, India vs Australia in Chennai has started.

After the starting lineups were published, further + EV odds re-calculations were made by me with the following in mind:
- A very risky choice by the Aussies to bat first considering the ground preparation in Chennai;
- The Australian staff's decision to rest Marcus Stoinis and Sean Abbott. Their Stats lately are very erratic...
- The Indian staff's decision to choose Ishan Kishan instead of KL Rahul as a Wicketkeeper had an important influence on a lot of data comparisons; Some hidden risks are possible in a given circumstance in my opinion;
- The Steven Smith & Marnus Labuschagne potential partnership pre-assessment;
- Shubman Gill's absence is very strange;
- Estimation of how exactly Indian batsmen will mitigate Josh Hazzlewood's bowling attack;
- The dew factor when India comes in their batting portion of the game plus home advantage in the pitch preparation in Chennai.
- Others.

Let's enjoy the game!

My mistake in the previous posting, Rahul is actually WK, roughly XXY points. My apologies for that!

Some recap.
Positive from the Model in general:
- Jasprit Bumrah's top performance was fully covered so far, not only economy rate under 3.00 so far. Extremely important estimation in the live trading;
- Very correct assessments for a too-risky decision by AUS to bat first. So far, quite a few good cash-in triggers have appeared in the market due to this Model setup.
- The pre-estimation of Steven Smith's performance was fully covered.

Negative from the Model so far (before 43th Ov):
- When it comes to Labuschagne's performance, poor pre-estimation in terms of general stability.
- Not triggered the correct likelihood of too early disappearing of the market value at stable Aussies' Run Rate as a whole under 5.00 in the interval of XXX Overs, while processing some probabilities according to the obsolete inappropriate past data!
- Lack of triggers for three or more Ravindra Jadeja's Wickets taken!

More optimal settings should be found and introduced next time in the Model after a thorough error analysis...

For the second phase of the Game after the break time, I consider raising the assessment weight of the first Powerplay and later Overs, provided that Hazlewood is extremely successful, actively helped by Adam Zampa in the Bowling attack.
Nevertheless, I think the hosts are much more prepared here, combining some slow settings of the pitch plus actively managing the Required Run Rate from current favorite conditions.

I wonder how exactly to process some positions if Rohit Sharma is early eliminated...

So, Jasprit Bumrah rose to 3.5 economy rate in the Overs but the value was gone earlier.

Later in the analysis, I have to find out why there are no correct probability calculations for Ravindra Jadeja's perfect economy rate of 2.8 plus the three wickets. At the moment I see some past ODI data, for example here in Chennai, Imran Tahir (South Aftica) took 4 Wkts vs England at below 4.5 ECON.

Also, I wonder if Hardik Pandya's 9.33 economy ratio is a Statistical variance or some poor in-game performance, given that he bowled just three Overs, while Jadeja, Yadav, Ashwin and Bumrah each bowled ten Overs in scores at the interval (2.8 - 4.2). I personally didn't see any gaming errors of Pandya, but he competed vs the top-notch Aussie batsmen.

For the second part during the first Powerplay, the Model generated some probabilities in the interval (XX₁ - XX₂) of Rohit Sharma to be eliminated. Again, if the duo of Hazlewood & Zampa starts extremely well before the dew factor appears, the value may appear again.

Incredible turnaround in the first Powerplay! Starc removed Kishan and Hazlewood removed both Shreyas Iyer @ Rohit Sharma.
At the start of the third Over, India went from around 1.15 or 1.2 notional to Evens…
The problem here is the appearance of three or four long-term reliable forecasts...

October 10th, 2023, ICC World Cup Matches.

While the Three Lions vs Tigers in Dharamsala match is not that attractive in terms of proposed market odds due to removed value by the agencies (but the game is very interesting in terms of Cricket playing conditions if you can read that lovely game well), I prefer to focus heavily on the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka match which that started in Hyderabad.
Among the very interesting today's settings introduced in the Model, I chose the following ones:
- The impact of the new batting order for Pakistan. I think missing Fakhar Zaman is not the optimal decision, regardless of his recent form;
- Some probabilities on the balance of the heavy batting order versus the bowling options today for Sri Lanka;
- Matheesha Pathirana vs Ul-Haq/Shafique's pre-rated strength.
- I am aware that I cannot pre-judge whether Afridi or Rauf could be stronger in bowling against the opening Sri Lanka's top order today, so different settings are still open in the Model.

Nissanka nearly scored a Fifty and the markets suggested around Evens in terms of odds, what a trigger it could have in force if Mohammad Rizwan maintains this playing behavior in the next X Overs…

The variance of the stats of all four Pakistani bowlers around the 15th Ov is not too big so I expect additional market entry triggers soon...

Given that the Sri Lankan team is currently above the calculated par score in the ODI's in Hyderabad plus additional Pakistani bowling triggers (e.g. 75 percent of the Wickets fallen so far have belonged to one bowler), additional entry positions are suggested.

Wow, what a very late strong bowling attack by Rauf. If the CRR variable is down drastically till the 50th Ov, relocating some market positions may be valuable...

Well, the game has resumed after the break time and I'm pretty sure that Sri Lanka's bowling tactical efforts will include some tries for a lot of Wickets in a short interval of time, but I don't know whether they plan to manage the game in a too cautious way in the pre-middle Overs or not. But Theekshana vs the PAK batting duo is one of the keys.