Arbusers

Guys,
This is a forum dedicated to arbing, but i decided to start this thread because i believe that we are in front of an once in a lifetime chance.
You all know that Greece is passing a great financial and fiscal crisis. Probably you already have an idea in your mind of what is going on in Greece, but you ll never have the complete picture unless you live in Greece, in the center of this crisis.
I m following the Elliott wave theory since 2007. Those who know me from the old site, know what I mean.
Now, I m not saying that this crisis is close at its end. Not at all. I believe that there is still way to go. All I m saying is keep an eye on Greece, cause the opportunities here will be unbelievable. This crisis is similar to the big crash of 1929-1932 that the US faced.
Put your self at the end of 1932. Having in mind the Elliott wave theory, you could be at the beginning of a Super Cycle that started in 1932, and (probably) ended in 2009.

This is a country with a great geopolitical position. Unlike what others believe, this is a nation of hard workers and fighters. Sooner or later this bad Super Cycle will end, and we will find our selves in the same position that I described before.

I selected a number of companies to my watch list.

Fourlis ΦΡΛΚ
Motor Oil MOH
Jumbo ΜΠΕΛΑ
Mitilineos MYTIΛ
Deh ΔΕΗ
Eydap ΕΥΔΑΠ
Elpe ΕΛΠΕ
Folli-Follie ΦΟΛΙ
Opap ΟΠΑΠ

This is just a watch list, not a recommendation of buying something.

The Elliott Wave counting for Greek General Index.

Possible end of wave 3. Not a Bull market yet.

Guys, it seems that we are in a big 4 wave.
According to the Elliott Wave theory that i m using, this wave cant go higher than 1450. Most possible end must be around 1000. Keep in mind that this wave needs some time. I expect that it will require some months till the end of it.
After wave 4, there is a wave 5, that will bring the end of the Supercycle.  According to the Elliot Wave theory, this kind of waves occur when there are major events, such us wars, revolutions etc.
Our Greek friends should be prepared to see things beyond their wildest imagination in the coming years.
I m monitoring this market closely, and will try to detect the end of wave 4, where we should all start shorting the Greek market.

We are in big wave 4.
I estimate that it will end in 1052, or 1411, because there are many fibo lines there.

Guys, this is the end of big wave 4. The margin for a further up way is very limited.
To all of you who follow me in the Greek stock market, i suggest you sell everything.
According to the Elliot Wave Theory and my counting, the big wave 5 will start very soon. It is going to be a catastrophic one. It will last 2.5-5 years and will end up with a war, a revolution, or a major catastrophe for Greece.
The grand super cycle that started for Greece in 1821 is closing now. Good luck to all of our Greek friends.
Dont say that you weren't warned. I will be back with a picture soon.

i have not a great experience in elliot waves theory, but  i would like to ask you something seems possible to me.
i see that the grand super cycle peaked in1999 and since then we are watching its correction.
this correction that started in 1999 is a 3 wave correction.
AB  1999-2003
BC  2003-2007
CD  2007-2012

i believe that now we are on the beginning of the new rising grand super cycle.

what is your opinion about my perspective?

The correction started in 1999 has 3 waves as you correctly said, because we must see an ABC formation. We are now in the C wave that must have a 1-2-3-4-5 formation. Wave 1 finished in 1458. Wave 2 finished in 2932. Wave 3 finished in 471 and we are now watching wave 4 that must end in 1052 or 1453. Your guess will be correct and mine wrong, if the general index goes above 1453-1458. Every price above this, is the green light for the new grand super cycle.
Really, what makes you so optimistic?

i am Greek, so i know that my country has in fact already bankrupt.
Greece couldnt pay its dept, so EU and IMF got involved.
how much worse can it get?

for me there are only two scenarios that would lead toward a catastrophe.
1. Italys elections in February. if Berlusconi wins, there is a possibility of Italy getting out of the eurozone and after that euro is history for every country.
but we must consider that such an accident will be a complete disaster globally.

2. a crash in American stock market, that would drift any stock market in the world.

any way, i believe that nowadays due to Globalisation, any accident occurs in Greece could affect Italy, and Italy could affect Spain and so on.
Greeces failure will be bad news for every country and domino effect is something everyone has in mind.
thats why i believe that Greece will get all the necessary help.

of course we can never be sure of anything, so we will both have to wait until 1453-1458.

thanks for your response!!

I would like to remind you my post of October 7th, when i mentioned the 1052 top.
The General index stopped at 1052.83. See the new graph.
Beyond Elliot wave counting, there is a technical sign indicating that 1052 is a major top. That is reduced volumes.

It looks like the big wave 4 move is now ended in 1052.83. The length and the height of wave 4 is satisfying me.
All the move is very well coordinated with S&P500.
I m trying to find any reason, why big wave 4 is not over yet in 1052.83. I found only 1.
There is a lot of fresh blood coming in the S&P during these last 2 years. This fresh blood is strictly American households that are condemned to lose again the same way that they did during 2009. If the big brains in the US decide that they need even more fresh blood, we might see a new move in S&P 500 towards 1570-1580. That would be the end, as we described it in the S&P thread. Therefore, this might give the chance to the Greek stock market to move up again, towards 1052 as a failed wave 5, or even higher towards 1411 as a normal wave 5. I m still not opening short positions waiting to see S&Ps behavior first. However, i believe that the scenario of big wave 4 finishing in 1052.83 is now dominant.

I see that many people are interested in this thread, so i will give some more food for thought here.
Today's closing found the general index near the lowest price of the day. This is not a good sign, because it indicates that the 940 line was not strong. There are many levels that i would consider as supports from now on, but my guess is that one way or an other, the General index must move towards 850, before it goes up again to 950.
Needless to say that i m not good at short moves, and also, my analysis is not an advise for anyone to buy or sell anything.

Next target 850. I will then count again waves.

We got our target of 850. The general index moved even lower intraday to 821 but the close was at 849.something.
Once again, our prediction of 850 as it was posted on March the 11th was very much correct. Guys, you are getting free cash here.
Now, we expect a wave 2 for the next days/weeks. We cant say what the form will be. It might be a flat 2 or a zig zag 2. Elliott wave theory is leaving all options open here. As far as it concerns the length, we must find appropriate fibo levels to lock. To my eyes, the zone of 955-980 looks perfect.
See attached graph.
I expect that Greek mass media will try bringing back a sense of normality, nothing happened, the Cypriots are alive, investments (of the @ss) coming to Greece and all this bs that almost dead people need to believe. This will be the cover for our wave 2 before something else  dijsselbloem everything giving the signal for the third wave.
Once, there was a great Israeli General called Ariel Sharon. Before one of his campaigns against Lebanon, he used the phrase '' formaldehyde before mutilation ''. This is exactly what is happening to Greece those last 4 years. They give doses of formaldehyde and then they mutilate something. The thing is that these doses are getting smaller and smaller. Every day that passes brings closer the decapitation. A situation where formaldehyde has no use or value.

wow your prevision was good 
913 today, next target is up again?