Pinnacle results

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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:38 pm

Interesting discussion.  A lot of my arbing is between Betfair, Matchbook and Pinnacle.  God knows which one is out lol
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:39 am

middler wrote: The same guy who left 5500$ open on a bet with negative value, just because he could not accept his own mistake and take a loss, says that he wouldn't think about value betting.
That's exactly my point is. I placed $5500 with soft book and as per value betting rule, I must win that bet. But I was very close to lose that bet and last minute goal from France saved my $5500.

Mate I am winning in Pinnacle for over 5 months now. My betting  volume on Pinnacle from January 2016 till today is over $1.2 Million. On average I place 40-45 arbs per week. With 6 months continuous winning on Pinnacle with betting volume of over $1.2 million, I can definitely say with authority that value betting is nothing but just another gambler fallacy just like martingale system. You will eventually go burst no matter how solid your money management and stake management skills are.

Show me consistent profit week after week, month after month through value betting then I will say yes that's a thing. But nobody here can show continuous profit through value betting. I can show you continuous profit week after week, month after month through arbing.

The more I analyze my data, more I think about this point. Sharp books just balance their books. They don't care who will win, who will lose. Sharp book odds will not indicate who will win or who will lose. They need their margin profit irrespective of any winner or loser.

Soft books don't care about balancing their books. Almost all soft books copy odds from sharp books and change their odds as soon as odds change on Pinnacle or other sharpies. Softbooks depend on mug or square punters for their revenue and profit. 

Let me give you an example: I arb very heavy amount amount on all matches of Philippine basketball league. Yo can say it was my niche market. To give you an example, Pinnacle opening line for Team A and Team B are 1.8 and 2.04. My local bookie giving odds of 1.75 and 2. So now what I will do I will place $10,000 with my local bookie on Team B with odds of 2. My local bookie can't change odds of Team B  because odds on pinnacle doesn't change.  So now I will go to Pinnacle and start hitting Team B on Pinnacle. On Pinnacle, Philippines Basketball matches limits starts from $150-$200. So I will hit Team B on Pinnacle with maximum limits available which is only $150-$200. As soon as Pinnacle hit with maximum limit their odds change very fast. So after hitting Team B on Pinnacle for 3-4 times continuously with maximum limit, Team B odds drop drastically. Just in matter of minutes, odds on Team A could be anywhere between 2.3-2.4 while odds on team B will be 1.6-1.7. Obviously all softbooks now change their odds because odds change on pinnacle. At this stage, I will go back to my local bookie and again drop $10,000 on Team A with guranteed profit irrespective of any team winning. Now in all this process from changing odds of Team B from 2.04 to 1.6, some fools will try to find value in odds. But there is no value. Because pinnacle odds change under weight of money. They don't care who will win and who will lose. It's very easy to manipulate odds of small leagues on Pinnacle. Obviously you need big bank balance but you can change odds on small leagues by continuously hitting maximum limits. You will surprise to see this how fast odds change if you hit pinnacle with maximum limits.

So now explain me how you will find value in the odds in this scenario when someone like me exploiting very small leagues? You are just gambling mate on the name of value betting. Nothing more.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:02 am

So you left a $5550 bet exposed.
So then you have a $550,000 Bankroll?
Cos 1% is considered proper BRM for bets by folks.

Show you profit week after week?
Others on this site have been posting their results with value betting, just look in the search box. I know that actually takes effort to go and find and it's much easier to say.................

"But nobody here can show continuous profit through value betting"

Cos after all it's the job of others to present you the data of their successful ideas rather than you go find them on the site.

As far as for consistency, thats why you use conservative bankroll management (and don't leave a $5500 arb exposed) so you can sleep at night after a bad day or when things don't go your way.

And then................

"Sharp book odds will not indicate who will win or who will lose"

The market will correct any odds that are out of whack and do you think that Pinny just puts a junk number up there and takes a 20k bet on it?
And stays in business for all this time?
Really?

And then................

"Soft books don't care about balancing their books. Almost all soft books copy odds from sharp books and change their odds as soon as odds change on Pinnacle or other sharpies."

Just LOL,
Go to odds portal and look.
If this were true how do you find arbs?
How can you find value bets to begin with if this is true?
And how will a softbook stay in business if they don't care about balancing their books and leave themselves routinely over exposed?

And then.........................

You give an instance where you are betting games that have a $200 bet limit.
In those leagues with such crap limits do you think the odds are as accurate as a game with odds that you can bet 20k a side on?
C'Mon.
If you do, you need help because there is a reason they are only taking $200 on a side.
Plus as you've shown the odds can be manipulated or changed by either someone or a few drunk people betting on their favorite team.
Thats why you don't look at leagues with low limits to do value betting.
Once again, you would know this if you would search the site to see what people are posting rather than just saying.................

"But nobody here can show continuous profit through value betting"

On that note I'm gonna leave ya with my 2nd favorite passage from the Bible...........

Proverbs 18.2

"Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions."
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:09 am

ProfGambler wrote:
middler wrote: The same guy who left 5500$ open on a bet with negative value, just because he could not accept his own mistake and take a loss, says that he wouldn't think about value betting.
That's exactly my point is. I placed $5500 with soft book and as per value betting rule, I must win that bet. But I was very close to lose that bet and last minute goal from France saved my $5500.

Mate I am winning in Pinnacle for over 5 months now. My betting  volume on Pinnacle from January 2016 till today is over $1.2 Million. On average I place 40-45 arbs per week. With 6 months continuous winning on Pinnacle with betting volume of over $1.2 million, I can definitely say with authority that value betting is nothing but just another gambler fallacy just like martingale system. You will eventually go burst no matter how solid your money management and stake management skills are.

Show me consistent profit week after week, month after month through value betting then I will say yes that's a thing. But nobody here can show continuous profit through value betting. I can show you continuous profit week after week, month after month through arbing.

The more I analyze my data, more I think about this point. Sharp books just balance their books. They don't care who will win, who will lose. Sharp book odds will not indicate who will win or who will lose. They need their margin profit irrespective of any winner or loser.

Soft books don't care about balancing their books. Almost all soft books copy odds from sharp books and change their odds as soon as odds change on Pinnacle or other sharpies. Softbooks depend on mug or square punters for their revenue and profit. 

Let me give you an example: I arb very heavy amount amount on all matches of Philippine basketball league. Yo can say it was my niche market. To give you an example, Pinnacle opening line for Team A and Team B are 1.8 and 2.04. My local bookie giving odds of 1.75 and 2. So now what I will do I will place $10,000 with my local bookie on Team B with odds of 2. My local bookie can't change odds of Team B  because odds on pinnacle doesn't change.  So now I will go to Pinnacle and start hitting Team B on Pinnacle. On Pinnacle, Philippines Basketball matches limits starts from $150-$200. So I will hit Team B on Pinnacle with maximum limits available which is only $150-$200. As soon as Pinnacle hit with maximum limit their odds change very fast. So after hitting Team B on Pinnacle for 3-4 times continuously with maximum limit, Team B odds drop drastically. Just in matter of minutes, odds on Team A could be anywhere between 2.3-2.4 while odds on team B will be 1.6-1.7. Obviously all softbooks now change their odds because odds change on pinnacle. At this stage, I will go back to my local bookie and again drop $10,000 on Team A with guranteed profit irrespective of any team winning. Now in all this process from changing odds of Team B from 2.04 to 1.6, some fools will try to find value in odds. But there is no value. Because pinnacle odds change under weight of money. They don't care who will win and who will lose. It's very easy to manipulate odds of small leagues on Pinnacle. Obviously you need big bank balance but you can change odds on small leagues by continuously hitting maximum limits. You will surprise to see this how fast odds change if you hit pinnacle with maximum limits.

So now explain me how you will find value in the odds in this scenario when someone like me exploiting very small leagues? You are just gambling mate on the name of value betting. Nothing more.
Re Phillipines: thanks buddy, you made ma a ton of money this year.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:18 am

and what's the problem with gambling if you have it solved? In value betting in any way (either taking forgotten soft odds or the analytics way) you are operating like a casino with blackjack, sure the casino can lose but the cardinal rule keep them playing and they will end up with all the money. I'm so close to show  some screens about a week to week charts but in the other hands wth doesn't worth it
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:22 am

Pyramid Strategy has a negative expectation so...in the long haul, u will lose money it's similar than typical betting on red or black in the roulette and increase the amount of money with every lose, probabilities are against you.
Obviously Value Betting has bad months, but, probabilities are with you, so u will win.
Most of the people here said that they have negative profits in Pinnacle, with millions turnover, and thousands of bets did it. If u calculate the probabilities to be negative with this number of bets having a positive expectation, u will see that this probabilities are close to 0.
If you know where is the value, you can bet there, and earn money after long time. Maths never lie.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:40 pm

So we have people using pyramid scheme references and people who leave $5500 arb bets exposed as the folks that can't seem to figure out why it works.
Fire up the RDJ!!!

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Last edited by RoosterDonky on Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 3:59 pm

hahaha so your assumption is based on phillipines basketball league? hitting on opening odds?
If you have such big liquidity, your strategy is good, and I'm glad you are making money, but that does not mean value betting is a lie.
You said it yourself, you can manipulate your niche market because off the LACK OF LIQUIDITY.
That is what you are missing here. Value betting is not just taking any odd out of the line. You need to check the market, the overall liquidity, you usually need to bet as close to the start of the event as you can, as obviously many things can happen from the time when the market opens until the start of the event (injuries, line ups, weather, etc).
Just think about it for a second. What is an arb? It is simply you finding a way for getting overpaid for your investment.
I will give you an easy example. Would you take real madrid at 2,2 at the start of every game in the season? of course you would, because you know they win more than half of the games. In other words, it is totally OUT OF LINE.
How do you know it? Is it just me gambling if I assume that they will win more than half of the games? Is there nothing more than that? Why don't you find this kind of odds (except for some games)?
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:34 pm

Gambling is just another word for investing. It just sounds worse because of the society.
As long as you have an edge against a liquid market, name it gambling, betting, investing, or as you wish, but it WILL be profitable.
So you naming it "gambling" means nothing to me.
It is not about what you "know", you don't need to be a guru to place value bets. You just need to get a higher payout than the efficient liquid market.
Just try and guess why an arbitrage opportunity is created out of static (or not so dynamic) lines.. I'm sure it is crazy drunk gamblers at the pub placing huge amounts supporting their team ;)
By the way, of course I don't look at weather forecasts (except in mexican baseball, they postpone many games), it is just an example to prove a point, but I do check other variables, of course.
But yes, keep arbing and missing half of your potential profits..
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:04 pm

middler wrote:
By the way, of course I don't look at weather forecasts (except in mexican baseball, they postpone many games), it is just an example to prove a point, but I do check other variables, of course.
But yes, keep arbing and missing half of your potential profits..
And Roland Garros ahahah, all the matches were postponed.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:16 pm

What would be the point of me posting results?
If it's positive then you'll say the sample is too small, if the result is negative then you'll say see I told you so.
Using the search button and seeking the results that others have achieved on the site would be too hard for ya eh?
Kudos (Sarcasm) for describing a pyramid betting scheme as a "good betting strategy", feel free to be quiet at any moment to save yourself further embarrassment.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:13 am

fairpunter wrote: RoosterDonky and Middler, if you find odds out of market for yesterday euro 2016 matches for Austria win 1.80, and Portugal win 1.60, what would you do ?
and main question,  if we say that bookies know results before matches begin what can you say about value betting ?
please reply to my 2 questions as you can
Picking 2 losing valuebets means nothing, those odds were great and should have been bet.  Period.  It's not about losing 2 individual bets, it's about having an edge on the general market.  If you consistently bet those odds, day after day, hundreds of times, you will come out ahead.  That's the point...not just chosing 2 losing bets.  Would you have bet Portugal at odds 3.0?  Value = value and in the end value bets make money.

I've had 2 winning months in Pinnacle in the last several years...and yes, February was one of them because I placed large amounts on the Phillipino basketball league.  That's a small market and in no way does it represent accurate odds on Pinny as the liquidity is too low.  You will not see that occuring at the euros.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:56 am

Did we say that bookies know the outcome beforehand?
Or did we say that Pinny had the most accurate odds?

And just to state the obv, which is a shame that I have to do, the odds for a $200 max bet for a  Republic of the Congo Women's League Basket Weaving Championship or a Trans Gendered Philipino Midget tossing division 3 qualifier or whatever sport you buddy mentioned before doesn't count.
Last edited by RoosterDonky on Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:03 am

fairpunter wrote: RoosterDonky and Middler, if you find odds out of market for yesterday euro 2016 matches for Austria win 1.80, and Portugal win 1.60, what would you do ?
and main question,  if we say that bookies know results before matches begin what can you say about value betting ?
please reply to my 2 questions as you can
I ask you in a different way. If you find odds of coin toss market where chances are 50: 50 for heads win 2.1 what would you do? It's obvious that you don't know what will be the results of this bet but you definately have edge over the market. Even if you loose 1,2...10 these kind of bets in a row it doesn't mean your decision was wrong if you decide to bet.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:29 am

Because you put a B.S. statement in your question like...............
" if we say that bookies know results before matches begin"
Which is an obv attempt to state that the idea that has made people money in this chat and many other threads on this site, which you still refuse to look for, is based on the belief that us dumb rubes believe that pinnacle knows the result beforehand.
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