Arbusers

Somewhere circa Pathirana's initial degraded bowling performance (before the 5 Wides moment), a mini-steam probability for PAK arose, but the Model rejected new market entries before the moment of the 30th Ov, despite Rizwan & Shafique's batting power. Awaiting Theekshana's future decisions…

By the way, If the initially announced Lankan Wicketkeeper hadn't been substituted, were the 5 Wides in 17.2 Ov possible?

The initial "forecast" of some likelihood of reverting to Evens odds again circa the 30th Over is realized. Some more market triggers now.

The Pakistan team is going to exceed the quota of the average ODI runs scored as the second batting team here at this ground in Hyderabad. Coupled with the fact that Sri Lanka overcame the average ODI score on this ground as the first batting team, and the lack of sufficient Stats in that case, it is better to avoid some risks of erasing the profit, so the exit points today are preferable far before the death stage after the 40th Ov.

ICC World Cup 2023. Mega clash between India and Pakistan in Ahmedabad has started. Same as Argentina vs. Brasil in terms of the lovely game of Soccer.

My pre-match analysis is extremely big with Data analysis, various graphs, Statistics and also non-data analysis based on what I have seen on the pitch, the current analysis of the sporting form of both teams Bharat & Pakistan, and my deep feeling about this wonderful game. The issue here was what exactly should be included in today's Model settings.

Although the latest evolution of the Model is good, I found many errors every time, but unfortunately, the discovery of these errors is post factum. On one hand, I've learned to change the current Model setting on the fly the moment the error is detected by me. On the other hand, these errors taught me many lessons and motivated me trying to create much better Model setups for each subsequent specific setup unique to each match. In the end, I whittled down the relevant Data and analysis for today's clash to about 50 sheets or so (relatively speaking), and let me present some of my ideas implemented in the Model settings today, in accordance with the published starting lineups:

- One day more preparation and recreational time for the Pakistan team before today's match;
- Perfect decision for the return of Shubman Gill to the starting lineup for India;
- I'm not convinced that batting number 4 for Mohammad Rizwan is the optimal one;
- The pre-estimation of the probability of overcoming Mohammed Siraj's own flaws in his bowling in some rare, but important cases;
- Babar Azam's good captaincy versus his recent sub-optimal form, but in my opinion, some old ideas from Sarfaraz's captaincy are working better in some cases;
- Probability of Pakistan bowling being very strong or not before death stage (say 40th Ov and above);
- One of the key battles is between the national treasures of India and Pakistan, here I mean the bowling of Jasprit Bumrah against the batting of Mohammad Rizwan. Probability portfolio of results are not so big here...
- Some experimental settings are entered today in the Model, for example, the pre-estimation weight of the activities of both the fielding departments in all Powerplays have changed according to my observations.
And plenty of other probability cases.

Let's watch the game today.

Any impressions on your side?

ICC World Cup 2023, a few words after the span of matches played so far (1st - 20th off 48). Here I don't comment 21st match India vs New Zealand, which finished a few hours ago.

As for the pre-match value that the Asian odds-makers have generously given us through the published odds:
The involved teams in that group were South Africa, England, and the Netherlands. Here I mean various published odds, for and against these teams before some of their games (but when starting line-ups were announced), compared to believed more true probabilities according to well-rationaled various settings of the custom-made Stats Model. The published odds in the Netherlands' favor vs the South African team were magnificent, having in mind Roelof van der Merwe's motivation especially vs South Africa and plenty of other factors.
Royal Challengers Bangalore & Delhi Daredevils (Capitals), did you spot his 2 wickets as a Bowler and perfect strike rate as a Batsman vs South Africa? Is it time for another IPL appearance for van der Merwe? And don't think he's old, do you remember Pravin Tambe's debut in IPL at the age of 41? Rajasthan Royals, what do you think here?

None or minimal pre-match value in published odds at the moment when starting line-ups were announced:
Bharat (India) and Pakistan are leading here. In my opinion, the weight of money wagered for the Blues and the Greens is one of the powerful factors here.
New Zealand's pre-match published odds so far were also below break-even (except for their first match vs England).
Very pity, that those three brilliant teams are quoted below fair odds, by the odds-compilers.

As for the live-mode value during the matches spotted so far (1st-20th off 48), things were much more complicated:
On one hand, the well-prepared trading plans were active and generally were very good, but some annoying errors constantly appeared, and very often when one error was fixed, another appeared in the live interval (circa eight playing hours, typically for ODI format.)
For example, despite the perfect rating of the Indian Bowling staff from my Model (and especially perfect "prediction" for Jasprit Bumrah), despite having and processing brilliant Stats for past notable Pakistani Batting collapses, such a batting collapse (starting with Mohammed Siraj's Bowling delivery to Babar Azam in 29.4 Ov, finished with the Ravindra Jadeja's Bowling delivery to Haris Rauf in 42.5 Ov.) wasn't indicated as a very probable event that day (India vs Pakistan, 12th match off 48).
Luckily, most of them were very quickly mitigated due to my experience in Cricket game analysis. As a natural consequence, these errors were extensively studied in the post-analysis period, after the end of the game. But at the end of the day, that's a Matrix of Probabilities, therefore these errors will never end, so the most important thing here is to mitigate future errors (through some probability equations) and use them as a basis for future precautionary settings in the next evolution of the Model for the next Cricket events. Overall a good performance, but far from perfect. There are many things to do here. New lessons were learned, and I'm grateful for that.
Most of the games were in the 100-200 million liquidity ranges, so the best odds, the maximum efficiency market plus nearly unlimited entry/exit amounts during those eight ODI hours are good options.

Some words for appeared value during live mode so far:
Practically almost every team had priced variable + EV at some moments on the market, if you read the game well. For example, the time interval, when Pakistan was firmly priced at odds of over 6.00 (somewhere circa Madushanka's Bowling deliveries to Babar Azam) and even much more, before Rizwan's batting storm and victory over Sri Lanka.

And so on, and so forth.

When it comes to India vs New Zealand (match 21st off 48), which finished a few hours ago in Dharamsala, there are plenty of data sheets and fundamental analyses, starting with some strange behavior on the pitch and some interesting Statistics. In my opinion, both teams are hiding tricks for the Play-Offs, and why not for the Final?

Let's see further. Enjoy the World Cup'23!

ICC World Cup '23, Le Grand Finale India vs Australia in Ahmedabad started minutes ago.

Can't comment at all on the offered odds. The value was removed by the agencies unless you are absolutely sure India will achieve the tenth consecutive victory in that tournament.

It is absolutely impossible to summarize my hundreds of sheets of preliminary analysis, data, statistics, and graphs, but in short: I divide today's Final game into a few well-chosen periods when in my opinion the probability of some value emerging is most likely, based on years of observation of this wonderful game by my side.

When it comes to sports analysis: I give crucial importance to the Bowling Department of both teams today.
While for Indian tactics and odds move towards in-game prediction from me, I assign something like 55:45 weightage in favor of the Bowling Department quality rating (not just Jasprit Bumrah of course!) vs quality rating of the Batting Department and some deterministic accelerations at the beginning of the third batting Indian Powerplay today (but here the preliminary assessment of the Bowling quality of Adam Zampa, Mitchell Starc and Co will decide most things today).
As for the domestic ratio of Australians, I'll adjust my Model even further - something like 65:35 percent in favor of Bowling Dept quality pre-estimation. Why? After the Aussies' disastrous second World Cup match against the South African team's Batting Department, Pat Cummins and the coaches made plenty of minor improvements, resulting in stability.
Naturally, additionally, hundreds of things are tuned up in today's Model that I can't comment on publicly. For example, the Night part of the game today.

Let's see what happens in the next 8 hours.

It's a very rare occasion in my career so far, but after Mitchell Starc's third wicket (against Shami's strike in 43.4v Ov) and after Adam Zampa's lbw wicket against Jasprit Bumrah in 44.5 Ov, some unusual triggers appeared in addition to some preliminary match analyses. The issue here is the correct percentage rating estimation by the current Model settings, given that this is a World Cup final event. WOW!

At last, the big opportunities for projected value (conditional, according to pre-analyses) appeared after 240/10 Indian result in their battin' portion of the game.
Now everything is in the Aussies batters' hands and... Jasprit Bumrah as well. Extraordinary raising of the Indian Bowling Dept estimation is in effect. The second part of the equation is the possibility of Pat Cummins' change of tactics at an appropriate time of the second part and the right estimation of that.
Let's see what happens.

What the market opportunities were here! After David Warner's wicket that was achieved by Shami (caught by Virat Kohli in 1.1Ov), there were consecutive 5 Wides and a Four by Mitchell Marsh against Mohammed Shami's deliveries.
At that point, I personally chose to close all my positions, far before the game ended for safety reasons.

Your opinions about the Game?

The very next days after the ICC ODI World Cup 2023 Final India vs Australia were fulfilled with... the brilliant T20I series India vs Australia, what a joyful decision for circa a billion Cricket lovers!!!

The third T20 International, India vs Australia in Guwahati has started already.
Based on the very in-depth Stats available so far, and also what I spotted in the first two games of that T20I Series on November 23rd and 26th, the game plan to attack some markets was set for today.

Some of the tune-ups for today's Model include the following:
- The coach's very late decision to return Travis Head to the starting line-up.
Here I have in mind not only his ability to have a crucial role in the Batting department to decide things if the opposite bowlers couldn't remove him. But I don't know his actual sporting form, compared to the ODI final, so additional margin points are counted here, compared to the 19th of November.
- The pre-estimation of the Aussies' changed batting order. Here I have in mind the lack of Steven Smith in the initial line-up.
- The lack of Adam Zampa today, that's madness.
- The pre-estimation of Ruturaj Gaikwad's probability of achieving or not more runs scored than the match in Thiruvananthapuram on the 26th of November (58 runs).
- And lots of more.

Rinku Singh is an enigma for my Model today...

Let's see what happens.

Well, an emergency change in the trading plan is in progress - Jason Behrendorff is achieving 0.5 ECON Stats for two of his bowling Overs at the moment when India is prized circa at 2.3 offered odds by the agencies, at the beginning of the 6th Over...

The perfect storm - India & Australia are priced at circa 2.00 each, and the Strike Rate of every Indian batter is very different (126 and 85), and the Economy rate of current Aussie bowlers is quite different (6 and 11 respectively), circa the beginning of the 7th Ov.
The new tune-ups are in effect.

I wonder how exactly to react to the current case: apparently, Gaikwad is more than cautious in his batting effort after Kishan & Yadav's dismissal. I felt the importance of accurately pre-assessing the Indians' bowling effort in the second half of the game against Travis Head, Josh English and Co.
Despite that, I'll wait for Rinku Singh's appearance before the final pre-estimations.

Ruturaj Gaikwad has just passed 58 runs as the preliminary analysis calls for a possibility of it.
But my mistake here was not "predicting" the Indian steam at odds of 2.00 to around 1.5 on consecutive Fours and Wides from his side recently... what a lesson learned at this point... Fortunately, I am watching that match.

I'll include in the post-analysis the underestimation of Ruturaj Gaikwad's effort today. Although the current settings alerted me to the likelihood of 58 Runs by him being made and the implications for the Indian team as a whole of that, no likelihood was made of the actual 123 (215 S/R). Nothing fatal, but a missed value, I think...

Despite almost all hedged positions today, some minority positions are still alive on the market and well, trying to 'predict' the likelihood of an Indian bowling effort in the event that the absence of the most prominent Indian bowlers is against the current Aussie batting core, that includes today Head, Inglis, Maxwell etc. on the pitch.

Your opinions?