Greek Stock Market

Where to invest the surplus of funds
Iliaslekkos
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:52 pm

Seems to have gone very quiet on this thread, especially considering all the developments of the last few months. Have you given up?
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:50 pm

I never give up. The developments are confirming the accuracy of my analysis. I avoid mass posting in exchange of quality.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Sat Oct 17, 2015 10:45 am

I m finding my self tempted many times to short term trading, but I feel it is wiser to stay in the long term. The game was easier before 00s. Now, I have the feeling that almost all markets are manipulated against fundamentals, but this manipulation has no endurance in the long term, with the exception of oil and its derivatives.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Mon Jan 18, 2016 5:03 pm

Today the Greek stock market reached 532 offering a miraculous 33% move that we managed to anticipate exactly 1 year ago. I really hope that you capitalized your presence in the forum, because opportunities of these magnitude are extremely rare in the history of the world's stock markets.
You do understand that you are getting for free what others pay with high 6 figure amounts.
I m encouraging everyone to re-read and literally study this thread from the very beginning.
I will present my analysis from now on when I find time.
thag
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:48 am

Just started reading this, very interesting indeed...

So let me see if I got this:
Looks like 18-01 (532) could be the end of the 5th wave and the end of a C? Or do you believe it could still be a 3rd wave?
So great time to buy in? Or wait to see what happens after the C (up or down)...
Last edited by thag on Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:34 pm

thag wrote:
Looks like 18-01 (532) could be the end of the 5th wave? Or do you believe it could still be the 3rd wave?
It is not the end of the 5th wave. The end of the 5th wave will be an event of huge magnitude, we haven't seen that yet. Nor 3rd wave, because 3rd wave is long time gone.
It might be 3rd subwave of the 5th wave, but yet again, we don't see the volumes needed to say that. 3rd waves are the waves with the biggest volumes.
I will come back again with a more detailed description soon.
thag
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:41 pm

With end of the 5th wave, I meant it could be your first scenario from a year ago?
Ok, thanks for your reply, I'll wait for your detailed sub.!
Last edited by thag on Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:27 pm

The Elliott wave counting for the Greek General Index as presented here with our July 10th 2012 post remains intact.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,698.msg6852.html#msg6852
More importantly the justification of our counting as it was posted with the January 17th 2015 post is proven correct multiple times.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,698.msg34186.html#msg34186
As a result, we anticipated several huge moves of the index, and we enjoyed similar gains. We even predicted the bounces of the index when it went near the 550 level and that offered additional gains to those who read us.
However, there is still one unanswered question and that would be, which scenario will be the correct one for the General Index?
Let me remind you these 2 scenarios:
Arbusers wrote: 1st: Wave C ends near 470. In this case, we will have a failed 5th sub-wave. This is within the Elliot wave theory. It is not the norm, but an exception that occurs often. When we are talking about a failed 5th sub-wave, we are talking about a price range from 470 to 550. That means that we must be vigilant when (not if) the general index goes that low. This is a 31-41% move from the current level (791). A final bottom between 470 and 550 would be the positive scenario for Greece. A scenario that will leave Greece with a devastated economy and depleted population, but intact as a country. In any case, this level of prices will compel the general index to bounce and this will be a good opportunity for profit.
2nd: Wave C ends below 470. This is the negative scenario for Greece. A general index below 470 will mean that all achievements since the 1980s will be ruined and forgotten. It will put Greece within a Balkan context and not a European one. It also means that the level of 470 will become a roof. This roof will be removed (if ever) after many decades. The general index will be bouncing between the final bottom and 470 several times. The magnitude of the catastrophe will be immense. The country will be so much weak, that a major geopolitical event will be ante portas, dismembering it and producing irreversible results. According to Elliott theory, this kind of waves ends with revolutions, wars, or other major events of this type.
As previously said several times, the 470 level
Arbusers wrote: is very much important and has the tendency to magnetize the general index.
That means that we are about to see these level again. Because of it's importance, the 470 level will not brake at once. It needs to be retested and then we will see if it brakes or not, and like this we will take our final answer to the question ''which scenario is right''. Many analysts will now think in the same way and artificial intelligence (computer based Elliott wave counting) will signal the same things. That means that we shouldn't expect the 470 level, because many people will be there waiting for the same thing. Our new target is the level of 490-495, and we will try to see if it is a healthy idea to exploit a decent bounce from there. So the next question is, how will that bounce look like?
We must play safe in situations like this, and we must look for the minimum length, safe Elliott wave, that will start from there. The minimum Elliot wave will be a 23.8% bounce of the total wave that started in October the 27th at the price of 727.38. The minimum length of that wave would be 55, offering (if anticipated correctly) a profit of 11%.

The conclusion of all these, combined with our level of greed, shows that we must NOT take advantage of that wave. A 11% profit at a risk of total collapse is not luring us.
Our position should be, ''out of the market'' until we have credible signals to decide which scenario is right.
Last edited by arbusers on Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
thag
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:56 am

Well, looks like the 470 level is tested
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:42 pm

We need to see a monthly closing below 470 to draw our conclusions.
From the look of it, it seems that 470 is broken and new adventures are coming in the future.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Thu May 12, 2016 8:59 pm

vaggosm
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue May 24, 2016 9:02 am

still out of the market or time to get in?
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue May 24, 2016 11:53 am

vaggosm wrote: still out of the market or time to get in?
Still out. There are no clear signs about any direction. For sure, I wouldn't put hopes in a left success story as it might be sold to the Greek audience.
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arbusers
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:08 pm

I m coming back to the Greek stock market (ASE) to present my analysis about the end of the Grand Super Cycle.

In my previous posts, I explained the Elliott waves counting for ASE. More importantly, I adopted an ABC formation. Waves A, B and C are consisted of 5 sub-waves of minor degree. We are now running the 5th sub-wave of wave C.

This is the Long Term Elliott Wave counting for ASE. You can see my counting remaining exactly the same since 2012 when I started this thread dedicated to ASE. You do understand the quality of my analysis.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,698.msg6852.html#msg6852

[html]Long Term Elliott wave counting for Athens Stock Exchange. More details and analysis: https://t.co/sn7kn6Ywjn pic.twitter.com/7rhPjUXWNp— Arbusers (@Arbusers) June 26, 2016 [/html]

According to Elliott theory, this kind of waves ends with revolutions, wars, or other major events of this type. This is in accordance to the Kondratieff theory that clearly indicates turning points in the history of nations.

The short term Elliott wave counting for ASE.

[html]Mid Term Elliott wave counting for Athens Stock Exchange. More details and analysis: https://t.co/sn7kn7g7HX pic.twitter.com/7hjQtsyPf7— Arbusers (@Arbusers) June 26, 2016 [/html]

During these last months, reality gave us a hint that absolutely no-one globally paid attention too. With the exception of arbusers of course. This hint was the day of 11th of February 2016. It was the day when the General Index went down to 421, a 26 years low.

What was the importance of the day?
I explained in my previous posts the importance of the 470 level that has the tendency to magnetize the general index. This level is now clearly broken and will not be a support in the future. Under 470, there are no supports that could hold the fall. Prepare for a general index far below 470.

Why was that 26 years low that specific day?
During February 2016, there was no financial or fiscal turbulence for Greece and this makes me thing that there is a reason beyond economy. By taking a look at the news of the day, we see that it was the only day that the Greek state lost control of the capital Athens. It was the day that young farmers from Crete and continental Greece invaded Athens with their tractors and expelled police from every central point of Athens. This indicates that fundamental institutions in Greece will be seriously questioned in the future.

In this stage, I bring in the demographic factor.
1. Greeks is the 3rd most super aged nation in the planet, about to take the 2nd place from Germans due to mass migration of young Greeks. Some sources indicate that Greeks are the 5th most super aged nation, but no sources indicate a better than this position.
2. Greece is one of the only 4 European countries that life expectancy is declining.
3. Greece is one of the few countries where child mortality is going up.
4. Greece holds the 4th higher youth unemployment rate in the planet.
These 4 bullets are clearly showing that Greece belongs to Europe only geographically.

Combining what is mentioning above, we can say that the end of the Grand Super Cycle will be a catastrophe combining geopolitical, social, demographic and institutional factors.

The end of the Grand Super Cycle will be determined by Fibonacci analogies. Because of the degree of the cycle, there are 2 analogies that we should take under consideration. First, the analogies of 1,2,3,4,5 sub-waves. Second, the A,B,C analogies, that are more important than the previous. These analogies do not match. The earliest possible end of the Grand Super Cycle according to the first analogies is the end 2017, start of 2018. All other analogies, indicate that the end goes to September 2019 or further.

The overall result is that it is still too early to determine the end of the Grand Super-cycle, but we can say with certainty that the price will again go near 420. You can bet on it.
Last edited by arbusers on Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Greek Stock Market

Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:36 am

Where can you trade this index? Or you just make a portfolio of all the stocks?

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