Pinnacle results

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pescu23
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Pinnacle results

Sun Aug 11, 2013 8:07 pm

I have been arbing for the last three months and in most of the weeks all my bank finished on Pinnacle.

I have been thinking about just betting in pinnacle not covering the result in the softbook. Do you think is a dangerous strategy?? Or maybe is a tendence??
anormal1992
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Re: Pinnacle results

Sun Aug 11, 2013 9:19 pm

the most stupid idea that i have ever heard....Everyone (99%) is a long term loser at pinny and long term winner at soft bookies so the value exist at soft bookies odds.You can try betting only at soft bookies and you will be a long term winner but it depends on bankroll and dont think you can afford 10 loses in a row,that can lose all your bankroll!
Yngwie
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 8:26 am

Numbers don't lie..Who knows, maybe we're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at Pinnacle? :D

However, if we were making value bets (not covering other side at Pinnacle), then you would probably risk less since as Anormal1992 mentioned, 10 loses in a row may put your bankroll in jeopardy so you won't be able to risk %10 of your bankroll since you're not arbing. You will have to use much more conservative stakes.

I think Pescu wanted to say, he is thinking about just betting in softbook, not covering other side at Pinnacle since like all arbers, his Pinnacle and asian books balance keep decreasing.

If you do it, this is called value betting and you must use very conservative stakes. Will it work? You can be sure about that.

My results are not different then yours, numbers don't lie.

My Pinnacle Balance Results Year-to-Date (Just arbs, not straight bets)

Jan 2013 Pinnacle -11.536€
Fen 2013 Pinnacle +9.960€
Mar 2013 Pinnacle +31.454€

Apr 2013 Pinnacle -87.749€
May 2013 Pinnacle -76.499€
Jun 2013 Pinnacle  -24.292€

Jul 2013 Pinnacle +9.663€

Pinnacle side is -149.000€ so far this year.

So If I had did not covered other side at Pinnacle, I would win149k more. (sigh)

Over the long haul, you're doomed to lose at Pinnacle and asian books. You will always win more in softbooks since you're betting value odds. If you bet these odds at Pinnacle, there's no value. You will breakeven or lose money. There's a serious difference between betting something at 1.90 and 2.30.
Last edited by Yngwie on Tue Aug 13, 2013 6:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
pescu23
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 9:00 am

Yngwie wrote: Numbers don't lie..Who knows, maybe we're leaving a fortune on table by covering other side at Pinnacle? :D

However, if we were making value bets (not covering other side at Pinnacle), then you would probably risk less since as Anormal1992 mentioned, 10 loses in a row may put your bankroll in jeopardy so you won't be able to risk %10 of your bankroll since you're not arbing. You will have to use much more conservative stakes.

I think Pescu wanted to say, he is thinking about just betting in softbook, not covering other side at Pinnacle since like all arbers, his Pinnacle and asian books balance keep decreasing.

If you do it, this is called value betting and you must use very conservative stakes. Will it work? You can be sure about that.

My results are not different then yours, numbers don't lie.

My Pinnacle Balance Results Year-to-Date (Just arbs, not straight bets)

Jan 2013 Pinnacle -11.536€
Fen 2013 Pinnacle +9.960€
Mar 2013 Pinnacle +31.454€

Apr 2013 Pinnacle -87.749€
May 2013 Pinnacle -76.499€
Jun 2013 Pinnacle  -24.292€

Jul 2013 Pinnacle +9.663€

Pinnacle side is -149.000€ so far this year.

Over the long haul, you're doomed to lose at Pinnacle and asian books. You will always win more in softbooks since you're betting value odds. If you bet these odds at Pinnacle, there's no value. You will breakeven or lose money. There's a serious difference between betting something at 1.90 and 2.30.
Thanks Yngwie!! that is a nice answer. I have BetonValue, they give me a list of valuebets, Im going to place 100 hundred bets with microstakes and I will share the results :)
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 1:34 pm

These ideas are puzzling my mind for many years now. Never had the courage to implement them though.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 3:11 pm

The less of the traffic they have, the softer their lines are.

That is why if one wants to exploit them - do so on mondays/holidays etc - days when fixed lines show their advantage over Pinnacle Sports ones.

Still tricky though.
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 6:46 pm

i mention that when you have bet with 50% of win. You can get about 22loss per row in a many millions of bets. I simulate it and 22loss row can destroy you very easily. 16+ rows are very often too.
Yngwie
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Re: Pinnacle results

Mon Aug 12, 2013 9:51 pm

20 or 22 loss in a row may happen, that's true if you're a straight bettor..

But if you're betting on Pinnacle Lean..this is very unlikely..maybe impossible :D

Pinnacle is not a sportsbook. They're a betting syndicate. Unlike other books, they take positions in many many games.

Still good idea to be conservative in money management in order to reduce stress level. I don't know how much is your bankroll but I think %1 or %2 is good. If your bankroll is not large (under 50k), you can go for %3 as well. Anything beyond %3 would be dangerous since you will bet lots of games.
Last edited by Yngwie on Mon Aug 12, 2013 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
whitesnake
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 6:37 am

Yngwie, with all the respect, displaying numbers such as stakes or balances at bookies might discourage small bank players..
13mil
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:35 am

i maybe barking completely up the wrong tree but.....
The thing i find most beatiful about it all. Is that arbers are able to arb because pinnacle put up high enough odds for an arb to event, but on the losers, there are a couple of threads on sbr that confirm the same evidence.
Pescu23 (its only a suggestion) why dont you lay the side of every arb pinnacle are involved with. Because by the figures from yngwie, and who knows how many other big timers, including sbr members threads, who point out the same thing, pinnacle have got picking the loser down to a fine art.
Maybe where marathon have gone wrong, because i read somewhere they used to be involved in a high percentage of arbs, is that they never worked out what pinnacle/asian/carribean books did. Invite the arber, but only to bet on the loser. I apologise in advance if i'm talking crap.
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pescu23
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:53 am

Thanks for your opinion 13mil :)
whitesnake
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:08 am

As far as I know, the winning formula of Pinnacle is to adjust their odds very fast by watching sharp players. This way they avoid soft lines, thus not offering value bets as soft books do.
djordjeno
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:18 pm

Maybe arbers loosing money on pinnacle on long time, but sharp players surely wins.
In fact, pinnacle just getting their juice. Nothing else :)
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 1:55 pm

I was living with the impression arbers are sharp players as well...
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Re: Pinnacle results

Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:21 pm

Yngwie wrote: Pinnacle is not a sportsbook. They're a betting syndicate. Unlike other books, they take positions in many many games.
Exactly. Three or four years ago I was sitting at Miami International on layover talking to some guy on his way from Curacao to Vegas. Now anyone who reads the fine print should now that Willemstad, Curacao is Grand Central Station for Pinnacle. This guy told me his impression from a week of poking around on that sunburnt Dutch rock off the coast of Venezuela was that is wasn't so much a bookmaker as it was a betting syndicate mostly consisting of New York and Miami Jews (perhaps not surprising they chose Curacao as it has one of the oldest functioning Synagogues in the Americas though back in the 1600's the big business going down there wasn't betting but rather the slave trade).
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