Arbusers

On soccer?

I have been led to believe that SBObet is sharper than Pinnacle on soccer. I have been thinking about value betting on pinnacle when they are way off compared to SBOBet is that a bad idea?

Here is an example:

Juventus - Torino

Pinnacle
1: 1.27 / X: 6.1 / 2: 14.3

SBOBet
1: 1.28 / X: 5.4 / 2: 9.75

If we add the overlay at sbobet here are true odds for 1X2:

1.37 / 5.77 / 10.42

Meaning that if we bet on Torino at pinnacle we would have a value bet if the theory saying that SBObet is sharper than pinnacle on soccer (note that betting the draw would also be a value bet).

Let me know if this is making any sense

First mistake: You can´t add overlay equally to all outcomes.

Then why do you believe SBO is sharper than Pinnacle and calculate fair odds with SBO. Pinnacle has much lower juice on 1X2 than SBO. 

From my calculations with Pinnacle fair odds would be more like

1: 1,28
X: 6,38
2: 15,91

MX wrote: First mistake: You can´t add overlay equally to all outcomes

Exactly

99% of the time the heavy favorite has more overlay than the other outcomes so your assumption based on that fact you posted is wrong.

The match is Juventus - Torino and you are backing Livorno ....lol

Pinnacle usually has lower margin (juice) on football than SBObet. The average margin at the moment for Pinnacle is 3.45% and 5.70% for SBO. Data from: http://checkbestodds.com/bookmakers/margins-ranking

raizzak wrote:

MX wrote: First mistake: You can´t add overlay equally to all outcomes

Exactly

99% of the time the heavy favorite has more overlay than the other outcomes so your assumption based on that fact you posted is wrong.

you guys are both absolutely right but I have not learned yet how to properly calculate overlays. The overlay is distributed in regards to where the bets are going or the odds? Maybe both? If so, is there an accurate way to calculate true odds? I'm not looking for you to tell me how it's done, I just want to know if it's doable

anormal1992 wrote: The match is Juventus - Torino and you are backing Livorno ....lol

Oups that my bad

when iam watching live odds in asian sometimes you can see that some bookmaker have still little bit higher odds on over or handicap like others asians... That means that they would like to accept bets on odds. But they sure doing it for their own profit not for your profit. just look at some matches and you will be know results of the match before it will finnish

raizzak wrote:

MX wrote: First mistake: You can´t add overlay equally to all outcomes

99% of the time the heavy favorite has more overlay than the other outcomes so your assumption based on that fact you posted is wrong.

This is wrong.

Anyway the 1X2 market is irrelevant in Asia and even in Pinny it's not always the most accurate. You need to look at the AH markets and understand how they relate to each other if you want to spot inefficiencies. (You can actually derive the 1X2 market from two of pk,0.25 and +0.5 markets) .

interesting thought qbet...

So if I get your point right, on any AH market, if odds are like 1.95/1.95 on pinnacle, the goal is to find a bet on either side above 2.00 in order to make it a value bet?

Porthugz wrote:

anormal1992 wrote: The match is Juventus - Torino and you are backing Livorno ....lol

Yeah exactly, you are going to win so much money with that mindset! Everybody knows that money is made when betting the favorites...

Check carefully what you wrote...i suppose you wanted to back Torino instead of Livorno!

Porthugz wrote: interesting thought qbet...

So if I get your point right, on any AH market, if odds are like 1.95/1.95 on pinnacle, the goal is to find a bet on either side above 2.00 in order to make it a value bet?

That would be true if there was no bias on either outcome  but it's  its really hard to say. On the same market SBO could have 1.88/2.02 but can we really say that the 2.02 has value now? or perhaps the 1.95 at Pinnacle ? Probably neither.

Usually lines move at Asia first so if you assume that a price change is a correction you might have time to take the off line at Pinnacle, if the move is not significant. But there are so many fluctuations that it's really hard to say whether a price change is really an improvement.

"To counteract this, bookmakers work a favourite/long-shot bias into their odds. Instead of offering 1.05 and 8.5 on the two teams, they might offer 1.1 and 6.2 on St. Helens and Castleford respectively, hence reducing the risk of Castleford's large price. Bookmakers in general want to lay the favourites as they are the most popular with punters, and the risk is far less than taking on the outsiders."

From an article on betfair called "The Art of Bookmaking"

So If I understand properly, the bigger part of the overlay is placed on underdogs and not on favorites?

CheckBestOdds wrote: Pinnacle usually has lower margin (juice) on football than SBObet. The average margin at the moment for Pinnacle is 3.45% and 5.70% for SBO. Data from: http://checkbestodds.com/bookmakers/margins-ranking

Not really. Pinnacle juice differs from market to market. For example, juice can be higher in south america leagues such as bolivia, colombia.

That's interesting. I guess they really did a good job in putting users into a gray line. Not knowing that unless dug up.