Value betting questions

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
davidelliott52
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 5:40 pm

yesterday on the nba i placed 8 bets at coral on over under 1st h basketball total points. all bets gave me a decent arb with pinnacle and other soft books. the coral odds were way out of line from other bookies emphasizing the value. All 8 lost, luckily i am already in profit from value betting and still am even after this run but imagine if each bet was 2% of my bankroll, id be 16% down now and not feeling confident to keep going
antemartic
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:08 pm

davidelliott52 wrote: yesterday on the nba i placed 8 bets at coral on over under 1st h basketball total points. all bets gave me a decent arb with pinnacle and other soft books. the coral odds were way out of line from other bookies emphasizing the value. All 8 lost, luckily i am already in profit from value betting and still am even after this run but imagine if each bet was 2% of my bankroll, id be 16% down now and not feeling confident to keep going
Sometimes happens. There are bigger losing streaks. But if it is value more often there would be winning streaks. 2% for me is to big stakes. It's ok when start betting but when bankroll rise it should be go down to 0.5%. For me that's perfect and I suggest to use it
De Graaf
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:34 pm

davidelliott52 wrote: yesterday on the nba i placed 8 bets at coral on over under 1st h basketball total points. all bets gave me a decent arb with pinnacle and other soft books. the coral odds were way out of line from other bookies emphasizing the value. All 8 lost, luckily i am already in profit from value betting and still am even after this run but imagine if each bet was 2% of my bankroll, id be 16% down now and not feeling confident to keep going
I use 2 % flat. Am down 20 % from yesterday and the day before combined. 
Outcome of a bet have nothing to do with value betting, or any bet placing for that matter. I feel it is essential for this to be pointed out.
It either works or it doesn't.

In the approach you describe (compare to pinny > take soft side) just shoot em as you see them. 8 is not a number to be stressed about anyhow.

Edit: Hope you don't find my comment rude. Just thought to mention I am in the boat you described.
Last edited by De Graaf on Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
cristi13
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:15 pm

2% is overkill and should never be attempted. Not only is it mathematically dangerous but also psychologically and that's where the real problems appear.
De Graaf
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:41 pm

cristi13 wrote: 2% is overkill and should never be attempted. Not only is it mathematically dangerous but also psychologically and that's where the real problems appear.
I use locals, so yes I should have mentioned my circumstances are a bit different. 2 % may get you overexposed mathematically*, you are most likely correct, so yes. I would'n know much about it.
It's because of the psychological aspect that I brought it up as well.
My take is that the problems that you imply stemming from stress and variance are avoidable, at least that is my suggestion.
By this I don't mean that it won't feel like a sinking hole on some days, it just means that one can avoid doing the wrong thing about said sinking hole.

The other thing that goes for me is that it is a side thing.
If it is the only thing that puts food on the table than the psychological aspect is most crucial and mistakes, most likely, cannot be avoided.

Edit: *online
antemartic
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Re: Value betting questions

Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:12 pm

De Graaf wrote:
cristi13 wrote: 2% is overkill and should never be attempted. Not only is it mathematically dangerous but also psychologically and that's where the real problems appear.
I use locals, so yes I should have mentioned my circumstances are a bit different. 2 % may get you overexposed mathematically*, you are most likely correct, so yes. I would'n know much about it.
It's because of the psychological aspect that I brought it up as well.
My take is that the problems that you imply stemming from stress and variance are avoidable, at least that is my suggestion.
By this I don't mean that it won't feel like a sinking hole on some days, it just means that one can avoid doing the wrong thing about said sinking hole.

The other thing that goes for me is that it is a side thing.
If it is the only thing that puts food on the table than the psychological aspect is most crucial and mistakes, most likely, cannot be avoided.

Edit: *online
It seems like simple question but it's not. So will try explain. Stake should depend on few factors.
1.odds
2. value
3. number of picks you have
It's hard all to explain. Think this is something what you must learn with your mistakes. Impossible to explain all factors here.
avskum
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Re: Value betting questions

Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:53 am

How do we tackle 3 leg arbs as value bets? Do we bet two soft books or do we bet the one with the most over valued odds?

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