Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
davidelliott52
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:16 pm

sorry to bring this old thread up but really starting to look into value betting, yngie why would you not value bet with tennis?
risilloch
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Re: Value betting questions

Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:25 pm

davidelliott52 wrote: sorry to bring this old thread up but really starting to look into value betting, yngie why would you not value bet with tennis?


i would say it is because of retirals and the variation of tennis rules across bookies.
testez
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:55 am

does any of the vbettors here take the same arb in all the available bookies? im reffering to the situations when all the arbs respect your criteria.
short example :

u look for arb value >2%

pinny odd  2.1  bet365 odd - 2.02
                        whill      odd - 2.01
                        betngo odd - 2.01
                        otherbook  - 2.0

the question is  u vbet all cases(that respect your criteria) or only the highest value one?

i think with a good and adjusted BR management u should take all.
De Graaf
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Sep 03, 2015 3:14 pm

testez wrote: i think with a good and adjusted BR management u should take all.

No. Mathematically speaking 365 is all you need in your example.
risilloch
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Re: Value betting questions

Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:28 pm

Its not simply a mathematical question.

It depends if you believe that stake size is used by bookmakers to detect arbers.

If you think they don't then stick your entire stake on bet365.
If you think they do then stick a 1/4 of the stake on each soft
davidelliott52
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 10:01 am

been trying value betting for the last month with low stakes and low limit accounts, after 100bets my roi is 18%. here are two tables the first is bets sorted by sport, how many bets, total stake, total profit and loss and average odds on each sport, the second is sorted by odds in certain catergories. I know this isnt enough bets and id like 1000 to get some serious data, 99% of these bets have been taken from an arb against pinnicle or sbo bet and the other 1% taken from betfair or matchbook. I have been taking mixed rules tennis with the theory of if pinny are offering 2 on a player to win and paddypower are offering 2.3 the mixed rules on retirement is a lesser force than the size of the value on offer if that makes sense. any feedback and tips would be much appreciated as I think this will be the way forward for me looking at how much ive lost at pinnacle this year

tennis 49 £250.00 £48.63 100 19.5
rugby 8 £40.00 £0.55 100 1.4
american football 12 £69.70 £21.00 100 30.1
hockey 3 £15.00 £9.25 100 61.7
baseball 9 £45.00 £13.10 100 29.1
snooker 1 £5.00 £5.50 100 110.0
soccer 18 £90.00 -£2.06 100 -2.3


-2 29 159.7 21 – 6 – 2 59.86 100 37.5
2 – 2.49 49 245.5 19 – 27 – 3 -21.77 100 -8.9
2.5 – 2.99 15 75 8 – 7 – 0 30.01 100 40.0
3 – 4 7 £32.50 4 – 3 – 0 £27.87 100 85.8
512.7 52 – 43 – 5 95.97 100 18.7
AnnaPrentice
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:27 am

Grats with your 100 bet rungood. As for the rest of your post I have no idea what kind of input you want.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:58 am

Interesting post by davidelliot52. The 18% ROI is not sustainable IMO.
davidelliott52
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:31 pm

annaprentince - if you ignore the column with 100 in, the first is the sport the second is the ammount of bets in that sport the third is total stake the 4th is profit and loss and the 5th is percentage return.
on the bottom table its split into categories of decimal odds, below 2, 2 to 3, 2.4 to 2.99 and 3-4 (not placed any bets above 4)

arbusers - i agree 18% wont be sustainable but im hoping for anything above 8%. if its ok ill keep the board updated every 100 bets and hopefully get some feedback from the more experienced guys
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:43 pm

davidelliot you underestimate the randomness factor. Pure luck will determine your results until you are well into thousands of bets.
So good luck!! :D
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arbusers
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:40 pm

davidelliott52 wrote: but im hoping for anything above 8%.
You should be happy with anything above 3%. If your system allows you to place large bets, then money will come from volumes.
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:05 pm

Actually a very high  ROI isn't  good. It means you are missing many good value spots where ROI isn't so high
davidelliott52
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 4:30 pm

qbet - could you elaborate please?

arbusers, a the minute im sticking to £5 stakes or 10eur stakes very occaisonaly if the odds are low going to £10 but keeping it to low stakes to maxamise my limited accounts, I dont like the risk factor of bets even as big as £100 but after 1000 bets if i see clear profit ill double my stakes and keep doing so every 1000 bets, a lot of those bets have had a max stake size to low to arb and are only used when I cant arb. Arb is my first preference then value bet with low stake if the arb isnt worthwhile
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:09 pm

after 7 k vbets placed, i can tell u this:

1. as the chief said, above 3% is good.(cause of a huge bad streak i got 3,,96%)
2. be careful with your staking, 1% is way to much. the variance can be huge and a a bad streak can really ruin your BR(ive experienced this).
raizzak
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Re: Value betting questions

Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:55 pm

we mean yield right? profit/total amount wagered? In 1500+ bets it is more like 8.5% for me
2. be careful with your staking, 1% is way to much. the variance can be huge and a a bad streak can really ruin your BR(ive experienced this).
In most of the cases 1% is perfectly fine or even too safe. I've did a theoritical research before i started with 5% edge on the fair price the max possible losing streak is 14 losers it is mathematicely impossible to make a bigger one
Last edited by raizzak on Fri Sep 25, 2015 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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