Live arbing

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fnatic91
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:38 pm

Thordin wrote:
fnatic91 wrote:
Rufus wrote: Guys how do you approach over/under live arbs? Taking over first from my experience doesnt work, as 99% of my bets are over in sharp, under in soft and by the time the sharp book would accept the bet, the arb would be gone. Other way around losses will definitily happen (that feeling when one goal blows away all your saturday profit...hmmm).

So, how do you overcome this problem? Do you avoid such arbs completely? Do you take only high % arbs and hope that in the long run you will be in profit? Or do you really bet over first?
You will never make any profit if you bet over first , you have said yourself the reason.
Bet under firstly and once it is accepted , bet over.Like you said , in most of the cases (80-90%) over is placed at asians , so you will have your bet pending.A goal might be scored and you will have big losses.No matter , you will have profits in long term , i assure you.
Just don't place arbs which gives you less than 5% of your "under" stake.If you place 100 EUR on under at europeans , it means that you must place only arbs which give you more than 5 EUR.This way , you need only 20 arbs to recover the losses from " 1 goal"
So,  by your experience, goals happen less than 1/20?
Yes.
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:14 pm

This rule of 5 % profit from you under stake is reasonable. Some statistics of collected data from such bets could reveal more, but this 1/20 goal scoring assumption seems to be close to reality.
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:23 pm

Rufus wrote: This rule of 5 % profit from you under stake is reasonable. Some statistics of collected data from such bets could reveal more, but this 1/20 goal scoring assumption seems to be close to reality.
Base on my own stats the probability of the goal is 1,8% , which means that 1,8 goals  are scored in 100 bets.My net profit is smth like 65% of my total profi , the  rest (35%) is the loss i have suffered from goals being scored in pending time.

Yes , that is a rule that i  follow.You must never place bets less than 5 EUR (5% of your under bet,which we are assuming it is 100 EUR) unless it is  HT where there is no danger.
If you place bets for 2 EUR profit, you need now 50 arbs to recover the losses and i doubt that you will make any money.
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:03 pm

I have a very limited experience in live betting but I assume that even if a goal in scored in the pending period you may not lose it all (if the match is not close to finish). Otherwise you may still backup the bet with a lose of "only" 50-60 euro instead of 100 so you will "only" need 10-12 bets to get back your money...
For myself live arbing was nice for a while as I could bet gamebookers (under) vs pinny (over). Thought is was the best pair of bookies by far for live arbing on soccer.
Still I got limited at gamebookers and I couldn't find other bookie to give the same value. You have any suggestions of bookies that I may have not tried? Alternatives to gamebookers?
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:41 pm

ranrom wrote: I have a very limited experience in live betting but I assume that even if a goal in scored in the pending period you may not lose it all (if the match is not close to finish). Otherwise you may still backup the bet with a lose of "only" 50-60 euro instead of 100 so you will "only" need 10-12 bets to get back your money...
It depends. If the goal made you already lose the bet then that's it (i.e. you bet under 2.5 when the match was 1-1). If the arb is on U3.5/O3.5 or U4.5/O4.5, etc. then you can limit your loss.
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Re: Live arbing

Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:19 pm

Yes, that is why I never bet on UO for the next goal. I bet only on UO at least 1.5 goals from the moment of placing the bet, in order to have some space to limit the loss.
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Re: Live arbing

Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:35 pm

Hi, we are working on live arbing scanner.
Last edited by BetBurger on Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:05 am

You know how we talked that goal is scored less than 1x from 20 matches during placing a bet? Well today I had 5 goals from 14  bets. How ridiculous is that? someone surely cursed me or I dont know... It cost me aprox 25% of my monthly profits  :(
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:27 am

Rufus wrote: You know how we talked that goal is scored less than 1x from 20 matches during placing a bet? Well today I had 5 goals from 14  bets. How ridiculous is that? someone surely cursed me or I dont know... It cost me aprox 25% of my monthly profits  :(
Very sad thing, that's why I try to avoid Asian bookies in live arbing. Smaller gains, but also less stress
Last edited by qurde1979 on Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:30 am

live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:08 am

yorkjoss wrote: live arbing is gambling especially with the asians, the danger zone takes the edge away from us, it is inevitable that a goal
will be scored, it only takes a split second for a shot to go in the net, with the asians that is never going to happen in our favour
only against you, not even bots can work here, arbing is so tough nowadays, we have to take risks to maintain our profits
and then we cry like a baby when things which is inevitable don't go our way ;D
Bet365 is our live ''asian'', accepts over bets in 3-5 seconds.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 2:46 pm

Rufus wrote: You know how we talked that goal is scored less than 1x from 20 matches during placing a bet? Well today I had 5 goals from 14  bets. How ridiculous is that? someone surely cursed me or I dont know... It cost me aprox 25% of my monthly profits  :(
You have been just unlucky , that happens.You can have losses in short run , but never in long run.I had negative days , but never had any negative week , not to mention months.MY worst moth was december 2011 when my net profit in the end of the month was 20% of my total profits , i lost 80% due to goals scored in pending time.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:06 pm

fnatic91 wrote: You have been just unlucky , that happens.You can have losses in short run , but never in long run.I had negative days , but never had any negative week , not to mention months.MY worst moth was december 2011 when my net profit in the end of the month was 20% of my total profits , i lost 80% due to goals scored in pending time.
Yes, very unlucky. But you are right, profit in long run is what we need. I hope that yesterday I run out of bad luck and from now will be in positive again. That shitty feeling however... reminds me of the time not so long ago when I was just straight betting like a moron :D
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:29 pm

Hi guys, I did not try live arbing, but reading your comments an idea came into my head: cross-market live arbs. Do you think it is worth investing time to investigate this? Would it be possible to get a positive risk/reward ratio?
Thanks.
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Re: Live arbing

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:13 pm

whitesnake wrote: Hi guys, I did not try live arbing, but reading your comments an idea came into my head: cross-market live arbs. Do you think it is worth investing time to investigate this? Would it be possible to get a positive risk/reward ratio?
Thanks.
Your question is very general. You will need to do that manually if you want something good.

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